The path of least resistance

The report finds that the EU ETS region is increasingly importing electricity from non-EU neighbors with high carbon intensities, effectively importing emissions and creating 'offshore carbon havens'. In 2019, the EU ETS region imported 26 million tonnes of CO2, with a net import of 20 million tonnes. The authors argue that the disparity in carbon pricing gives a competitive advantage to high-carbon generators in countries like Turkey, Ukraine, and the Western Balkans. To combat this, the report recommends a border carbon adjustment (BCA) on gross electricity imports to protect the integrity of EU climate policy and incentivize decarbonization in neighboring states. It also warns that planned increases in interconnection capacity (31% by 2030) and new coal power projects (up to 57GW) in connected non-EU countries will exacerbate the problem.

• Countries within the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) are seeing a rise in electricity imports from nations with zero or near-zero carbon pricing, with net imports increasing from 3TWh in 2017 to 21TWh in 2019.
• In 2019, the EU ETS region imported an estimated 26 million tonnes of CO2, resulting in a net import of 20 million tonnes of CO2. This volume of emissions is comparable to the annual emissions produced by Italy's coal fleet.
• Gross electricity imports into the EU ETS region in 2019 were valued at
  .6bn; if these imports had been subject to the EU ETS carbon price, it would have generated
  630m in revenue.
• Interconnection capacity between the EU and non-EU countries is projected to increase by 31% by 2030, with 15% of this expansion occurring with the Western Balkans.
• Approximately 57GW of new coal power is being planned or constructed in countries connected or soon-to-be connected to EU grids, representing a 53% increase in coal capacity for those countries. The largest planned additions are in Turkey (34GW), Egypt (11GW), Bosnia & Herzegovina (4GW), and Serbia (2GW).

APA

Rosslowe, D. C., Moore, C., Jones, D., & MacDonald, P. (2020). The path of least resistance. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/Ember-Path-of-least-resistance-2020.pdf

Chicago

Rosslowe, Dr Chris, Charles Moore, Dave Jones, and Phil MacDonald. The path of least resistance. Ember, 2020. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/Ember-Path-of-least-resistance-2020.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rosslowe |first1=Dr Chris |last2=Moore |first2=Charles |last3=Jones |first3=Dave |last4=MacDonald |first4=Phil |title=The path of least resistance |publisher=Ember |date=January 2020 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/Ember-Path-of-least-resistance-2020.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rosslowe2020path, author = {Rosslowe, Dr Chris and Moore, Charles and Jones, Dave and MacDonald, Phil}, title = {{The path of least resistance}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2020}, month = jan, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/Ember-Path-of-least-resistance-2020.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }