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The report analyzes the 2019 HRC voting records of 13 African member states, finding a significant lack of unity within the African Group. While South Africa, Rwanda, and Burkina Faso emerged as the strongest supporters of international human rights, Egypt, Eritrea, and Cameroon were the most opposed. The analysis highlights a recurring contradiction where many African states strongly support resolutions condemning Israel while opposing or abstaining from resolutions targeting other rights-abusing regimes. Overall, the report suggests a general unwillingness among African states to defend international human rights, with a noted decline in support since 2017.

The document investigates whether Russia exerts significant influence over African states in the UN Security Council (UNSC) by analyzing voting patterns between 2014 and 2020. It argues that Russia's influence over the A3 is often exaggerated, as statistical evidence shows that African member states remain more aligned with the P3 (US, UK, and France) and are largely independent of Russian vetoes and abstentions. While the A3 have increasingly sought to present unified positions on African peace and security issues, their voting behavior on non-African files shows a declining coincidence with Russian positions over time.

The document investigates whether Russia exerts significant influence over African states in the UN Security Council (UNSC) by analyzing voting patterns between 2014 and 2020. It argues that Russia's influence over the A3 is often exaggerated, as statistical evidence shows little coordination and a trend of increasing divergence. While the A3 are increasingly presenting unified positions on African issues, their voting behavior remains more aligned with the P3 (US, UK, and France) than with Russia. The brief concludes that Russia's role as a 'loud dissenter' has not translated into a strategic alliance with the African grouping.

The GCF Secretariat report for the period ending 31 July 2021 indicates that programming and implementation targets are largely on track, with 76% of the portfolio now under implementation. Key achievements include the approval of USD 1.2 billion in funding at the B.28 meeting and the adoption of the Integrated Results Management Framework (IRMF) at B.29. The Secretariat is working to diversify its private sector portfolio and improve direct access for entities. However, the Simplified Approval Process (SAP) targets are likely to remain unmet due to slow proposal development. The report also highlights the impact of COVID-19 on project expenditure and the ongoing efforts to finalize bilateral privileges and immunities agreements.

The Council on Strategic Risks suggests a series of questions for U.S. Senate confirmation hearings for Jill Hruby (nominated as Under Secretary for Nuclear Security and Administrator of the NNSA) and Heidi Shyu (nominated as Under Secretary for Research and Engineering at the DoD). The proposed questions focus on enhancing biotechnology leadership, improving interagency cooperation for biological threats, ensuring civilian oversight of nuclear weapons, and implementing safety recommendations at National Labs.

The report analyzes the 'Cloud Caliphate,' a 2.2 terabyte digital archive of Islamic State content hosted via NextCloud and Cloudflare. It examines the repository's composition, its role in maintaining a 'national biography' for a decentralized global movement, and its integration into a broader ecosystem of pro-Islamic State websites. The authors detail the archive's contents—ranging from historical 'genesis' files to tactical manuals—and provide policy recommendations for marginalizing such repositories by disrupting the networks and tools used to promote them.

Former OPCW Director-General Ahmet Üzümcü details the challenges of investigating chemical weapons use in Syria, the failure of the UN-led Joint Investigative Mechanism due to a Russian veto, and the subsequent creation of the OPCW's Investigation and Identification Team (IIT) to attribute responsibility for attacks.

The Council on Strategic Risks outlines critical priorities for the nominee for Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense (ASD(NCB)), focusing on biological threats highlighted by COVID-19, the erosion of chemical weapons norms, and the maintenance of civilian oversight of the U.S. nuclear enterprise.

The Council on Strategic Risks outlines key policy challenges and proposed Senate questioning for Ambassador Bonnie Jenkins' nomination as Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Affairs. The authors emphasize the need for the U.S. to address the erosion of norms against chemical weapons, vulnerabilities exposed by COVID-19 regarding biological threats, and the rising risks of nuclear proliferation and treaty dissolution. They suggest that the nominee should be questioned on strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention, managing the final destruction of U.S. chemical stockpiles by 2023, and reinvigorating 21st-century nuclear arms control.

The briefing assesses the critical role of the Chemical and Biological Defense Program (CBDP) in U.S. national security, highlighting its success in developing medical countermeasures for threats like Ebola and swine flu. Despite these capabilities, the authors report a decade-long decline in CBDP funding, which continued during the COVID-19 pandemic. The document recommends doubling the budget to $2 billion in the short term and increasing it to $6.5–$7 billion annually in subsequent years. It advocates for a shift toward 'rapid response platforms,' including nucleic-acid based therapeutics and metagenomic sequencing, while calling for clarified mission authorities to allow CBDP to respond to natural pandemics.

The document analyzes the historical development of the 'WMD paradigm' in the United States, which primarily equates WMD with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. The author argues that while this framework provided bureaucratic stability during the Cold War and post-9/11 era, it now creates a 'failure of imagination' by excluding other technologies—such as cyber weapons, drones, and synthetic biology—that can produce similar mass-casualty or mass-destruction effects. The text highlights a disconnect between the WMD paradigm and the actual historical record since 1990, noting that violent non-state actors often rely on conventional means and state actors frequently use CBRN for targeted assassinations or psychological impact rather than mass destruction.

The briefing examines the limitations of the current WMD paradigm, which focuses primarily on chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. By comparing the treatment of fentanyls and novichoks, the author illustrates how narrow definitions of WMD can lead to a misalignment of policy priorities, where a highly lethal but non-WMD designated substance like fentanyl causes more domestic death and economic damage than designated WMDs used in targeted assassinations. The author advocates for a shift toward a 'mass effects' framing to encompass systemic risks like climate change and pandemics, as well as emerging technologies like drone swarms.

The policy brief examines the 2021 UN Security Council agreement to keep the Bab al-Hawa border crossing open for humanitarian aid to Syria. It argues that Russia's support for the resolution, despite its preference for aid to flow through Damascus, was driven by a need to prevent the economic collapse of the al-Assad regime. The author highlights the role of a bilateral US-Russia deal and the diplomatic efforts of Ireland and Norway in securing the compromise. The brief also notes that while external stakeholders find the current fragile state of Syria acceptable, the lack of funding for reconstruction and regional instabilities—including COVID-19 and shifts in Iranian and US engagement—threaten long-term stability.

The briefing argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the primary ideological driver for terrorist groups, it acts as a risk multiplier. It identifies three channels of impact: the creation of recruitment opportunities due to food and livelihood insecurity; the erosion of state legitimacy when governments fail to respond effectively to climate-induced disasters; and the security instabilities caused by the global energy transition, which may strand assets in hydrocarbon-exporting states and increase the value of critical minerals in fragile regions.

The study analyzes conflict events across 272 Syrian subdistricts to determine the relationship between agricultural cycles, drought, and violence. It finds that both government and rebel-initiated attacks were more frequent during growing seasons, with dry conditions specifically correlating with an increase in government-initiated attacks over time.

The policy brief examines the regional dynamics surrounding Afghanistan, arguing that the country often serves as an arena where neighbors project their own existential security concerns and rivalries. It highlights the risks associated with the US military withdrawal in 2021, noting that while global powers like Russia and China have interests in the region, there is a critical lack of a credible multilateral platform for neighbors to coordinate. The author analyzes specific tensions, including the Iran-Saudi rivalry in the Gulf, the lead taken by Uzbekistan in Central Asia, and the deep-seated India-Pakistan conflict in South Asia, concluding that any Afghan normalization not endorsed by both India and Pakistan will be unsustainable.

The report identifies a rapidly growing, cross-platform Salafi ecosystem targeting Gen-Z, characterized by a shift from traditional long-form sermons to gamified and memetic content. It highlights the emergence of 'Islamogram' and the 'akh-right' subculture, which adopts alt-right aesthetics and tactics to wage a digital insurgency against liberal Muslims and democratic values. While much content remains focused on general religious guidance, the research identifies significant 'toxicity'—including sectarianism and misogyny—and notes a concerning convergence between Salafi and far-right online behaviors. The authors argue that traditional classifications of Salafism (quietist, politico, jihadist) are insufficient for this hybrid environment and recommend a move away from purely securitised responses toward a more nuanced, data-driven approach that addresses both the supply of charismatic influencers and the demand driven by legitimate socio-political grievances.

The document analyzes French involvement in the Lebanese Civil War from 1975 to 1982. It argues that France's official policy of neutrality and its slogan of preserving Lebanon's "integrity, sovereignty and unity" were rhetorical masks for a struggle to balance conflicting alliances. France's role shifted from early mediation attempts, such as the Couve de Murville mission, to a tacit acceptance of Syrian intervention in 1976 to prevent a PLO victory. The study details France's participation in UNIFIL and the Multinational Force (MNF), its economic role in reconstruction, and the strain on its relationship with Maronite militias, who felt abandoned by Paris. The analysis concludes that France remained largely powerless to change the war's course, often acting in compliance with United States interests.

The document analyzes the deadlock in Syria's reconstruction, focusing on the impact of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and the competing motivations of the US, Russia, and Iran. While the Assad regime has largely won the military conflict, it faces economic collapse and immense reconstruction costs. The US uses sanctions and a limited military presence in eastern Syria as leverage to force a UN-led political solution, while Russia and Iran seek to secure their strategic footprints in the Middle East. The authors suggest that US sanctions may act as a deterrent to reconstruction, potentially making the US a 'spoiler' in the process, while China's growing influence in the region may further dilute the efficacy of unilateral US pressure.

China's engagement in Iraq and Syria is primarily driven by economic logic and the Belt and Road Initiative, though it increasingly faces security risks from terrorism and political instability. In Iraq, China has become a top trading partner with a heavy focus on oil, while in Syria, it provides political cover for the Assad regime and explores limited reconstruction opportunities. The document argues that China lacks a unified regional strategy, instead employing a cautious, pragmatic, and piecemeal approach that balances economic opportunism with a traditional policy of non-interference, though the need to protect assets may eventually push Beijing toward more active counter-terrorism efforts.