Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council

The document investigates whether Russia exerts significant influence over African states in the UN Security Council (UNSC) by analyzing voting patterns between 2014 and 2020. It argues that Russia's influence over the A3 is often exaggerated, as statistical evidence shows that African member states remain more aligned with the P3 (US, UK, and France) and are largely independent of Russian vetoes and abstentions. While the A3 have increasingly sought to present unified positions on African peace and security issues, their voting behavior on non-African files shows a declining coincidence with Russian positions over time.

• Statistical analysis of UNSC voting from 2014 to 2020 provides little evidence of strategic coordination or growing alignment between Russia and the A3.
• African member states in the UNSC generally maintain a higher level of voting alignment with the P3 (US, UK, and France) than with Russia or China.
• The coincidence of 'in favour' votes between the A3 and Russia declined from 91% in 2014 to 72% in 2020, while alignment with P3 members remained between 91-93% in 2020.
• A3 members typically avoid voting against resolutions, preferring to abstain on contentious issues; between 2014 and 2020, only three 'against' votes were cast by A3 members.
• There is very little evidence of the A3 collectively aligning with Russia's oppositional votes, with only one instance of an A3 member voting against a resolution that Russia also voted against (South Africa in 2019 regarding Venezuela).
• African states are increasingly using collective positions and inter-institutional links with the African Union (AU) to increase their agency on peace and security issues, which dominate the UNSC agenda.

APA

Singh, P., & de Carvalho, G. (2021). Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Policy-Insights-118-singh-de-carvalho.pdf

Chicago

Singh, Priyal, and Gustavo de Carvalho. Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council. Institute for Security Studies, 2021. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Policy-Insights-118-singh-de-carvalho.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Singh |first1=Priyal |last2=de Carvalho |first2=Gustavo |title=Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2021 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Policy-Insights-118-singh-de-carvalho.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{singh2021walking, author = {Singh, Priyal and de Carvalho, Gustavo}, title = {{Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Policy-Insights-118-singh-de-carvalho.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }