Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council

The document investigates whether Russia exerts significant influence over African states in the UN Security Council (UNSC) by analyzing voting patterns between 2014 and 2020. It argues that Russia's influence over the A3 is often exaggerated, as statistical evidence shows little coordination and a trend of increasing divergence. While the A3 are increasingly presenting unified positions on African issues, their voting behavior remains more aligned with the P3 (US, UK, and France) than with Russia. The brief concludes that Russia's role as a 'loud dissenter' has not translated into a strategic alliance with the African grouping.

• Statistical analysis of UNSC voting patterns from 2014 to 2020 provides little evidence of strategic alignment or coordination between Russia and the A3.
• Voting behavior of elected African member states in the UNSC is more closely aligned with the P3 (US, UK, and France) and remains largely independent of Russian vetoes and abstentions.
• The coincidence of 'in favour' votes between the A3 and Russia declined from 91% in 2014 to 72% in 2020, while coincidence with P3 members remained higher, ranging from 9193% in 2020.
• A3 members typically avoid voting against resolutions, preferring to abstain on contentious issues; between 2014 and 2020, only three 'against' votes were cast by A3 members (Senegal in 2016, Cte dIvoire in 2018, and South Africa in 2019).
• There is very low coordination in opposing resolutions; only once did an A3 member (South Africa in 2019 regarding Venezuela) vote against a draft resolution that Russia also voted against.
• African states are increasingly attempting to act as agents rather than subjects in the UNSC by presenting unified positions on African topics, often informed by African Union Peace and Security Council decisions.

APA

Singh, P., & de Carvalho, G. (2021). Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Policy-Insights-118-singh-de-carvalho.pdf

Chicago

Singh, Priyal, and Gustavo de Carvalho. Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2021. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Policy-Insights-118-singh-de-carvalho.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Singh |first1=Priyal |last2=de Carvalho |first2=Gustavo |title=Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=October 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Policy-Insights-118-singh-de-carvalho.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{singh2021walking, author = {Singh, Priyal and de Carvalho, Gustavo}, title = {{Walking with the Bear? Russia and the A3 in the UN Security Council}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = oct, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Policy-Insights-118-singh-de-carvalho.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }