Beyond Weapons of Mass Destruction: Time for a New Paradigm?

The briefing examines the limitations of the current WMD paradigm, which focuses primarily on chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. By comparing the treatment of fentanyls and novichoks, the author illustrates how narrow definitions of WMD can lead to a misalignment of policy priorities, where a highly lethal but non-WMD designated substance like fentanyl causes more domestic death and economic damage than designated WMDs used in targeted assassinations. The author advocates for a shift toward a 'mass effects' framing to encompass systemic risks like climate change and pandemics, as well as emerging technologies like drone swarms.

• The traditional WMD paradigm, focused on CBRN weapons, may no longer fit 21st-century threats because it neglects systemic risks with mass-destruction potential, such as global pandemics, cyberattacks, and climate change.
• Recent use of CBRN weapons by state and non-state actors has shifted toward tactical applications with tailored effects, such as assassinations or targeted neighborhood attacks, rather than mass destruction.
• Fentanyl and its analogs cause significant mass harm in the U.S., contributing to approximately 50,000 deaths per year and costing the economy $78.5 billion annually, yet they are not formally designated as WMDs.
• The debate over designating fentanyl as a WMD involves a trade-off: such a designation could unlock national security resources for detection and disruption, but might also restrict the medical availability of the drug and blur the line between counter-WMD and counter-narcotics missions.
• Novichoks are designated as WMDs due to their Soviet-era development as chemical warfare agents, yet their actual use has been limited to targeted assassinations with low casualty rates compared to the opioid crisis.
• The UK's decontamination efforts following Novichok attacks in Salisbury and Amesbury were extensive, requiring up to 355 days and costing approximately $16 million.
• Emerging technologies, including offensive cyber weapons and drone swarms, have the potential to generate mass effects that rise to the level of a notional WMD.

APA

Bajema, N. E. (2021). Beyond Weapons of Mass Destruction: Time for a New Paradigm? The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Beyond-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction-Time-for-a-New-Paradigm_BRIEFER-13_2021_02_01-2.pdf

Chicago

Bajema, Natasha E. Beyond Weapons of Mass Destruction: Time for a New Paradigm? The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Beyond-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction-Time-for-a-New-Paradigm_BRIEFER-13_2021_02_01-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bajema |first1=Natasha E. |title=Beyond Weapons of Mass Destruction: Time for a New Paradigm? |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=1 February 2021 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Beyond-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction-Time-for-a-New-Paradigm_BRIEFER-13_2021_02_01-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bajema2021beyond, author = {Bajema, Natasha E.}, title = {{Beyond Weapons of Mass Destruction: Time for a New Paradigm?}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = feb, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Beyond-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction-Time-for-a-New-Paradigm_BRIEFER-13_2021_02_01-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }