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The document examines youth radicalisation in Africa as a complex phenomenon driven by a combination of 'push' and 'pull' factors. It argues that while religious ideology is often used as a justification, the actual drivers are frequently rooted in political repression, systemic corruption, socio-economic exclusion, and weakened family structures. The paper emphasizes that responses must be nuanced and evidence-based, moving beyond a 'one size fits all' approach to address specific local and structural vulnerabilities.

The study finds that ethnic civil wars have indeed declined since the mid-1990s, supporting Ted Robert Gurr's projections. The authors demonstrate that this pacifying trend is associated with increased government accommodation, specifically through the granting of group rights, power-sharing, and democratization, which reduce the probability of conflict onset. Additionally, regional autonomy and peacekeeping operations are found to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict termination. Out-of-sample predictions show that a theory-driven model based on accommodative politics far outperforms a simple time-trend model in predicting the actual decline of ethnic conflict from 2000 to 2013.

The policy brief examines how domestic xenophobia contradicts South Africa's 'diplomacy of ubuntu' and its aspirations for African leadership. It highlights specific incidents of violence and government failures, suggesting that South Africa must address the root causes of intolerance domestically and regionalise its policy responses to reclaim its international standing.

The document argues that transitioning from fossil fuel-based electric power to clean renewable energy is a public health imperative. It details how climate change exacerbates respiratory, cardiovascular, and mental health issues, and how the Clean Power Plan's goal to reduce carbon pollution by 32% below 2005 levels by 2030 will prevent thousands of premature deaths and asthma attacks. The toolkit provides clinicians with messaging and model letters to influence state policymakers, while explicitly arguing against nuclear power due to radiation risks and waste management failures.

The EU-Turkey deal, implemented in March 2016, aimed to reduce irregular arrivals by establishing a 'one in, one out' resettlement formula for Syrian refugees. While the author notes the deal and accompanying border closures in Eastern and South Eastern Europe have successfully deterred arrivals, this has come at a high humanitarian cost. Refugees are now stranded in squalid conditions in Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia, or are forced onto more dangerous smuggling routes, including the Libya-Italy crossing. The author argues that the deal may undermine the international principle of 'non-refoulement' and that the EU's focus on deterrence has created a 'homemade humanitarian crisis'.

The author criticises the EU-Turkey deal reached on 18 March 2016, asserting that it fails to end irregular migration and instead leads to human rights violations, including the forced return of migrants and appalling detention conditions in Greece. The text argues that the EU is using non-binding 'statements' to avoid democratic scrutiny and parliamentary oversight. It proposes alternatives such as the yearly resettlement of 500,000 refugees over six years, humanitarian admission programmes, and labour mobility programs to replace the current focus on deterrence and criminalisation.

Between 1919 and 1920, a civil society-led humanitarian effort rescued approximately 200,000 malnourished children from Central Europe, particularly Vienna, by hosting them in various European countries. Italian cities like Milan, Bologna, and Reggio Emilia played a significant role through 'trains of brotherhood,' providing relief and temporary shelter to children from a former enemy state. This initiative facilitated diplomatic reconciliation between Italy and Austria, though it faced opposition from fascist groups and was closed by the Italian government in June 1920. The author draws a parallel between this historical event and contemporary Italian civil society efforts to establish humanitarian corridors for refugees from Syria and East/Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) helped MTN develop the Situational Awareness and Integrated Response (SAIR) system, an open-source informatics tool used to gather intelligence and manage security in volatile markets across Africa and the Middle East.

The report examines 'anti-ISIS foreign fighters', finding they are generally older than Islamist fighters, predominantly male, and frequently U.S. military veterans. It identifies the YPG and Peshmerga as the most popular affiliations and analyzes push factors like frustration with international responses and pull factors such as the desire to protect persecuted minorities. The document also explores the complex and inconsistent legal frameworks across Western nations regarding private citizens participating in foreign conflicts.

The report examines the recruitment of Turkish citizens into ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, identifying a total of 2,000 to 2,200 Turkish nationals who travelled to Iraq and Syria. It distinguishes between the recruitment styles of the two groups, noting that ISIS attracts more recruits through 'pop jihadist' propaganda and lower entry barriers, while Nusra relies on disciplined, historical al-Qaeda networks. Key push factors include personal alienation and socio-economic dislocation, particularly in Kurdish-majority areas and neighbourhoods affected by urban renewal. Pull factors include online Turkish-language propaganda, opposition to the Assad regime, and a specific focus on opposing the PKK. The report also details Ankara's response, including police outreach and Diyanet sermons, while noting the government's framing of the issue as a global problem driven by the Syrian regime and ineffective Western cooperation.

The report analyzes armed conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) statistics, noting a recent upsurge in both the number of conflicts and battle casualties in 2014. While long-term trends since the 1950s show a decline in warfare deaths and a shift from interstate to internal conflicts, 2014 saw 40 conflicts and over 100,000 deaths. The authors attribute the recent rise to nationalism and religious extremism, while predicting that long-term democratization and development will eventually lead to the waning of war.

The document argues that protecting minority rights is a prerequisite for lasting stability and a key element of a security-oriented foreign policy. It examines various power-sharing models—inclusion, portioning, and restrictions—concluding that rights-based restrictions on power are most effective for long-term peace. Case studies on Iraq, Syria, and Myanmar illustrate how the lack of minority protections can exacerbate conflict dynamics and how democratic transitions via majority-rule elections can paradoxically increase the vulnerability of minorities, such as the Rohingya.

The document argues that internally displaced persons in Syria are extraordinarily vulnerable to recruitment by both state and non-state armed actors. It highlights a critical gap in international attention and data regarding IDP mobilization compared to refugee militarization. The authors identify four key factors driving this risk: recruitment processes, the use of humanitarian resources, security vulnerabilities, and socialization through ideological education. Specifically, the Islamic State (IS) is noted for using religious emissaries and controlling school curricula to recruit and indoctrinate displaced populations.

The paper argues that the legal distinction between migrant smuggling (facilitating illegal movement for profit) and human trafficking (exploitation) is increasingly blurred in practice, as smugglers often transition into traffickers. It contends that restrictive border controls do not stop migration but instead make smuggling the 'new normal,' increasing migrant vulnerability and profitability for criminal networks. The authors highlight that most irregular migrants successfully reach their destinations despite high risks, and that state efforts to 'demonize' smugglers often serve as political cover for the failure of the global asylum regime.

The paper argues that ecological, financial, and political systems are under increasing pressure, creating a need to integrate 'hard' security (state-centric) with 'human' security (individual and ecosystem well-being). It identifies commonalities between these fields—such as uncertainty, irreversibilities, and multi-stakeholder complexity—and proposes a three-step methodology: context analysis, participatory scenario building, and options appraisal. Case studies demonstrate how water scarcity in the Nile and Euphrates-Tigris basins, climate-driven geophysical changes in the Arctic, and energy-water dependencies in Central Asia create security risks that require integrated governance and investment strategies.

Friends of the Earth International (FOEI) calls for solidarity with refugees and demands systemic changes to prevent future displacement. The statement identifies the Syrian civil war, resource extraction, and climate change as primary drivers of the refugee crisis and urges governments to end conflicts, phase out fossil fuels, and pursue climate justice to reduce resource scarcity and volatility.

Friends of the Earth International calls for global solidarity with refugees, particularly those fleeing the Syrian conflict, and argues that preventing future displacement requires urgent action on climate justice, the end of resource exploitation, and the reform of unfair trade agreements.

The paper analyzes the Islamic State's (IS) organizational approach to integrating foreign fighters and local recruits in Iraq and Syria. It argues that while foreign fighters provide essential manpower and ideological zeal for IS's territorial ambitions, they introduce risks of adverse selection (incompetence or infiltration). IS mitigates these risks through segregated training, vetting via extreme acts, and deploying foreign fighters in high-risk roles like suicide missions. Conversely, local recruits present a moral hazard of latent opportunism and personal vendettas. The authors conclude that IS effectively manages these diverse groups by aligning them under the overarching goal of establishing a Caliphate, though internal tensions can emerge during military setbacks.

The document examines how South Africa used its tenure on the UN Security Council to formalise institutional links between the UN and the African Union (AU), specifically through the application of Chapter VIII of the UN Charter. It argues that South Africa's efforts helped move the AU from a position of limited capacity to one of greater strategic co-operation, resulting in the creation of joint taskforces and improved coordination for peace support operations in Africa. The author suggests this 'hub and spoke' model of devolving security management to regional organisations offers a pragmatic alternative to the stalled process of formal UN Security Council reform.

The briefing examines the correlation between climate and political violence, noting that while conflicts cluster in dry and tropical zones, there is little evidence that climatic variability directly causes state-based violent conflict. Instead, the authors argue that climate change may increase conflict risk indirectly through three primary causal mechanisms: forced migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks. These effects are not universal but depend on 'scope conditions' such as poverty, poor governance, and political instability. The document concludes that the security challenges posed by climate change are essentially development challenges, and that investing in adaptation and good governance is critical to preventing a growing gap between stable, wealthy societies and those caught in a poverty and instability trap.