The EU-Turkey migrant deal: will it work and at what cost?

The EU-Turkey deal, implemented in March 2016, aimed to reduce irregular arrivals by establishing a 'one in, one out' resettlement formula for Syrian refugees. While the author notes the deal and accompanying border closures in Eastern and South Eastern Europe have successfully deterred arrivals, this has come at a high humanitarian cost. Refugees are now stranded in squalid conditions in Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia, or are forced onto more dangerous smuggling routes, including the Libya-Italy crossing. The author argues that the deal may undermine the international principle of 'non-refoulement' and that the EU's focus on deterrence has created a 'homemade humanitarian crisis'.

• The EU-Turkey deal, which came into force on 18 March 2016, established a 'one in, one out' mechanism where one Syrian refugee is resettled in the EU from Turkish camps for every Syrian refugee returned to Turkey from Greek islands.
• The deal has been effective in its narrow goal of reducing the number of people crossing the Aegean Sea; between 20 March and 20 April 2016, 7,375 people arrived in Greece from Turkey, with only 3,209 arrivals in April alone.
• Border closures and policing in Eastern and South Eastern Europe have been more influential than the EU-Turkey deal in stopping the flow of migrants toward Germany, with no migrants entering Macedonia, Croatia, or Slovenia since 8 March 2016.
• The shift toward covert smuggling routes has increased the danger for refugees, contributing to 1,361 deaths or missing persons at sea in 2016, including 156 in the Aegean.
• The deal potentially violates the international legal principle of 'non-refoulement' by returning refugees to Turkey, a country that has not fully signed the UN Refugee Convention and has previously returned Syrians to Syria.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2016). The EU-Turkey migrant deal: will it work and at what cost? https://saiia.org.za/research/the-eu-turkey-migrant-deal-will-it-work-and-at-what-cost/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The EU-Turkey migrant deal: will it work and at what cost? 2016. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-eu-turkey-migrant-deal-will-it-work-and-at-what-cost/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The EU-Turkey migrant deal: will it work and at what cost? |date=6 May 2016 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-eu-turkey-migrant-deal-will-it-work-and-at-what-cost/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2016euturkey, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The EU-Turkey migrant deal: will it work and at what cost?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2016}, month = may, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-eu-turkey-migrant-deal-will-it-work-and-at-what-cost/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }