CONFLICT TRENDS 01

The report analyzes armed conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) statistics, noting a recent upsurge in both the number of conflicts and battle casualties in 2014. While long-term trends since the 1950s show a decline in warfare deaths and a shift from interstate to internal conflicts, 2014 saw 40 conflicts and over 100,000 deaths. The authors attribute the recent rise to nationalism and religious extremism, while predicting that long-term democratization and development will eventually lead to the waning of war.

• In 2014, there was a significant increase in both the prevalence and severity of armed conflict, with the total number of conflicts reaching 40, the highest since 1999. The number of 'wars' (defined as conflicts with over 1,000 battle deaths) rose from 6 in 2013 to 11 in 2014.
• Battle casualties reached a 25-year high in 2014, exceeding 100,000 deaths. A small number of high-intensity wars drove this figure, as the 11 wars identified in 2014 were responsible for 95% of all battle deaths, while 29 minor conflicts accounted for only 5%.
• Long-term conflict patterns since 1946 show a decline in colonial and interstate conflicts, which once made up half of all armed conflicts. The dominant form of conflict is now internal to a state, though these often involve external state actors.
• The authors identify nationalism and religious extremism as the primary drivers behind the recent increase in conflicts and casualties since 2013. However, they argue that in the long term, democratization and development will continue to cause the waning of war.
• Several ongoing wars are expected to continue due to factors such as the number of actors, relative strength of belligerents, porous borders, and foreign intervention. Specifically, the report expects wars in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Ukraine, and Yemen to persist.

APA

Gates, S., Nygård, H. M., Strand, H., & Urdal, H. (2016). CONFLICT TRENDS 01. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C3%A5rd,%20Strand,%20Urdal%20-%20Trends%20in%20Armed%20Conflict,%20Conflict%20Trends%201-2016.pdf

Chicago

Gates, Scott, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand, and Henrik Urdal. CONFLICT TRENDS 01. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2016. https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C3%A5rd,%20Strand,%20Urdal%20-%20Trends%20in%20Armed%20Conflict,%20Conflict%20Trends%201-2016.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gates |first1=Scott |last2=Nygård |first2=Håvard Mokleiv |last3=Strand |first3=Håvard |last4=Urdal |first4=Henrik |title=CONFLICT TRENDS 01 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2016 |url=https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C3%A5rd,%20Strand,%20Urdal%20-%20Trends%20in%20Armed%20Conflict,%20Conflict%20Trends%201-2016.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gates2016conflict, author = {Gates, Scott and Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv and Strand, Håvard and Urdal, Henrik}, title = {{CONFLICT TRENDS 01}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2016}, url = {https://files.prio.org/publication_files/prio/Gates,%20Nyg%C3%A5rd,%20Strand,%20Urdal%20-%20Trends%20in%20Armed%20Conflict,%20Conflict%20Trends%201-2016.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }