Integrating sustainable development and security: An analytical approach with examples from the Middle East and North Africa, the Arctic and Central Asia

The paper argues that ecological, financial, and political systems are under increasing pressure, creating a need to integrate 'hard' security (state-centric) with 'human' security (individual and ecosystem well-being). It identifies commonalities between these fields—such as uncertainty, irreversibilities, and multi-stakeholder complexity—and proposes a three-step methodology: context analysis, participatory scenario building, and options appraisal. Case studies demonstrate how water scarcity in the Nile and Euphrates-Tigris basins, climate-driven geophysical changes in the Arctic, and energy-water dependencies in Central Asia create security risks that require integrated governance and investment strategies.

• There is a conceptual divide between conventional security studies, which focus on the state and short-to-medium term threats, and sustainable development research, which focuses on individuals, communities, and longer time horizons.
• Environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and climate change act as 'threat multipliers' that can degrade a state's ability to manage human security, potentially leading to economic stagnation, corruption, and state collapse.
• In the Nile region, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has created regional tensions, as downstream states Egypt and Sudan view the project in 'zero-sum, balance-of-power terms' while Ethiopia views it as a driver of economic prosperity.
• In the Euphrates-Tigris region, water and power infrastructure have been used as tactical weapons by non-state actors like ISIS to gain political control and territorial influence.
• The Arctic has undergone a process of 'de-securitization' since 1987, shifting from a Cold War military focus toward cooperation on environmental protection and sustainable development, largely facilitated by the Arctic Council.
• Central Asia faces significant human security risks due to retreating glaciers and climate-induced water scarcity, which may lead to tensions between upstream countries (Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan) and downstream countries over hydropower and irrigation.
• The proposed integrated analytical framework consists of three steps: context analysis (mapping transactional and contextual spaces), participatory scenario building (identifying driving forces and plausible futures), and options appraisal (stress-testing portfolios of investments and institutional changes).

APA

Granit, J., Carlsen, H., Carson, M., Hallding, K., Johnson, O., Rosner, K., Weitz, N., Eriksson, M., Andersson, C., Liljedahl, B., Mobjörk, M., Tulldahl, M., & Waleij, A. (2015). Integrating sustainable development and security: An analytical approach with examples from the Middle East and North Africa, the Arctic and Central Asia. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-FOI-WP-2015-14-Security-sustainable-development.pdf

Chicago

Granit, Jakob, Henrik Carlsen, Marcus Carson, Karl Hallding, Oliver Johnson, Kevin Rosner, Nina Weitz, et al. Integrating sustainable development and security: An analytical approach with examples from the Middle East and North Africa, the Arctic and Central Asia. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2015. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-FOI-WP-2015-14-Security-sustainable-development.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Granit |first1=Jakob |last2=Carlsen |first2=Henrik |last3=Carson |first3=Marcus |last4=Hallding |first4=Karl |last5=Johnson |first5=Oliver |last6=Rosner |first6=Kevin |last7=Weitz |first7=Nina |last8=Eriksson |first8=Mikael |last9=Andersson |first9=Christer |display-authors=etal |title=Integrating sustainable development and security: An analytical approach with examples from the Middle East and North Africa, the Arctic and Central Asia |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=October 2015 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-FOI-WP-2015-14-Security-sustainable-development.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{granit2015integrating, author = {Granit, Jakob and Carlsen, Henrik and Carson, Marcus and Hallding, Karl and Johnson, Oliver and Rosner, Kevin and Weitz, Nina and Eriksson, Mikael and Andersson, Christer and Liljedahl, Birgitta and Mobjörk, Malin and Tulldahl, Michael and Waleij, Annica}, title = {{Integrating sustainable development and security: An analytical approach with examples from the Middle East and North Africa, the Arctic and Central Asia}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-FOI-WP-2015-14-Security-sustainable-development.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }