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The paper critiques the 'liberal peace paradigm' in Africa, suggesting that external peacebuilding often reinforces autocratic governance by focusing on state-building and technical capacity rather than addressing systemic inequality and patronage networks. It argues that current conflicts are driven by the collective denial of individual rights to maintain power configurations, and that peacebuilding must shift toward a rights-based approach to be effective.

The February 2015 Peace & Security Council Report details the AU's efforts to manage continental security crises. Key outcomes include the authorization of a 7,500-strong Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) to combat Boko Haram and a new tiered funding model for the AU budget. However, the report notes significant setbacks, such as the deferral of the Commission of Inquiry report on South Sudan and deep divisions within the International Contact Group on Libya. It also highlights the high risk of election-related violence across 18 African states in 2015 and the ongoing struggle to defeat al-Shabaab in Somalia.

The paper analyzes the evolution of the 'Women, Peace and Security' (WPS) framework, centered on UN Security Council Resolution 1325. While the author notes rapid normative spread and broad political acceptance among member states and regional organizations, she highlights a significant failure to translate these norms into practice. This is evidenced by low female representation in UN peace operations and political missions, insufficient funding, and a lack of accountability at leadership levels. The author argues that while shifting global power dynamics and opposition from states like Russia and China pose risks, the continued pressure from transnational women's networks remains the primary driver for future progress.

The document argues that ethanol has high potential as a cooking fuel in Ethiopia, particularly in urban areas, but requires regulatory reform and stronger government commitment to attract private sector investment and overcome barriers like kerosene subsidies.

The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa generally follows a global pattern of decline when measured relative to population growth, though this was disrupted by the Cold War and has seen a recent uptick since 2010. Africa is uniquely characterized by high levels of 'non-state conflict'—violence between armed groups not involving the government—which the author attributes to weak governance. While terrorism is rising globally, the Middle East is currently experiencing faster growth than Africa. The paper also highlights that internal conflicts now dominate globally over interstate wars, and warns that climate change may increase local conflicts over resources in northern and southern Africa.

The document analyzes the African Group's engagement at the UN Human Rights Council, noting a tension between a desire for regional leadership and a tendency to grant accused governments veto power over resolutions. While some 'human rights-friendly' states consistently support country-specific resolutions, others systematically abstain or oppose them, leading to an uneven response to crises across the continent and globally.

The policy brief argues that peace agreements in the DRC, specifically the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement and the Addis Ababa Framework Agreement (AAFA), reflect shifts in economic power between the eastern Kivus and the southern Katanga province. While early conflicts and the ICGLR were driven by the exploitation of coltan and other minerals in the east by Rwanda and Uganda, the subsequent rise of copper and cobalt investments in Katanga shifted geopolitical influence toward SADC states.

The document examines Ethiopia's foreign policy under the EPRDF-led government, specifically the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS). It highlights Ethiopia's dominant role in regional peace and security, particularly through IGAD and UN/AU peacekeeping missions, while critiquing the mismatch between this strategic prominence and the allocation of diplomatic and financial resources. The author argues that Ethiopia's focus on internal stability and security has led to a 'sluggish' approach to economic diplomacy and regional integration.

The document assesses South Africa's strategic position in global development, arguing that the country can strengthen its peacebuilding and PCRD efforts in Africa by leveraging the IBSA Fund and the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB). It highlights the role of the newly established SADPA in coordinating these efforts while cautioning that South Africa must align its PCRD vision with the African Union and manage domestic perceptions of its outgoing aid.

The document assesses South Africa's role as an emerging global actor in peace and security, specifically its interactions with the UN peacebuilding architecture (PBC, PBSO, and PBF). It highlights South Africa's experience in mediation and peacekeeping in countries like the DRC and Burundi, while noting a lack of systematic staffing of South Africans in the UN system. The paper emphasizes the potential of South-South cooperation, exemplified by the IBSA Fund, and recommends that South Africa leverage the 2015 UN peacebuilding review to promote African perspectives and national ownership of peace processes.

The document analyzes a growing trend among African leaders to prioritize 'traditional values' and 'sovereignty' over universal human rights, often using anti-imperialist rhetoric to shield themselves from accountability. It highlights the role of CSOs in fighting this regressive shift, specifically regarding LGBTI rights, corruption, and the International Criminal Court (ICC), while noting that these organisations face increasing government harassment and restrictive legislation.

This research paper analyzes the potential costs and benefits for Ethiopia of joining the COMESA Free Trade Area (FTA). It finds that Ethiopia's infant manufacturing sector is not yet competitive and that joining the FTA could increase net unemployment. However, it notes that Ethiopia is successfully expanding economic cooperation in energy and transport with neighbors such as Kenya, Sudan, Djibouti, and South Sudan, suggesting that bilateral relations may be more beneficial than formal trade liberalization.

The paper examines Ethiopia's position regarding the COMESA FTA, concluding that while trade liberalisation could increase general welfare through cheaper imports, it poses significant risks to Ethiopia's infant manufacturing sector, potentially leading to job losses and revenue reductions. It highlights that Ethiopia is pursuing regional integration through bilateral infrastructure and energy projects—such as the LAPSSET Corridor and hydropower exports—rather than formal trade liberalisation.

The document examines the role of 'emerging powers'—specifically China, India, Russia, and Brazil—in the two Sudans following the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and South Sudan's 2011 independence. It highlights China as the most dominant actor, particularly in the oil and infrastructure sectors, while India's role is significant but more limited. The analysis argues that the 'South-South cooperation' rhetoric used by these states masks a reality of extractive economic interests that reinforce Sudan's unbalanced political economy. The paper details how the 2011 secession of South Sudan stripped Sudan of 75% of its oil production, leading to economic decline and shifting the strategic focus of Asian investors. It also discusses the impact of conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile on foreign investments and the role of these powers in peacekeeping and arms transfers.

The 2014 South African Defence Review describes the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) as being in a 'critical state of decline' due to obsolescence, force imbalance, and unsustainable budgeting. The review proposes a long-term rejuvenation plan through four planning milestones extending to 2034, requiring significant budget increases. However, the author argues that the review's 'mandate-driven' approach is overly expansive given South Africa's financial constraints and actual tasks. The brief recommends refocusing the SANDF on peace operations, downsizing bloated staffing structures, and reforming the department's accountability and procurement legislation.

The report examines Sudan's fuel subsidy reform process, highlighting the September 2013 price hikes for petrol, diesel, and LPG. It analyzes the economic drivers, such as the loss of oil revenue following South Sudan's secession, and the subsequent social unrest and inflationary pressures. The document concludes with lessons learned regarding pricing systems, mitigation strategies, and the necessity of public support.

The paper argues that while South Africa possesses comparative advantages in access and shared experience, its previous aid efforts—managed via the African Renaissance Fund (ARF)—were often ad hoc and lacked strategic coordination. It recommends that SADPA move beyond high-level diplomatic agreements to engage with national aid architectures and employ political-economy analysis to ensure local ownership of projects.

The policy brief examines the shift in China's engagement with South Sudan from a primary focus on oil to a broader governance and developmental partnership. It highlights the 'so-called 8 billion dollar affair' as a point of mutual discontent caused by mismatched expectations and administrative capacities. The author notes that China is deepening its political ties through party-to-party relations between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), as well as establishing new institutional mechanisms like a 'China desk' to facilitate infrastructure loans. The document concludes that China's increasing involvement in the governance of 'fragile states' like South Sudan is a significant trend for African governments to monitor.

The document analyzes state fragility in Africa as a self-reinforcing syndrome driven by poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified fragile countries may transition toward resilience by 2050, ten are at risk of remaining in a 'fragility trap'. The authors emphasize that while Africa's overall economy is projected to grow significantly, the gap in extreme poverty between fragile and resilient states is expected to widen unless inclusive growth and improved governance are achieved.