PROSPECTS FOR AFRICA’S 26 FRAGILE COUNTRIES

The document analyzes state fragility in Africa as a self-reinforcing syndrome driven by poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified fragile countries may transition toward resilience by 2050, ten are at risk of remaining in a 'fragility trap'. The authors emphasize that while Africa's overall economy is projected to grow significantly, the gap in extreme poverty between fragile and resilient states is expected to widen unless inclusive growth and improved governance are achieved.

• The authors define state fragility as a 'syndrome' or a set of mutually reinforcing conditions characterized by low state capacity and poor performance in providing basic human security and public goods. This syndrome is driven by four primary dimensions: poor or weak governance, high levels of conflict and violence, high levels of inequality and economic exclusion, and poverty.
• Long-term forecasts indicate that 12 fragile countries may move toward resilience by 2030 (Burundi, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Guinea, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Uganda, and Zimbabwe), and another four by 2050 (Eritrea, Liberia, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone). However, ten countries are projected to remain fragile beyond 2050: Comoros, Central African Republic, DRC, Republic of Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Somalia, Sudan/South Sudan, and Togo.
• While the African economy is forecast to grow at an average rate of 5,6 per cent between 2010 and 2050, the number of people living in extreme poverty (less than $2 per day) is expected to increase in 'more fragile' states, rising from 302 million in 2010 to 394 million by 2050, whereas it is expected to decrease in 'more resilient' states.
• Mauritania faces specific long-term environmental risks due to global warming and the depletion of groundwater, which could lead to agricultural yield reductions of approximately 5 per cent by 2030 and 10 per cent by 2050 relative to 2010 levels.
• The authors argue that the trajectory of fragile states depends heavily on the quality of leadership and the commitment of elites to inclusive growth. They suggest that countries potentially benefiting from new oil and gas revenues—specifically Ethiopia, Malawi, Uganda, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and possibly Niger—should implement social cash grants using mobile banking and biometric identification to distribute wealth directly to citizens.
• The report highlights a 'conflict trap' in the Horn of Africa and Great Lakes Region, specifically noting that Sudan/South Sudan, Somalia, and the DRC show the lowest reductions in intrastate violence in optimistic scenarios and the largest increases in pessimistic ones.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Sisk, T. D. (2013). PROSPECTS FOR AFRICA’S 26 FRAGILE COUNTRIES. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF8_16Oct2013V2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Timothy D Sisk. PROSPECTS FOR AFRICA’S 26 FRAGILE COUNTRIES. Institute for Security Studies, 2013. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF8_16Oct2013V2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Sisk |first2=Timothy D |title=PROSPECTS FOR AFRICA’S 26 FRAGILE COUNTRIES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2013 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF8_16Oct2013V2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2013prospects, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Sisk, Timothy D}, title = {{PROSPECTS FOR AFRICA’S 26 FRAGILE COUNTRIES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2013}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF8_16Oct2013V2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }