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The ATT Monitor 2016 report reviews the first year of the Arms Trade Treaty as international law, noting a rise in membership to 82 States Parties as of June 1, 2016. It highlights a significant gap between procedural progress and substantive compliance, particularly regarding arms transfers to conflict zones like Yemen. The report provides a detailed analysis of African states' engagement, the development of a 'Risk Watch' tool to monitor weapon misuse, and an evaluation of the first tranche of Initial and Annual Transfer Reports, noting inconsistent reporting rates and a lack of transparency in several regions.

The East African Community (EAC) took a lead role in managing the 2015 Burundi crisis, but its efforts were largely unsuccessful due to internal divisions among member states and a lack of binding implementation mechanisms. While the EAC initially attempted preventive diplomacy through a 'Delegation of the Wise', subsequent summits and facilitation efforts by leaders like Yoweri Museveni and Benjamin Mkapa failed to prevent violence or secure an inclusive political dialogue. The report highlights how geopolitical tensions between Rwanda and Tanzania further undermined regional cohesion, ultimately allowing the Burundian government to resist international pressure and proceed with contested elections.

The study finds that ethnic civil wars have indeed declined since the mid-1990s, supporting Ted Robert Gurr's projections. The authors demonstrate that this pacifying trend is associated with increased government accommodation, specifically through the granting of group rights, power-sharing, and democratization, which reduce the probability of conflict onset. Additionally, regional autonomy and peacekeeping operations are found to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict termination. Out-of-sample predictions show that a theory-driven model based on accommodative politics far outperforms a simple time-trend model in predicting the actual decline of ethnic conflict from 2000 to 2013.

The East African region has discovered vast oil and gas reserves, but social and economic benefits remain unrealised due to regulatory disputes, infrastructure hurdles, and poor governance. Uganda has opted for a pipeline route through Tanzania over Kenya due to cost and security concerns. Mozambique faces severe financial instability and debt crises that threaten its LNG projects. Across the region, a lack of transparency and limited civil liberties hinder the effective implementation of accountability frameworks like the EITI.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) helped MTN develop the Situational Awareness and Integrated Response (SAIR) system, an open-source informatics tool used to gather intelligence and manage security in volatile markets across Africa and the Middle East.

The report analyzes armed conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) statistics, noting a recent upsurge in both the number of conflicts and battle casualties in 2014. While long-term trends since the 1950s show a decline in warfare deaths and a shift from interstate to internal conflicts, 2014 saw 40 conflicts and over 100,000 deaths. The authors attribute the recent rise to nationalism and religious extremism, while predicting that long-term democratization and development will eventually lead to the waning of war.

The research paper examines how China's 'one road-two belts' strategy, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and increased UN peacekeeping commitments impact Africa. It highlights a shift toward regional development nodes on Africa's east coast and the Horn of Africa, while cautioning that Africa's strategic importance to Beijing is limited compared to China's immediate region and its interests in Asia and Europe.

The paper argues that the legal distinction between migrant smuggling (facilitating illegal movement for profit) and human trafficking (exploitation) is increasingly blurred in practice, as smugglers often transition into traffickers. It contends that restrictive border controls do not stop migration but instead make smuggling the 'new normal,' increasing migrant vulnerability and profitability for criminal networks. The authors highlight that most irregular migrants successfully reach their destinations despite high risks, and that state efforts to 'demonize' smugglers often serve as political cover for the failure of the global asylum regime.

The paper analyzes South Africa's role as a development partner, emphasizing its comparative advantage in Africa due to geographic and political proximity. It contrasts South Africa's 'development partner' identity with traditional 'donor' models, noting that South African aid often includes non-traditional activities like military protection and student scholarships. The author argues that while South Africa lacks a cohesive strategy and transparency in its South-South Cooperation (SSC), the UN can act as a neutral broker to help operationalize SSC principles and integrate southern perspectives into global development architecture.

The document examines the illegal wildlife trade as a reflection of complexities in China-Africa relations, specifically focusing on the demand for rhino horn and ivory in China and the supply challenges in South Africa. It highlights the role of cultural status, traditional medicine, and corruption in driving demand, while noting that supply is fueled by poverty and a lack of sustainable economic alternatives for local communities. The brief compares the conservation and enforcement models of South Africa and Kenya, suggesting that reducing demand through public awareness and linking wildlife protection to national priorities like anti-corruption is essential for long-term success.

The document analyzes conflict data from 1960 to 2015, noting that while global fatalities from armed conflict generally decline relative to population, Africa maintains a disproportionately high conflict burden. It distinguishes between the 'capacity deficit' in sub-Saharan Africa and the 'inclusion deficit' in the MENA region as primary drivers of instability. The author argues that while violent Islamist extremism receives significant media attention, it accounts for a smaller portion of total political fatalities compared to other forms of violence, such as riots and non-state conflict.

The document examines China's deepening security role in Africa, shifting from traditional military concerns to non-traditional threats. It analyzes how China protects its citizens from crime and terrorism, its response to the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and its dual role in the illegal wildlife and timber trades. The authors argue that these transnational challenges are compelling China to increase its engagement with multilateral organizations and move beyond its traditional policy of non-interference.

The report analyzes how the internal conflict in South Sudan has become an arena for regional power struggles. It details the competing interests of Uganda and Sudan, the security concerns of Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the economic and hydropolitical motivations of Kenya and Egypt. The author argues that these external interventions, particularly the military involvement of Uganda and the proxy interests of Sudan, have regionalized the crisis and undermined the mediation efforts of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The report outlines the priorities for the June 2015 AU summit, noting that the official theme of women's empowerment is likely to be overshadowed by urgent crises. Key concerns include the high death toll of African migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Libya, xenophobic violence in South Africa, and the instability in Burundi caused by President Pierre Nkurunziza's third-term bid. It also examines the AU's role in mediating conflicts in South Sudan and Libya, the challenges of establishing an African Standby Force, and the broader struggle for continental economic and political integration.

The document critiques the traditional 'rescue paradigm' of humanitarian intervention, where external forces attempt to protect passive victims. Instead, it proposes a model based on 'self-reliance,' identifying four primary civilian survival strategies: avoidance, concession, collective action, and arming. The author suggests that international efforts, including military and aid operations, should be redesigned to support these local initiatives rather than imposing top-down solutions.

The report identifies three primary categories of insecurity in Kenya: armed civilian groups, state-led violence, and jihadist activities. While al-Shabaab has increased its frequency and deadliness of attacks since the 2011 deployment of troops to Somalia, the report finds that non-al-Shabaab armed groups and state actions have historically caused more fatalities. The analysis highlights systemic drivers of instability, including the legacy of 'imperial presidents', pervasive marginalisation—particularly regarding land distribution at the coast and in the Rift Valley—and the politicisation of security for electoral gain. It also notes the influence of the regional war economy and porous borders with Somalia, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

The report details the first meeting of the NeST South Africa reference group, which aimed to unpack South Africa's approach to South-South co-operation (SSC). Key discussions focused on the need for a uniquely South African definition of development co-operation that moves beyond the narrow OECD-DAC Official Development Assistance (ODA) criteria, as much of South Africa's support—including peacekeeping and infrastructure loans—falls outside those definitions. The document identifies significant challenges, including fragmented coordination across government departments, weak monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems, and the tension between promoting human rights and adhering to Southern principles of non-interference. It emphasizes that South Africa views itself as a 'development partner' rather than a 'donor', guided by the philosophy of 'ubuntu'.

The assessment finds that while Uganda has established a comprehensive legal and policy framework for mining, its actual implementation readiness is medium to low due to severe capacity constraints in monitoring, inspection, and enforcement. Strengths include the public availability of geological data and a progressive variable tax rate for mining companies. However, critical gaps exist in mine closure planning, financial assurance for restoration, and the formalization of the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector, which accounts for 90% of national production but remains overwhelmingly informal. The report recommends prioritizing socioeconomic benefit optimization, improving post-mining transition frameworks, and increasing transparency in the distribution of mining revenues.

The report argues that climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in fragile states, exacerbating existing conflict drivers like poverty and weak governance. It proposes a framework for "climate-resilient peacebuilding" based on six principles, including integrated context analysis and a forward-looking approach to planning. The document identifies specific entry points for integration across five peacebuilding dimensions: basic safety and security, political processes, basic services, government functions, and economic revitalization. It also reviews existing international guidance, noting that while some tools integrate climate risks, many others lack this perspective, suggesting that practitioners should integrate climate resilience into existing resources rather than creating new toolkits.

The report analyzes the relapse into violence in South Sudan following its 2011 independence, identifying the root causes as political power struggles and structural governance failures rather than purely ethnic conflict. It argues that the leadership of both President Salva Kiir and Riek Machar has failed to provide a strategic vision, resulting in a state characterized by corruption, patronage, and a lack of institutional capacity. The author evaluates three future scenarios: a transitional government of national unity, a neutral interim government, and the maintenance of the status quo. The report concludes that a neutral interim government is the most viable path to implement the systemic reforms necessary to move beyond short-term political fixes and address the country's legacy of injustice.