Central Africa Report

This report analyzes the East African Community's (EAC) attempts to resolve the political crisis in Burundi triggered by President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third term in 2016. It details the internal divisions among EAC member states, the failure of various diplomatic facilitation efforts, and the resulting political deadlock.

• The political crisis in Burundi was sparked by President Pierre Nkurunziza's decision to stand for a third term on 25 April 2016, which violated the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement and led to violent repression by security forces and the CNDD-FDD youth militia, the Imbonerakure.
• The East African Community (EAC) took a leadership role in managing the Burundi crisis for the first time, but its effectiveness was undermined by internal splits. Member states divided into blocs, with Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda forming one group, while Burundi aligned more closely with Tanzania, partly due to Burundi's reliance on Dar es Salaam as its major port.
• Diplomatic tensions between Rwanda and Tanzania further weakened the EAC's cohesion. Rwanda suspected Tanzania of collusion with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), while Tanzania later suspected Rwanda of backing a coup attempt in Burundi in May 2015.
• The EAC's intervention was characterized by a lack of binding mechanisms and inconsistent positions on the legality of the third term. While some members initially opposed the third term, the EAC Summit on 31 May 2015 sidestepped the issue, citing the primacy of the Burundi Constitutional Court's ruling and the sovereign nature of the state.
• Multiple facilitation attempts by the EAC failed to prevent elections held amidst violence. Efforts by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and later Benjamin Mkapa were hampered by the Burundian government's refusal to engage in inclusive dialogue or negotiate with certain opposition delegates.
• The report concludes that the Burundi crisis has returned to a low-intensity conflict with the potential to escalate into civil war. It suggests that Tanzania, as the current EAC presidency holder and key economic partner to Burundi, is the only member state with sufficient influence to potentially resolve the impasse.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2016). Central Africa Report. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car8-v2.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. Central Africa Report. 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car8-v2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Central Africa Report |date=August 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car8-v2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2016central, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Central Africa Report}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/car8-v2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }