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The briefing examines the strained bilateral relationship between Benin and Niger following Niger's 2023 coup and the subsequent withdrawal of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) from ECOWAS. It highlights how the election of Romuald Wadagni in Benin on 12 April 2026 offers a window for de-escalation, as both nations face economic losses and rising insecurity. The author suggests that the African Union, specifically through the AU Mission for Mali and the Sahel, is best positioned to facilitate a formal reset based on mutual territorial assurances to overcome mistrust and security gaps in the W-Arly-Pendjari Complex.

The document provides a detailed update on the climate trajectories of China and the U.S., highlighting China's rapid expansion of non-fossil energy capacity and the U.S.'s implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). It details specific national policies, such as China's '1+N' system and the U.S.'s EPA rules on power plants and vehicles, while analyzing the diplomatic dynamics following the Sunnylands Statement and the transition of key climate envoys.

The document assesses Norway's cautious and ambiguous approach to regulating lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) and military AI. It highlights the tension between Norway's NATO commitments and the need for arms control diplomacy in the face of technological advancements by Russia and China. The brief identifies significant legal and ethical challenges, such as the lack of accountability for AI-driven actions and the risks associated with dual-use technologies, while noting that definitional ambiguities and the consensus-based structure of the UN CCW have hindered international regulatory progress.

The BRICS nations failed to mount a unified response to the COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by inconsistent vaccine adoption and delayed consensus on intellectual property waivers. Despite the high disease burden in India and Brazil, and the production capacity of India and South Africa, the bloc's 'lukewarm cooperation' has undermined its goal of reforming global governance.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to establish a 'Compact with Africa' during her 2017 G20 presidency to foster genuine partnerships based on agreed goals and performance standards. The initiative aims to create stable investment environments for infrastructure development while addressing mutual responsibilities in migration, corruption, and counter-terrorism. Key priorities for the compact's success include funding the Green Climate Fund to help African nations adapt to global warming, curbing illicit financial flows—estimated by the AU/UN to exceed $50 billion annually—and utilizing the African Peer Review Mechanism for governance monitoring. The document notes that US reluctance toward multilateralism under Donald Trump complicates these efforts, particularly regarding famine relief and climate finance.

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a leading 'norm entrepreneur' in Africa during the Mandela and Mbeki eras to a state currently facing a 'crisis of expectations' under President Jacob Zuma. While South Africa historically exported its model of democratic transition through mediation in Burundi and the DRC and the reform of continental institutions like the AU and SADC, it is now criticized for failing to oppose democratic reversals and human rights abuses. The brief highlights contradictions in South Africa's current approach, including its controversial withdrawal from the International Criminal Court and its reluctance to vote on country-specific human rights issues in the UN. It recommends that South Africa leverage its soft power and financial influence within the AU and SADC to regain its status as a champion of peace and governance.

The East African Community (EAC) took a lead role in managing the 2015 Burundi crisis, but its efforts were largely unsuccessful due to internal divisions among member states and a lack of binding implementation mechanisms. While the EAC initially attempted preventive diplomacy through a 'Delegation of the Wise', subsequent summits and facilitation efforts by leaders like Yoweri Museveni and Benjamin Mkapa failed to prevent violence or secure an inclusive political dialogue. The report highlights how geopolitical tensions between Rwanda and Tanzania further undermined regional cohesion, ultimately allowing the Burundian government to resist international pressure and proceed with contested elections.

The document examines Ethiopia's foreign policy under the EPRDF-led government, specifically the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS). It highlights Ethiopia's dominant role in regional peace and security, particularly through IGAD and UN/AU peacekeeping missions, while critiquing the mismatch between this strategic prominence and the allocation of diplomatic and financial resources. The author argues that Ethiopia's focus on internal stability and security has led to a 'sluggish' approach to economic diplomacy and regional integration.

The report examines the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) process, finding that the Obama administration ignored requests from Japan's elected leadership for a 'sole purpose' nuclear declaration. Instead, the U.S. accommodated a small group of Japanese bureaucrats by maintaining 'tailored' nuclear options, such as dual-capable aircraft, which the author argues contradicts President Obama's Prague commitments and fails to address the actual security concerns of the Japanese public.

The document outlines the Chinese view of South Africa as a critical 'bridge' between the BRICS nations and the African continent. It highlights the 'comprehensive strategic partnership' between China and South Africa, noting that while economic complementarity is strong, challenges exist regarding South Africa's investment environment and trade imbalances. Chinese analysts argue that South Africa's domestic political stability and regional leadership provide it with 'irreplaceable unique advantages' that enhance the BRICS' collective voice in reforming global economic governance, particularly within the IMF and G-20.

Malawi and Tanzania are unable to agree on a mediation process for their dispute over Lake Malawi, with Tanzania proposing a former SADC head of state and Malawi preferring the International Court of Justice. The dispute is driven by potential oil and gas deposits in the lake. The situation highlights SADC's lack of a standing regional mediation architecture and the 2010 suspension of its regional tribunal, suggesting a need for formal mechanisms to handle trans-boundary resource conflicts.

The policy brief examines the intersection of South Africa's domestic immigration challenges and its 'quiet diplomacy' toward Zimbabwe. It highlights a systemic failure in South Africa's asylum and immigration regimes, characterized by corruption and inefficiency, which has contributed to xenophobic violence and damaged South Africa's international reputation. The author argues that by treating Zimbabwean migrants primarily as economic actors rather than political refugees, South Africa has inadvertently supported the ZANU-PF regime. The brief recommends a thorough overhaul of the immigration system, restoration of the asylum system's credibility through UNHCR involvement, and the inclusion of the Zimbabwean diaspora in constitutional reform and election processes.

The document argues that the United States has lost its leverage in international climate negotiations due to its failure to enact domestic climate legislation and its opposition to the Kyoto Protocol. It highlights a growing divide between the U.S. and developing nations, particularly China, noting that China is investing more aggressively in clean energy despite U.S. pressure for mitigation commitments. The briefing also discusses a trade petition by the United Steelworkers against China's clean energy subsidies, suggesting this could trigger trade conflicts that undermine UNFCCC goals. It concludes by suggesting the U.S. should utilize the Bali Action Plan's carve-out to allow other developed nations to proceed with the Kyoto Protocol's second commitment period.

The document analyzes the transition of EU-South Africa relations from a development-focused framework to a Strategic Partnership. It highlights the EU's goal of engaging emerging powers and South Africa's role as a regional leader. While the partnership expands cooperation into areas like climate change, energy, and security, the author notes that tensions remain regarding trade agreements and agricultural policies.

The document analyzes South Africa's diplomatic approach toward Swaziland and Zimbabwe, arguing that Pretoria employs 'persuasive diplomacy' and limited engagement due to a complex balance of regional economic stability, national interests, and the principle of national sovereignty. While Zimbabwe's economic collapse poses a significant threat to the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Swaziland's smaller economic footprint results in less regional urgency despite similar human rights abuses. The author notes that South Africa's reluctance to take forceful action against Robert Mugabe is driven by fears of regional isolation, the potential for increased refugee flows, and Mugabe's status as an anti-colonial icon.

The document assesses the role of the United States in the global effort to combat climate change following the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. It argues that the U.S. has failed to lead, contributing to 27% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions while resisting binding domestic action. The authors highlight critical loopholes in the Kyoto Protocol, such as the use of surplus emissions allowances from former socialist economies and ambiguous forest activity definitions. To ensure the treaty's success, the brief recommends that the U.S. implement mandatory domestic programs, defer demands for immediate binding commitments from developing countries, and support the Global Environment Facility.

The document examines the dual tracks of e-commerce negotiations at the WTO: the multilateral Work Programme and the plurilateral Joint Statement Initiative (JSI). It highlights a shift in the JSI where contentious issues like data flows and source code were archived following a US policy shift in October 2023. A central point of tension remains the moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, with developing nations citing lost public revenue and the need for industrial policy space, while developed nations argue the moratorium lowers trade costs and benefits consumers. The document notes that the outcome of the moratorium debate and the potential integration of JSI treaties into WTO law are key expectations for MC13.

The Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP-4) in Buenos Aires resulted in the 'Buenos Aires Plan of Action,' a work program with deadlines to resolve six key issues necessary for the Kyoto Protocol's implementation. While the talks were characterized by deadlock and high-level closed-door negotiations, significant developments included a breakthrough in Global Environment Facility (GEF) funding for developing countries and Argentina's decision to voluntarily commit to greenhouse gas emission reductions. However, deep divisions remained regarding the capping of Kyoto mechanisms and the formalization of technology transfer.