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The paper investigates the dynamics between South Africa, as a regional hegemon, and several 'secondary powers' in sub-Saharan Africa. It concludes that while these states possess significant material power, their ability to contest South African leadership is limited by poor governance and a lack of overlapping strategic interests. Most contestation is found to be unintended, with the exception of Angola, which employs a strategy of soft balancing through economic protectionism and strategic investments.

The document argues that while climate-smart agriculture (CSA) can enhance food security and climate resilience in sub-Saharan Africa, its adoption is hindered by physical input shortages and institutional failures. It recommends improving tenure security, expanding financial instruments like crop insurance, and strengthening local governance and scientific research to scale these practices.

The report finds that the UK-to-Africa remittance market is heavily cash-based, with cash-to-cash transfers accounting for approximately 90% of flows. While digital MTOs and payment hubs offer more competitive pricing, their impact is limited by a 'stickiness of cash' among UK migrants and a lack of digital payment infrastructure and formal identification in African receive markets. The authors argue that digitising the entire value chain is the only way to significantly drive down costs. Key recommendations for donors include researching consumer behavior in the UK, promoting non-cash transfers, piloting access for UK providers to the SADC Integrated Regional Settlement System (SIRESS), and supporting the expansion of remittance hubs in FCAS.

The report argues that the UN Security Council has historically prioritised reactive conflict management and peacekeeping over prevention. It identifies significant hurdles to operationalising prevention, including a lack of unified definitions, budgetary discrepancies, and organisational fragmentation. The authors recommend establishing concrete implementation strategies, improving coordination between UN organs and the African Union, and shifting toward structural prevention that addresses the root causes of conflict.

The paper analyzes the Foreign Affairs and National Security Policy and Strategy (FANSPS) of Ethiopia, which prioritizes domestic security and development over external concerns. While this approach has supported economic growth and regional mediation roles, the author argues it has led to strategic vulnerabilities, including a failure to secure sea access and an underestimation of threats from Eritrea and Egypt. The document recommends a more proactive, opportunity-based diplomatic approach to enhance regional trade and security.

The document assesses the threat of violent extremism in South Africa, concluding that while the overall risk of a major attack is low, the country remains vulnerable to 'lone wolf' incidents and the use of its infrastructure as a base for international extremists. It details the history of far-right groups like the AWB and Boeremag, the militant activities of Pagad in the 1990s, and recent concerns regarding South Africans joining ISIS. The brief highlights systemic vulnerabilities such as government corruption and porous borders, while recommending a focus on youth engagement, social cohesion, and improved intelligence capabilities.

The document examines the governance of marine and coastal resources in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), emphasizing the need for integrated coastal management (ICM) and coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) to balance economic growth with biodiversity conservation. It highlights the role of marine protected areas (MPAs) and locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) in securing ecosystem services and supporting livelihoods. The author argues that for the 'Blue Economy' to be sustainable, conservation must be integrated into development agendas through economic valuations of natural capital and inclusive, community-based management to avoid 'ocean grabbing' and ensure equitable benefit-sharing.

The document assesses the financial links between natural resource extraction and violent extremism in Africa, finding that while the LRA relies heavily on ivory and the Janjaweed on gold, al-Shabaab primarily funds itself through charcoal taxation, and Boko Haram derives little to no revenue from resource extraction.

The analysis concludes that the 2016 drought in Somalia and Somaliland was primarily driven by natural variability and La Niña rather than climate change. While the autumn rains failed in both regions—representing a once-a-century event in Somaliland—climate change had a small effect on these dry extremes. La Niña increased the probability of a dry season and accounted for approximately one third of the precipitation deficit, though it was not well-predicted by seasonal forecast models.

The report analyzes how international anti-money laundering (AML) and countering the financing of terrorism (CFT) standards, primarily those from the FATF, affect financial inclusion. It highlights the trend of 'de-risking'—where banks wholesale cut off high-risk markets like Somalia—as an unintended consequence of these regulations. The author argues for a shift toward a Risk-Based Approach (RBA) and the adoption of biometric digital identities to ensure the 'unbanked' do not become 'unbankable'.

Turkey has become a critical partner for the Somali Federal Government (SFG), providing significant humanitarian aid, military training, and private investment. While Turkish interventions in the Mogadishu airport and seaport have substantially increased government revenues, the briefing argues that this approach risks undermining peace by favoring specific clans and bolstering an unaccountable central government. The document highlights a tension between Turkey's goal of strengthening the state and the need for an inclusive political settlement that avoids zero-sum clan dynamics.

The analysis concludes that climate change had a small effect on the 2016 autumn drought in Somalia and Somaliland, with no significant trend in observed rainfall. However, a strong La Niña event significantly increased drought risks and explained approximately one third of the precipitation deficit. The severe food insecurity resulting from the drought was primarily driven by high human vulnerability caused by decades of conflict and political upheaval rather than meteorological factors alone.

The 2016 drought in Kenya was primarily driven by sea-surface temperature patterns, specifically La Niña, rather than human-induced climate change. While climate change did not significantly increase the likelihood of the rainfall deficit, it did lead to hotter temperatures that exacerbated the drought's impact. The event was less severe than the 2010-11 drought but still triggered a national emergency, affecting millions of people in arid and semi-arid lands.

The report analyzes Ethiopia's trajectory toward lower-middle-income status, highlighting significant progress in GDP growth and health indicators alongside persistent challenges in food security, education quality, and political inclusion. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated investments in agriculture, human capital, and governance are essential to harness a looming demographic dividend and avoid instability driven by a large youth bulge.

The research examines the role of emerging donors, specifically South Africa and Turkey, in peacebuilding within fragile states. It finds that while these providers often deliver more resources and exhibit greater flexibility and respect for national sovereignty than traditional donors, they lack a coherent theory of change and struggle with internal coordination and transparency. The study highlights a tension between the rhetoric of solidarity and the reality of strategic economic interests, such as trade and energy potential.

The document discusses the transition of the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership to Moussa Faki Mahamat. It emphasizes that the AU cannot return to 'business as usual' due to a volatile global political landscape and the urgent need for financial autonomy. A key focus is the implementation of a 0.2% levy on African imports to reduce reliance on international donors, aiming to provide $1.2 billion in overall revenue in 2017 and ensure peace operations are 25% self-funded. The text also highlights the necessity of institutional reforms proposed by President Paul Kagame and the need for the AU to address root causes of conflict and migration in countries such as Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.

The report examines the distinct challenges of financial market development in fragility-affected states in Africa (FASA), where financial exclusion is significantly higher than in non-fragile sub-Saharan African countries. It advocates for a 'market systems' or 'M4P' approach based on facilitation and adaptive management rather than direct implementation. Key priorities identified include the development of functional identification solutions, risk-based tiered KYC regulations, and the scaling of promising practices such as Islamic finance, refugee/IDP finance, and impact investing. The document emphasizes that systemic change in these volatile contexts requires long-term commitment, a high tolerance for risk, and a deep understanding of local political economy and conflict dynamics.

The African Union (AU) has established several legal frameworks to combat terrorism, including the 1999 Algiers Convention and the 2004 Protocol, but implementation is stalled by low ratification rates among member states. Key countries facing terrorism, such as Nigeria and Somalia, have not ratified the 2004 Protocol. The AU's efforts are further undermined by a lack of monitoring systems, severe funding shortages—with member states contributing only 40% of the 2016 budget—and a tendency for international powers like the US and France to bypass the AU in favor of direct bilateral operations with individual states.

The paper analyzes the relationship between China and Ethiopia, highlighting how Ethiopia's 'developmental state' model and strategic location in the Horn of Africa make it a key partner for China. It details Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications, while noting that China's political influence is constrained by Ethiopia's strong national pride and centralized power structures. The document also explores China's increasing role in regional stability through the African Union and IGAD.

The 2016–2017 drought in Kenya, declared a national emergency in February 2017, was primarily driven by sea surface temperature patterns, specifically La Niña. While attribution analysis found no strong climate change signal in rainfall trends, it concluded that temperatures during the drought were hotter than they would have been without human-induced climate change. The drought severely impacted 23 counties, leaving up to 4 million people in need of food aid by April 2017, though it was less extreme than the 2010–2011 event.