The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis

The analysis concludes that the 2016 drought in Somalia and Somaliland was primarily driven by natural variability and La Niña rather than climate change. While the autumn rains failed in both regions—representing a once-a-century event in Somaliland—climate change had a small effect on these dry extremes. La Niña increased the probability of a dry season and accounted for approximately one third of the precipitation deficit, though it was not well-predicted by seasonal forecast models.

• The impact of climate change on the probability of dry extremes during the autumn (Deyr) rains in Somalia and Somaliland is considered small when compared to natural variability, and the analysis could not demonstrate that climate change influenced the drought's probability.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2017). The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis. https://cdkn.org/resource/role-of-climate-change-la-nina-ongoing-somalia-drought-rapid-analysis

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis. 2017. https://cdkn.org/resource/role-of-climate-change-la-nina-ongoing-somalia-drought-rapid-analysis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis |date=3 April 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/resource/role-of-climate-change-la-nina-ongoing-somalia-drought-rapid-analysis |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2017role, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = apr, url = {https://cdkn.org/resource/role-of-climate-change-la-nina-ongoing-somalia-drought-rapid-analysis}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }