The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis

This rapid analysis by World Weather Attribution examines the influence of climate change and La Niña on the drought in Somalia, specifically focusing on meteorological drought (lack of rain) during the 2016 rainy seasons.

• The analysis concludes that climate change had a small effect on dry extremes during the autumn (Deyr) rains in Somalia and Somaliland compared to natural variability, and it could not be shown that climate change influenced the probability of the drought.
• A strong La Niña event increased the probability of a dry season and accounted for approximately one third of the precipitation deficit, although current seasonal forecast models did not forecast this well.
• In 2016, spring rains were approximately 20 percent below normal in Somalia but slightly above normal in Somaliland. Autumn rains failed in both regions, with an average of about half the normal rainfall in the second half of the year; this was a once-a-century event in Somaliland and a 1-in-10 to 30 year event in the rest of Somalia.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2017). The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis. https://cdkn.org/resource/role-of-climate-change-la-nina-ongoing-somalia-drought-rapid-analysis

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis. 2017. https://cdkn.org/resource/role-of-climate-change-la-nina-ongoing-somalia-drought-rapid-analysis.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis |date=3 April 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/resource/role-of-climate-change-la-nina-ongoing-somalia-drought-rapid-analysis |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2017role, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{The role of climate change and La Niña in the ongoing Somalia drought: A rapid analysis}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = apr, url = {https://cdkn.org/resource/role-of-climate-change-la-nina-ongoing-somalia-drought-rapid-analysis}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }