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The report projects that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.976 billion by 2043, with carbon emissions nearly tripling to 650 million tons under the Current Path. While the Current Path sees GDP per capita reach US$5,996, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario—integrating improvements in governance, education, health, and infrastructure—could increase GDP per capita to US$9,798 and drastically reduce extreme poverty to 7.3%. Key sectoral findings include the 'Leapfrogging' scenario's potential to raise electricity access to 81.7% and the 'Free Trade' scenario's role as the most carbon-intensive path, contributing 711 million tons of carbon by 2043.

The document provides administrative and bibliographic information for the Burkina Faso Development Futures research, detailing the open-access nature of the work and the objectives of the African Futures & Innovation (AFI) program at the Institute for Security Studies.

The report forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.962 billion by 2043, with a significant shift toward urbanization. While regional GDP is projected to increase substantially, reaching between US$6.2 trillion and US$6.7 trillion, GDP per capita growth is tempered by rapid population increases. The region is expected to face increasing food insecurity as agricultural demand outstrips production. Energy production is projected to shift toward renewables, yet total carbon emissions are forecast to rise by over 146% by 2043, with Nigeria expected to overtake South Africa as the region's largest emitter.

The document analyzes remittance flows in Africa, noting that in 2023, gross inflows reached approximately US$90 billion. While remittances provide critical household support and macroeconomic stability, the authors warn of a 'remittance trap' and 'Dutch disease' that can hinder long-term economic growth. The paper highlights the use of diaspora bonds in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria to fund infrastructure, and forecasts that net inflows to Africa will likely increase to US$94 billion by 2043, although their share of GDP is expected to decline.

The document introduces ECOWAS as a regional economic community established in 1975 to promote economic integration and stability in West Africa. While it has achieved some success in facilitating free movement for citizens, the bloc currently faces significant threats from terrorism, climate change in the Sahel, and infrastructure deficits. The document highlights a critical geopolitical crisis where Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have announced their intention to exit the bloc by January 2025, citing sanctions and a failure to combat insecurity.

The document forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase sub-Saharan Africa's GDP per capita to US$9,798 by 2043, compared to US$5,980 in the Current Path. It predicts a substantial reduction in extreme poverty to 7.3% and a nearly doubled total economy of US$12,295.2 billion. However, this growth is associated with higher carbon emissions, reaching 892 million tons by 2043.

The document examines illicit financial flows (IFFs) in Africa, estimating annual losses between US$50 billion and US$89 billion. It identifies commercial activities, such as Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) and trade misinvoicing, as the primary drivers (65%), while criminal activity and corruption account for 35%. These outflows reduce spending on health and education and increase reliance on predatory borrowing. The paper discusses countermeasures including the African Tax Administration Forum (ATAF), the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS, and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), while highlighting challenges such as the US's role as a "secrecy jurisdiction" and limited administrative capacity in African nations.

The document describes Africa's physical geography, including its diverse climates and major river systems, and its political structure consisting of 54 sovereign states and the African Union. It highlights the continent's significant economic challenges, noting that it contains the highest proportion of the world's low-income countries, while also detailing its immense linguistic, ethnic, and religious diversity.

The paper examines the UK's Enhanced Trade Partnerships (ETPs), which are non-binding memoranda of understanding that sit between informal commercial meetings (JETCOs) and binding Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). While ETPs frequently reference sustainability and can facilitate 'green' trade and regulatory diplomacy, the author argues they primarily serve offensive trade interests and lack the civil society oversight necessary to prevent 'greenwashing'.

The document examines 'technological leapfrogging' in Africa, focusing on how decentralised renewable energy, mobile finance, and artificial intelligence can overcome infrastructure deficits. It presents a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario projecting significant GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while providing policy recommendations to address structural bottlenecks in skills, financing, and regulation.

As of 2022, 41.5% of Africa's population lacked electricity, with sub-Saharan Africa lagging significantly at 51.5% access. The document argues that traditional grid expansion is too slow and expensive for rural areas, proposing a 'leapfrog' strategy centered on solar-based off-grid and mini-grid solutions. World Bank estimates suggest that providing electricity to 380 million people by 2030 would require over 160,000 mini-grids costing approximately US$ 91 billion. Despite possessing 60% of the world's best solar resources, Africa faces severe financing shortfalls, with clean energy finance growing by only 2.5% in sub-Saharan Africa between 2021 and 2022, compared to over 100% in Latin America. Barriers to deployment include high public debt, regulatory bottlenecks, and shifting geopolitical priorities, such as the end of the US Power Africa initiative.

Africa has experienced significant technological leapfrogging by bypassing fixed-line telecommunications in favor of mobile networks. While mobile subscriptions surged from 1.9 to over 100 per 100 people between 2000 and 2023, fixed broadband remains limited. The report highlights the role of satellite internet, such as Starlink, in reaching remote areas and notes that mobile broadband coverage in Nigeria is linked to increased household consumption and poverty reduction. By 2050, mobile phone and mobile broadband subscriptions are projected to reach 150 and 149 per 100 people, respectively, though gaps in affordability and digital skills persist.

The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario is projected to accelerate Africa's average annual economic growth to 6% between 2027 and 2050, resulting in a total GDP nearly US$1 trillion higher than the baseline by 2050. This trajectory is expected to increase average GDP per capita by approximately US$510 and reduce the number of people in extreme poverty by 63 million, bringing the poverty rate down to 11.5% by 2050.

The paper examines the role of technological leapfrogging in transitioning Africa's large informal economy into the formal sector. It highlights that in 2024, the informal sector accounted for 58% of the labour force and 27% of GDP, with projections suggesting a decline to 50% of the labour force and 24% of GDP by 2050. The author identifies digital ID systems as the critical first step for formalisation, noting that roughly half of the world's one billion people without official identification live in Africa. The document asserts that digitisation—including biometric IDs, mobile payment solutions, and PAYG models—can expand the tax base and improve access to credit and social protections without imposing heavy compliance costs on small-scale operators.

Mighty Earth CEO Glenn Hurowitz warns that JBS, the world's largest meat company, is expanding its industrial model into Africa, securing 4,600 square miles of land in Nigeria for six meat-processing plants. The note highlights JBS's history of deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado, labor abuses, and pollution, while noting a legal challenge by Greenpeace Netherlands to force disclosure of the company's climate and human rights policies. Mighty Earth is targeting JBS's global retail customers, such as Ahold Delhaize and Stop & Shop, to pressure the company into changing its practices.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fertiliser supply shock that threatens Nigerian food security by increasing agricultural production costs and food prices. Despite record domestic urea production in 2024, Nigeria remains vulnerable due to the export of most urea and a continued reliance on imported blending materials from Russia, Morocco, and China. These external shocks compound existing internal strains, including regional insecurity and infrastructure gaps, disproportionately affecting smallholder farmers who cannot absorb rising costs. The document argues for a pivot toward emergency procurement, improved trade finance, and expanded domestic blending capacity to build long-term resilience.

The statement contends that Africa's reliance on fossil fuels leaves its communities vulnerable to external shocks, such as the economic ripple effects of the US-Iran war. It advocates for the implementation of existing frameworks like the African Single Electricity System and the African Union Green Minerals Strategy to achieve energy sovereignty and justice, arguing that transitioning to net-zero is more cost-effective than enduring the costs of global energy instability.

The report warns that Africa's labour force growth is outstripping job supply, leaving many dependent on a low-productivity informal sector. It argues that while agriculture and services will provide most jobs, manufacturing offers the highest long-term impact. To avoid social instability and the risk of a missed demographic dividend, the authors advocate for digitisation to formalise the informal economy, massive upskilling in AI and STEM, and a shift in mindset from seeking jobs to creating them through entrepreneurship.

The report asserts that capital markets are essential for African economies to finance climate adaptation, infrastructure, and demographic shifts amidst declining foreign aid and FDI. It argues that while public equity markets have limited utility for smaller or frontier markets due to high costs and information asymmetries, corporate bond markets and hybrid structures—combining public disclosure with private flexibility—offer more practical pathways. The author emphasizes that macroeconomic stability and pension reforms are foundational to increasing the domestic savings base. The document recommends using guarantees, pooled investment vehicles, and project preparation platforms to increase institutional investor confidence and develop bankable projects in infrastructure, housing, and MSMEs.

The report examines the mismatch between India's diplomatic rhetoric and its actual economic and institutional footprint in Africa. While India possesses comparative advantages rooted in historical ties, shared post-colonial values, and expertise in digital public infrastructure and pharmaceuticals, it lags behind rivals like China in trade, investment, and credit provision. The author identifies fiscal constraints, bureaucratic inefficiency, and reputational risks as primary barriers and recommends a coordinated 'multi-actor Africa policy' focused on high-impact sectors and strategic partnerships with anchor states including South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt.