Search Climate Insights Directory

The document analyzes gender gaps in education across Africa, noting that while parity has improved, sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind North Africa and other global regions. It highlights a widening gap as students progress to higher education levels, particularly in Central Africa, and forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the 2019 global mean length of adult female education (8.4 years) until the second half of the 21st century without aggressive intervention.

The document analyzes the strategic interests of the EU and Indonesia in Africa's critical raw materials sector, arguing that their differing strengths—the EU's financial and regulatory capacity and Indonesia's downstream industrialisation experience—could be combined through triangular cooperation to support African development and reduce mutual dependence on China.

The report examines the 'electrotech fast-track' for 74 Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) nations, arguing that rapid cost declines in solar, batteries, and electric end-use technologies allow these countries to bypass the 'fossil detour'. It highlights that 46% of CVF nations, by electricity demand, have already surpassed the US in solar penetration. The document details how solar is now less capital-intensive than fossil fuels and how decentralized solar-battery systems are becoming cheaper than grid extension for remote areas. It further argues that transitioning to electrotech reduces the $155 billion annual fossil fuel import drain and leverages CVF nations' strategic assets in critical minerals and manufacturing to gain geopolitical influence.

The report analyzes the integration of voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) into trade policies to enhance market access for developing countries. It identifies two primary forms of integration: direct mandatory compliance and voluntary influence on national policies. Through case studies in Mozambique (cotton), Namibia (horticulture), Suriname (fisheries), and Vietnam (forestry), the report highlights that while VSSs can improve product quality and reputation, implementation is often hindered by high certification costs, limited institutional capacity, and market volatility.

Analysis of the Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker (GOGET) reveals that oil and gas fields now take significantly longer to come online than in the 1960–1980 period, with 2025 startups averaging 15.1 years. This increase is driven by the depletion of easily accessible fields, forcing companies to target technically challenging 'hard-to-recover' reserves, such as ultra-high pressure '20K technology' fields in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and remote Arctic projects in Russia. Additional delays stem from reservoir compositions (e.g., sour gas), ecological risks in protected areas, and more stringent environmental regulations, such as the UK's 2025 guidance on scope three emissions. The report argues that these long lead times increase the risk of creating stranded assets and locking in production that contradicts global climate targets to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The document outlines a projected economic transition for Africa by 2043, moving from raw commodity exports to a more balanced profile of manufactured goods and services. It emphasizes the role of urbanisation as a catalyst for growth, provided it is supported by resilient infrastructure. The 'Combined scenario' predicts a strategic rebalancing where manufacturing gains GDP share and agriculture becomes more commercialised and productive, despite a declining share of total GDP. Key enablers include ICT, renewable energy investment, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

The document examines the diverse nature of Africa's manufacturing sector, noting that most countries remain outliers with low manufacturing shares of GDP. It highlights a trend of 'premature deindustrialization' in low-income countries and the significant role of Chinese private enterprises in meeting domestic demand. While most of the continent relies on raw material exports, a few countries like Eswatini and South Africa show higher industrial competitiveness.

The Manufacturing scenario projects a structural economic transformation for Africa by 2043, increasing the manufacturing sector's GDP share to 18.1% and adding US$282.8 billion to the continent's total GDP. This shift is expected to generate 34.6 million additional jobs, primarily unskilled roles in agro-processing and services, while increasing government revenue by US$81.6 billion. The scenario forecasts a reduction in extreme poverty, lifting 19.11 million more people out of poverty by 2043 than the Current Path, and predicts a long-term decrease in income inequality through the expansion of the middle class.

The report highlights the systemic risks of fossil fuel dependency, noting that three-quarters of the global population live in importing countries that spent $1.7 trillion on imports in 2024. It argues that the current crisis in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, serves as a catalyst for Asia to transition to electric technologies. The document asserts that scaling EVs, solar, wind, and heat pumps could reduce fossil fuel import bills by approximately 70%, with EVs already displacing 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2025.

The evaluation concludes that the SAP has become operationally ineffective, failing to deliver on its promises of simplification and acceleration. While it has provided unintended value as a 'stepping-stone' for Direct Access Entities (DAEs) to build institutional capacity, it is now virtually indistinguishable from the standard Project Approval Process (PAP). The report recommends discontinuing the SAP in its current form and replacing it with a new, integrated access modality featuring delegated authority and a focus on replicating proven interventions rather than piloting new ideas.

Analysis of the Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker (GOGET) reveals that the time from discovery to production for new oil and gas fields has increased significantly, averaging 15.1 years for fields starting in 2025 compared to 4.9 years between 1960 and 1980. This trend is driven by the depletion of easy-to-access reserves, forcing companies toward technically complex '20K' high-pressure reservoirs, deepwater projects, and 'acid gas' fields. Additional delays stem from stricter environmental regulations, such as the UK's 2025 requirement to include Scope 3 emissions in impact assessments, and ecological risks in protected areas. The report argues that these long lead times increase the risk of creating stranded assets and conflict with the 1.5 °C warming limit, suggesting that capital should be redirected toward renewable energy.

The Universal Basic Income Coalition (UBIC) submits that food insecurity in South Africa is primarily a result of income poverty and landlessness rather than food scarcity. The submission highlights that while social grants have historically improved nutrition, their current adequacy and coverage are declining due to food inflation and fiscal austerity. UBIC proposes transforming the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant into a universal, unconditional, and redistributive basic income for all adults aged 18-59, pegged to the food poverty line (FPL) and eventually the upper-bound poverty line (UBPL).

Russia is attempting to leverage historical liberation-era ties and anti-Western rhetoric to maintain influence in Southern Africa, but faces significant constraints. While it maintains security cooperation and diplomatic links with several SADC members, its economic footprint remains modest, accounting for barely 1% of the region's external trade in 2024. The document highlights a gap between Moscow's symbolic gestures—such as debt forgiveness and limited grain shipments—and tangible developmental results, noting that sanctions and economic weakness hinder its ability to compete with China, the EU, and the US.

The document outlines seven working principles for civil society engagement in national adaptation plan (NAP) processes, co-produced by government and civil society representatives from 11 countries in Africa and the Caribbean. These principles—structured engagement, representation, formalized CSO collaboration, inclusion, enabling environment, open access to information, and transparency—aim to ensure that adaptation decision-making is inclusive, equitable, and informed by the lived experiences of marginalized groups. The principles are intended to apply across all NAP stages, including risk assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL).

The report examines how the UAE and Saudi Arabia are emerging as primary financiers of clean energy in Africa, noting a shift toward multi-billion dollar renewable and hydrogen projects. While GCC investments are substantial, they are currently concentrated in a few low-risk markets like Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa. The authors argue that to maximize impact, the GCC should pivot toward funding transmission infrastructure, geothermal energy, methane abatement, and critical mineral refining across a broader range of African nations.

South Africa holds approximately 80% of global Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), which are essential catalysts for PEM electrolysers and fuel cells used in green hydrogen production. While this provides a strategic opportunity for re-industrialisation and decarbonisation, the transition faces severe constraints, including an outdated electricity grid, water scarcity in high-resource areas, and a significant skills gap. The shift also threatens the coal and internal combustion engine automotive sectors, risking large-scale job losses in regions like Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape. Geopolitically, South Africa must navigate competition between China and Western powers, particularly as the US has withdrawn support for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). The paper argues that for the transition to be 'just', the government must integrate mineral beneficiation with social safeguards, regional SADC integration, and comprehensive workforce reskilling.

The report examines how the green transition is reshaping trade, investment, and geopolitics for Africa. It analyzes the impact of the EU and UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM), the decarbonisation of maritime and aviation sectors, and the potential for Africa to move from raw mineral extraction to EV battery production. It warns that without strategic policy intervention, clean energy exports and critical mineral demand may reproduce extractive economic patterns, while advocating for a unified continental approach to negotiate fairer terms in international climate-trade frameworks.

The Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), supported by the Climate Policy Initiative and Promethium Carbon, has developed two financial instruments to scale the voluntary carbon market (VCM) in South Africa. A proposed carbon credit-backed bond would raise capital for project loans, with repayments consisting of cash interest and carbon credits. A Carbon Repo Facility would provide short- to medium-term liquidity by allowing developers and banks to sell carbon credits with an agreement to repurchase them later. These tools aim to bridge the gap between high demand for offsets—driven by the national carbon tax—and a limited supply of bankable projects caused by high early-stage costs and regulatory ambiguity.

The NAP Global Network's 2025 report details its efforts to move developing countries from adaptation planning to implementation. Key achievements include supporting 18 countries in this transition, delivering 24 short-term technical assistance requests via the Country Support Hub, and managing 13 long-term In-Country Support Programs. The Network emphasizes the importance of monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL), gender equality and social inclusion (GESI), and the integration of nature-based solutions. A new strategic plan to 2030 prioritizes Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), with a focus on accountability, civil society engagement, and the alignment of adaptation planning with peacebuilding and the Global Goal on Adaptation.

The report provides a comparative analysis of how 16 countries and territories are operationalising OECMs through five primary legal and policy pathways: ministerial instruments, national guidelines, administrative procedures, sector-based recognition, and mechanisms for areas beyond national jurisdiction. It finds a high degree of global convergence and alignment with the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Decision 14/8 criteria, while noting that countries adapt these standards to fit their specific governance and legal contexts. The document highlights the rapid growth in OECM reporting between 2021 and 2025 and provides recommendations for scaling these frameworks globally.