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The document argues that the EU's territorial emission reductions underestimate its true carbon footprint due to emissions embedded in imports. It identifies food, housing, and mobility as primary consumption 'hotspots' and calls for a shift from a focus on production efficiency to policies that target consumption patterns and behavioral change. Key barriers include a lack of standardized monitoring and supply chain transparency, while opportunities lie in leveraging the EU's market influence to set common CBE targets and support developing countries in transitioning to low-carbon production.

The study evaluates four scenarios—Business-as-usual (BAU), Renewable Methane (REN-Methane), Renewable Hydrogen (REN-Hydrogen), and Cost Minimal (CM)—for the Baltic-Finland region. It finds that a 100% decarbonized gas supply is possible by 2040 under the CM scenario, which is also the most economically advantageous. The transition requires significant scaling of biomethane and renewable hydrogen, supported by substantial onshore and offshore wind capacity. The report recommends regional coordination on infrastructure, harmonized certification for low-carbon gases, and the potential banning of new fossil fuel boiler installations to meet 2050 net decarbonization goals.

The report evaluates pathways to decarbonise the Baltic-Finnish gas market, comparing a business-as-usual approach with renewable methane, renewable hydrogen, and cost-minimising scenarios. It finds that full decarbonisation by 2050 is possible, with the cost-minimising scenario offering the highest economic benefits, including a 44% reduction in total system costs and the creation of over 20,000 jobs. The analysis emphasises the critical role of onshore and offshore wind energy to power hydrogen production and suggests that existing LNG terminals can be repurposed for synthetic methane and bio-LNG. Key recommendations include regional integration of gas markets, harmonised certification for renewable gases, and the potential legal ban on connecting new buildings to the natural gas grid.

The paper evaluates four pathways—Business-as-usual, Renewable Methane, Renewable Hydrogen, and Cost Minimal—to transition the Baltic states and Finland away from fossil gas. It finds that full decarbonization by 2050 is feasible, with the Cost Minimal scenario offering the highest economic benefits and fastest emission reductions. The study details the necessary wind power capacities, investment requirements (EUR 11.3 billion for the CM scenario), and policy actions needed to integrate regional markets and scale up renewable gas production.

The document argues that the EU's territorial emission reductions mask a growing carbon footprint driven by the import of emissions-intensive goods. It identifies food, housing, and mobility as primary consumption hotspots and recommends binding EU-level targets, mandatory reporting for member states, and enhanced trade transparency to address these emissions.

Analysis of draft NECPs indicates that while EU member states have significantly increased wind and solar targets since 2019, the current trajectory falls short of REPowerEU goals. Renewables are projected to generate 66% of EU electricity by 2030, missing the 72% target. The report highlights a lack of data transparency in the drafts, particularly regarding power system flexibility and post-2030 decarbonisation pathways.

The document evaluates how CEE countries have integrated public consultation and multilevel climate and energy dialogues (MCEDs) into their updated NECPs, finding significant variability in quality and frequent failures to meet European law requirements for early and inclusive engagement.

The report examines Energy Communities (ECs) in the EU, highlighting their role in democratising energy and achieving climate goals. It distinguishes between Citizen Energy Communities (CECs) and Renewable Energy Communities (RECs), noting that as of 2022, over 9,000 ECs were operational in the EU. The document details the climate, economic, and social benefits of these models, such as reduced energy poverty and increased grid resilience. Through case studies of Germany, Denmark, Latvia, and Greece, it illustrates how national legislation and financial incentives—like feed-in tariffs and grants—drive adoption. The report concludes that while the EU is a leader in these models, non-EU nations should consider similar legal recognitions to support a just energy transition.

The report finds that many European national transmission grid plans are based on under-ambitious energy scenarios that lag behind current policy targets and market trends, particularly for solar power. This misalignment risks creating grid bottlenecks that could hinder the deployment of renewables by 2030. While there is a trend toward increasing grid expansion and the adoption of 'non-wire solutions' to alleviate congestion, the report argues that political prioritization and regulatory reform are needed to ensure infrastructure keeps pace with the accelerating energy transition.

The report analyzes the energy strategy of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) countries, finding that planned LNG and pipeline capacity will significantly exceed projected gas demand by 2030. It warns that this creates a risk of stranded assets and security vulnerabilities due to global price volatility. The author advocates for shifting investment from gas infrastructure to wind, solar, and grid interconnectors, noting that 3SI countries could reach a 67% renewable electricity share by 2030.

The Europe Gas Tracker Report 2024 finds that Europe is continuing a massive gas infrastructure buildout despite emerging from its energy crisis and seeing a decline in gas demand. With €84.1 billion in planned LNG terminals and pipelines, the report argues that the region is creating significant overcapacity and risking stranded assets. It further warns that these projects could increase annual emissions by up to 1.1 gigatonnes CO2e, undermining the EU's 'Fit for 55' goals. Additionally, the report characterizes the proposed 35,000 km hydrogen pipeline network as a 'red herring' that may serve to lock in methane gas infrastructure due to technical incompatibilities and the lack of green hydrogen production.

Bulgaria is at a pivotal energy transition point as coal's share of electricity generation fell below 30% in 2023. While solar power has grown rapidly, wind energy has stagnated since 2012. The report highlights a technical offshore wind potential of 4.3-5 GW in the maritime exclusive economic zone near Romania, which could lower wholesale power prices by 45% by 2030 if combined with increased onshore wind and better interconnections. To achieve this, the report recommends the swift adoption of a new offshore wind law, the implementation of Contracts-for-Difference (CfDs), and the update of the National Energy and Climate Plan with explicit 2030 targets.

In 2023, EU fossil fuel generation fell to less than a third of the electricity mix (33%) for the first time, driven by a record 26% drop in coal generation. Wind and solar combined for 27% of EU electricity, with wind surpassing gas power for the first time. While solar capacity grew by 56 GW, wind generation growth remains inconsistent and below the 15% annual increase needed for REPowerEU targets. EU electricity demand fell by 3.4% in 2023 to its lowest level since 2001, though a rise of 2-3% is projected for 2024. To support this transition, the EU requires significant grid investments—estimated at €584 billion by 2030—and an increase in storage capacity to 200 GW by 2030 to manage variable renewable energy and reduce curtailment.

The document argues that superhot rock (SHR) energy—a subset of Engineered Geothermal Systems that accesses rock temperatures exceeding 400°C—could provide a zero-carbon, firm, and energy-dense power source available globally. It notes a significant gap in current EU planning, where only one country (Italy) mentions SHR in its draft NECP, despite 20 countries planning for geothermal energy. The guide recommends that Member States fund pilot demonstrations, map national SHR resources, contribute to a centralised EU geothermal data repository, develop national geothermal strategies, and create stakeholder collaboration platforms. It highlights that SHR systems can potentially produce up to ten times the energy of conventional geothermal wells and could support the production of clean hydrogen.

The study investigates the transition of Poland's power system to a 99% reduction in emissions by 2050. The 'base' scenario identifies onshore wind as the dominant generation source, complemented by nuclear power, gas plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and hydrogen storage. The analysis emphasizes that a technology-inclusive approach is essential for competitiveness, as scenarios excluding nuclear and CCS result in significantly higher electricity prices and system costs. Key recommendations include maximizing onshore wind deployment, advancing a nuclear fleet exceeding 8 GW, and establishing CO2 transport and storage infrastructure by 2035.

Half of the world's economies are at least five years past a peak in fossil power generation, with 107 economies representing 38% of global electricity demand having seen emissions fall by nearly 20% over the last decade. While the EU, Oceania, and North America are in a period of decline, Asia and the Middle East are the only regions yet to reach a peak, though individual countries like Viet Nam and Japan show progress. The report emphasizes that the expansion of wind and solar is the primary driver of fossil fuel displacement, noting that without these technologies, power sector emissions would be 20% higher.

The report critiques the current linear economy and the limitations of the conventional circular economy, proposing instead a 'resource-balanced economy' (RBE) for the SADC region. It argues that the green transition's demand for critical minerals is underestimated and faces thermodynamic and material constraints. To avoid 'financial capture' and poverty traps, the authors advocate for 'anticipatory governance'—a proactive, systems-based approach to policymaking—alongside bioregionalism, re-localisation, and the renegotiation of resource trade agreements to ensure equitable and sustainable development.

The report argues that Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries can significantly lower wholesale power prices and enhance energy security by accelerating the deployment of wind and solar energy. By targeting 200 GW of capacity by 2030, the region could reach a 63% share of renewables in electricity generation. The analysis emphasizes that cross-country collaboration is essential to unlock over 100 GW of offshore wind potential and that aligning national strategies with EU policy could unlock approximately €137 billion in public funding.

The UN 2023 Water Conference, held in New York, focused on accelerating progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6) through the Water Action Agenda. The event resulted in approximately 700 voluntary commitments totaling USD 300 billion and the announcement of a UN Special Envoy for Water. Discussions emphasized the water-food-energy nexus, the human right to water and sanitation, and the need for innovative finance and improved global water data. While the conference generated significant political momentum and new partnerships, analysis suggests that many pledges lack quantifiable targets and that the international community must quadruple its efforts to meet 2030 goals.

The briefing examines the phenomenon of 'weaponized migration,' where states use vulnerable migrants as political pawns, as seen in Belarus's actions toward the EU. It argues that as climate change increases human displacement, this tactic is likely to become more common, necessitating a US policy shift that recognizes climate change as a driver of migration.