Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition

The report finds that many European national transmission grid plans are based on under-ambitious energy scenarios that lag behind current policy targets and market trends, particularly for solar power. This misalignment risks creating grid bottlenecks that could hinder the deployment of renewables by 2030. While there is a trend toward increasing grid expansion and the adoption of 'non-wire solutions' to alleviate congestion, the report argues that political prioritization and regulatory reform are needed to ensure infrastructure keeps pace with the accelerating energy transition.

• A significant number of national transmission grid plans are based on energy scenarios that are less ambitious than established national policy targets for 2030. Out of 26 plans analyzed with adequate data, 11 use scenarios where combined wind and solar capacity is lower than national targets, representing a total shortfall of 65 GW.
• Grid planning is particularly misaligned with market forecasts for solar energy. Nineteen of 23 examined national grid plans underestimate solar deployment compared to SolarPower Europe’s business-as-usual scenario, with a total shortfall of 205 GW by 2030.
• The European Commission's REPowerEU estimate for annual grid investment of €58.4 billion is likely too low. Current annual spending in EU Member States is approximately €63 billion, consisting of €28 billion for transmission grids and €35 billion for distribution grids (based on 2022 data).
• Grid congestion is already causing substantial financial costs. In 2023, Spain spent €2.04 billion to manage its congested transmission grid, which exceeded its average annual investment of €1.16 billion in the grid's development. Similarly, Germany spent over €4 billion on congestion management in 2022.
• There is a projected acceleration in physical grid expansion. Across 25 plans, transmission line length is expected to grow by 3.8% between 2023-2026 and then increase by 8.1% between 2027-2030.
• TSOs are increasingly using 'non-wire solutions' to rapidly address capacity shortages. These include dynamic line rating to allow lines to operate closer to thermal limits and load flexibility initiatives to reduce peak demand.

APA

Cremona, E., & Rosslowe, D. C. (2024). Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/03/Grids-for-Europes-Energy-Transition-Report-1.pdf

Chicago

Cremona, Elisabeth, and Dr Chris Rosslowe. Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition. Ember, 2024. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/03/Grids-for-Europes-Energy-Transition-Report-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cremona |first1=Elisabeth |last2=Rosslowe |first2=Dr Chris |title=Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition |publisher=Ember |date=13 March 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/03/Grids-for-Europes-Energy-Transition-Report-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cremona2024putting, author = {Cremona, Elisabeth and Rosslowe, Dr Chris}, title = {{Putting the mission in transmission: Grids for Europe’s energy transition}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/03/Grids-for-Europes-Energy-Transition-Report-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }