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From June 11-13, 2024, over 290 million people in Northern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East are forecast to experience extreme heat made at least five times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Maximum temperatures of 40°C or higher are expected in several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Egypt. The document highlights risks including wildfires in Greece, damage to Bulgaria's rose oil production, and increased vulnerability for refugees in Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria.

The report analyzes the current state of fossil fuel production references in the climate commitments of the 20 largest producers and provides a framework for including production phase-outs in future NDCs and LT-LEDS. It finds that most producers either omit production plans or signal continued extraction, which contradicts 1.5°C-compatible scenarios. The authors propose five key elements for new commitments: background production data, phase-out targets, restrictive policies, just transition planning, and equity-based international cooperation.

The Houthi movement utilizes a diverse network of official and unofficial digital channels to project influence and solidarity with Palestinians, leveraging a 'grey area' in platform moderation and government designations to avoid total censorship. The group's messaging is amplified by Iranian state media, pro-Kremlin networks, and far-left commentators, while official English-language content is carefully curated to be more palatable to international audiences than its Arabic counterparts.

The report argues that climate change and the energy transition provide new vectors for mis- and disinformation that extend beyond simple climate denialism. It categorizes these threats into physical risks (e.g., misattributing disasters), cascading risks (e.g., xenophobic narratives around climate migration), and response risks (e.g., backlash to green policies). The document highlights the role of geopolitical competition, particularly involving Russia and China, and the amplifying effect of low institutional trust and AI technology. It recommends integrating misinformation risk assessments into climate policy design and strengthening monitoring capabilities.

The paper examines the security implications of geoengineering, distinguishing between long-term risks of unilateral deployment and near-term risks involving geopolitical competition and misinformation. It highlights how a lack of trust between the Global North and South, combined with strategic competition between powers like the US, China, and Russia, could lead to states attributing natural disasters to perceived geoengineering attempts. Drawing on historical examples like Project Popeye and the 1978 ENMOD treaty, the author argues against a total ban on geoengineering, suggesting instead that the US lead the development of transparent, civilian-led guardrails and robust science diplomacy to mitigate these risks while continuing the transition from fossil fuels.

The report highlights a contradictory global trend: while most countries are reducing coal construction and many are committing to phase-outs, global coal capacity increased by 11% since 2015, reaching a record high in 2023. This growth is driven primarily by China, which accounted for two-thirds of the 2023 increase. Outside China, new construction starts reached their lowest level since 2015. The report notes that only 15% of global operational capacity has a documented phase-out plan aligned with the 1.5°C goal. Regional analyses show significant progress in the EU and UK, though some countries lag behind 2030 targets, and a volatile situation in Sub-Saharan Africa where South Africa remains heavily dependent on coal despite an energy crisis.

Global Energy Monitor identifies 74 new oil and gas projects that could emit 2.4 million metric tonnes of methane annually by 2030, potentially undermining the Global Methane Pledge. The analysis reveals significant discrepancies between these potential emissions and the company-wide figures reported by operators to the OGMP 2.0, suggesting widespread underreporting of assets or methane intensity. A small number of fields in Saudi Arabia and Guyana account for a disproportionate share of these emissions, while new EU regulations on imported oil and gas are expected to impact many of these developments.

The document outlines a 24-month readiness and preparatory support programme for Iran, implemented by the FAO. It aims to address barriers to climate finance by establishing a National Climate Change Knowledge Hub, updating Technology Need Assessments, and supporting the accreditation of national Direct Access Entities. The project focuses on creating a bankable project pipeline, improving inter-agency coordination through the National Climate Change Working Group, and developing a National Climate Change Mitigation Plan, with a specific emphasis on the energy sector and gender-responsive climate action.

The document argues that superhot rock energy could provide a ubiquitous, carbon-free, and land-efficient power source for the MENA region, leveraging existing subsurface expertise from the oil and gas industry to overcome technological hurdles.

The report finds that since the 2021 IEA Net Zero roadmap, at least 20.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of new oil and gas discoveries have been announced. In 2023 alone, 20 fields were approved for development, sanctioning 8 billion boe. The analysis highlights a significant disconnect between the industry's push for new reserves—particularly in South America and Africa—and climate goals, noting that current production pathways are significantly higher than 1.5 degree compatible scenarios. It specifically criticizes the use of scope one and two emissions claims to justify projects while ignoring scope three emissions.

The document details Kazakhstan's efforts to eliminate its inherited Soviet nuclear and biological weapons legacies and its current leadership roles in the NPT and the proposed International Agency for Biological Safety (IABS). It recommends that Kazakhstan push for the elimination of tactical nuclear weapons, the creation of a nuclear weapons database, and the formalization of the IABS to address gaps in the Biological Weapons Convention.

The document assesses the contemporary UK landscape of hate and extremism, highlighting a shift toward 'hybridised' threats where ideological boundaries blur and online ecosystems drive real-world violence. It identifies the extreme right as the most dynamic threat, particularly among youth, while noting that Islamist extremism remains the dominant terrorism threat. The report also details the rise of anti-LGBTQ+, anti-migrant, and antisemitic hate, often amplified by international conflicts and hostile state actors from Russia, Iran, and China. To counter these, the authors propose a unified policy framework that integrates social cohesion, a rights-based definition of extremism, and a public health model of violence prevention, moving away from siloed counter-terrorism approaches.

The report analyzes the relationship between the diversion of firearms—the transfer of weapons from legal to illicit realms—and illicit trafficking. It details various diversion typologies, including 'leakage' from state stocks, straw purchases, and the misuse of export documentation. Through 12 case studies spanning Europe, Africa, the Americas, and Asia, the document demonstrates how the UN Firearms Protocol's requirements for marking, record-keeping, and international judicial cooperation are critical for dismantling trafficking networks. It emphasizes that while diversion can occur domestically, it often serves as a prerequisite for cross-border trafficking, which requires a coordinated international criminal justice response to be effectively countered.

The report finds that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly eroded international arms control, leading to the breakdown of key treaties like New START and the CFE Treaty, and the unilateral reduction of compliance by Russia in others. It highlights a trend of 'weaponizing' arms control forums to spread disinformation and a decline in verification mechanisms. However, the authors note that adherence to many international norms remains largely intact and that violations have provoked diplomatic responses that may refocus global attention on the necessity of disarmament.

The document examines how disparate fringe movements—including the far right, far left, and Islamist groups—find common ground through shared antisemitic narratives. It highlights a trend of 'hybridisation' on social media where these groups cross-fertilise narratives, such as the belief that Jews possess disproportionate global power or the conspiracy theory that Israel was responsible for the October 7 attacks. The briefing argues that antisemitism is best predicted by conspiratorial worldviews and authoritarian preferences rather than specific left- or right-wing political views, and calls for a 'cross-harm perspective' to tackle these intersecting hate narratives.

Global gas pipeline construction has increased by 18% over the previous year, with approximately 69,700 km under construction at a cost of US$193.9 billion. Asia accounts for 82% of this construction, led by China and India. Other significant activities include the U.S. expanding export capacity from the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale, and Argentina developing infrastructure for the Vaca Muerta shale gas reserve.

The document examines the precarious safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlighting risks such as loss of offsite power and cooling water. It argues that while customary international law, the Geneva Conventions' Additional Protocols, and the Pelindaba Treaty provide a framework to prohibit attacks on nuclear installations, these norms are often sidelined by political considerations. The author concludes that rather than creating new conventions, the international community must strengthen the enforcement and accountability of existing legal frameworks to prevent nuclear disasters.

The briefing highlights the unprecedented inclusion of peace on the COP28 agenda, the role of climate finance as a security tool and geopolitical flashpoint, the environmental and security impacts of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and the security implications of the first Global Stocktake's findings on temperature rise.

On July 7, 2023, the United States destroyed the last of its declared chemical weapons stockpile, marking the elimination of 100 percent of the world's declared chemical weapons. The process was overseen by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and faced delays due to technical challenges and local opposition to incineration methods at sites like the Pueblo Chemical Depot and Blue Grass Army Depot. Despite this milestone, the report highlights ongoing noncompliance by Burma, Iran, Russia, and Syria, and the use of Novichok nerve agents. It argues that the U.S. must retain its scientific and technical countering-WMD expertise to assist in treaty verification and respond to future contingencies, especially as other nonproliferation frameworks, such as the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, face increasing fragility.

The EU-Iran relationship has deteriorated following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and recent regional conflicts. Iran has responded by breaching nuclear limits and forging strategic alliances with Russia and China, including joining the SCO and BRICS. The author suggests the EU shift toward incentives and new areas of collaboration, such as climate cooperation and the Paris Agreement, to maintain influence and prevent a regional nuclear arms race.