Geoengineering and Climate Change in an Age of Disinformation and Strategic Competition

The paper examines the security implications of geoengineering, distinguishing between long-term risks of unilateral deployment and near-term risks involving geopolitical competition and misinformation. It highlights how a lack of trust between the Global North and South, combined with strategic competition between powers like the US, China, and Russia, could lead to states attributing natural disasters to perceived geoengineering attempts. Drawing on historical examples like Project Popeye and the 1978 ENMOD treaty, the author argues against a total ban on geoengineering, suggesting instead that the US lead the development of transparent, civilian-led guardrails and robust science diplomacy to mitigate these risks while continuing the transition from fossil fuels.

• The most urgent security risks associated with geoengineering are near-term and relate to perceptions and geopolitical competition rather than the actual physical outcomes of the interventions.
• Large-scale, successful unilateral deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection is currently unlikely in the near term due to daunting technical requirements, such as the need for new fixed-wing aircraft designs and the difficulty of maintaining a secret, multi-country operation.
• Geoengineering may become more attractive as a 'climate shortcut' for different actors: Global North countries may use it to avoid risky socio-economic changes, developing countries may use it to protect against climate impacts while continuing fossil fuel use, and high-emitting businesses may use it to offset their business models.
• Existing geoengineering research and governance reports, such as those from the US White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the National Academy of Sciences, lack detail on how to handle international governance obstacles or non-adherence by other countries.
• Historical weather modification efforts, specifically the US Department of Defense's Project Popeye in North Vietnam and Laos, led to international backlash and the eventual 1978 Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification (ENMOD).
• Geoengineering and weather modification are susceptible to disinformation and conspiracy theories, such as 'chemtrails', which can be weaponized by states to deflect blame for climate mismanagement or undermine adversaries.
• The author recommends that the US avoid pursuing a total ban on geoengineering and instead lead the creation of transparent, civilian-led guardrails and norms, utilizing lessons from nuclear nonproliferation and bioethics.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (2024). Geoengineering and Climate Change in an Age of Disinformation and Strategic Competition. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/04/23/geoengineering-and-climate-change-in-an-age-of-disinformation-and-strategic-competition/

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Geoengineering and Climate Change in an Age of Disinformation and Strategic Competition. 2024. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/04/23/geoengineering-and-climate-change-in-an-age-of-disinformation-and-strategic-competition/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Geoengineering and Climate Change in an Age of Disinformation and Strategic Competition |date=23 April 2024 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/04/23/geoengineering-and-climate-change-in-an-age-of-disinformation-and-strategic-competition/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisks2024geoengineering, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Geoengineering and Climate Change in an Age of Disinformation and Strategic Competition}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2024}, month = apr, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/04/23/geoengineering-and-climate-change-in-an-age-of-disinformation-and-strategic-competition/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }