Search Climate Insights Directory

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and LNG flows. Japan, South Korea, India, and China are the most exposed, collectively accounting for 75% of oil and 59% of LNG flows through the route. Japan is identified as the most at-risk country due to its extreme reliance on imported fossil fuels. A blockade could trigger global price surges, potentially pushing oil to USD 130 or even USD 300 per barrel. The document suggests that transitioning to renewables and electrification, as seen in Europe's response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, is essential to mitigate these geopolitical risks.

The document examines the trend of ASEAN countries increasing LNG import infrastructure, with planned investments of USD 20.4 billion. It argues that LNG fails to provide true energy security due to its sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, and competition for supply with Europe. The author suggests that Southeast Asian nations should instead prioritize domestic renewable energy, leverage their own solar manufacturing capacity, and accelerate the ASEAN Power Grid to enhance resilience and reduce import dependency.

The briefing asserts that authoritarian regimes, specifically Russia, China, and Iran, are using hybrid warfare to undermine trust in democratic institutions and divide liberal societies. It argues that current government responses are too siloed and reactive, failing to deliver results. To counter this, the author proposes three strategic pillars: establishing a comprehensive counter-hybrid doctrine that includes asymmetric and offensive capabilities, reorganizing government structures to enable holistic coordination and multi-stakeholder coalitions, and prioritizing strategic communications to outcompete authoritarian narratives both domestically and internationally.

The research paper argues that hybrid threats—combining hostile state operations with extremist violence—require a 'whole-of-society' prevention approach. It suggests adopting a 'public health' model of prevention, categorised into primary (building resilience), secondary (targeted vulnerability efforts), and tertiary (minimising acute harm) interventions. The authors emphasize the need to break down government silos between domestic and foreign security, avoid the over-securitisation of communities, and integrate gender and intersectional analysis into threat assessments.

The document analyzes the strategic role of BRICS+ countries in the global critical minerals market, focusing on the potential for African members to move up the value chain and the complex dynamics of their cooperation with the European Union.

A super-rapid attribution study by World Weather Attribution finds that human-induced climate change has significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of a five-year drought in Iran and the Tigris-Euphrates basin. The analysis shows that while low-rainfall years are natural to the region, the current 'extreme' to 'exceptional' drought conditions would have been very rare in a pre-industrial climate. The study highlights that warming increases evaporative demand, prolonging droughts and compounding the effects of socio-economic stressors like unsustainable groundwater extraction and water-intensive agriculture.

The policy brief examines how water scarcity empowers non-state armed groups, delegitimizes state authority, and fuels transboundary disputes, while proposing that the US utilize its technological leadership and mediation experience to maintain geopolitical stability.

The report finds that while total emissions from 25 major emitters may peak by 2026, current policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Fifteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets, while nine are off track, including the US, UK, and Japan. Projections for the US have worsened due to policy rollbacks, and eight countries are already projected to miss their 2035 unconditional NDC targets.

The briefing examines the 'Middle East Paradoxon,' where Israel faces increased internal instability and lost soft power despite a lack of immediate military threats from its Arab neighbors. It analyzes the fallout from a September 9, 2025, Israeli strike in Doha, which triggered rare Arab unity and accelerated a strategic realignment away from the United States. The author discusses the 'Trump Peace Plan' for Gaza as a rupture that may bring hostages home but faces significant risks of derailment due to its vague nature and opposition from Israeli ultranationalists. Additionally, the text highlights a new nuclear shield agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and the potential for Syria to become a site of power struggle between Turkey and Israel following the toppling of Bashar al-Asad.

The report examines the risks associated with the renewed interest in tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) among global powers. It details three plausible use scenarios—targeting facilities, military forces in the field, or demonstration shots—and models the direct physical effects of a 20-kiloton blast. The authors argue that TNW use would trigger unpredictable international crises, erode the long-standing norm of nuclear non-use, and potentially lead to uncontrolled escalation. The paper recommends reinforcing the non-use norm and implementing risk-reduction measures to prevent the normalization of nuclear warfighting.

The document examines Nigeria's vulnerability to global energy transitions due to its heavy reliance on oil and gas exports, high production costs, and limited economic diversification. It highlights the risks of reduced government revenue and job losses while identifying opportunities in critical minerals, natural gas as a transition fuel, and non-oil sector growth.

The briefing highlights that global plastic polymer production is highly concentrated, with seven countries producing 66% of the world's plastics and 18 companies responsible for over half of global production. It further notes that China, Saudi Arabia, and Germany provide 80% of the feedstock subsidies among the top 15 producers, while a small group of oil and gas-producing states opposes production caps in treaty negotiations.

The document analyzes the institutional strain on BRICS caused by its expansion, noting that while the bloc's global influence has grown, its consensus-based governance struggles with divergent member interests. It evaluates Brazil's 2025 presidency, which attempted to prioritize institutional development but saw most structural reforms deferred in the Rio Declaration. The authors contrast the informal nature of the broader bloc with the formal success of the New Development Bank (NDB) and propose six targeted, low-bureaucracy improvements—including a shared document repository and standardized onboarding—to improve operational effectiveness without sacrificing the group's flexible identity.

The report examines how AI accelerates biological research, creating a 'dual-use dilemma' where tools for medical advancement can be repurposed for bioweapons. It analyzes the 'risk chain' of biological weapon development, the capabilities of foundation models and biological design tools (BDTs), and the geopolitical landscape involving the US, China, and Russia. The document proposes a 'preferred' 2030 scenario characterized by geopolitical stability and responsible AI development, offering specific US policy recommendations across biosecurity foundations, technical governance, and international diplomacy.

The research paper examines whether South Africa has eclipsed Nigeria as Africa's dominant power. While Nigeria maintains significant demographic and resource-based weight, the author argues that South Africa has leveraged multilateral institutions, a diverse economy, and a value-driven foreign policy to achieve greater global visibility and influence. The analysis highlights Nigeria's internal security challenges and strategic drift as factors that have diminished its international standing, while noting that South Africa faces its own domestic vulnerabilities, including energy crises and high unemployment.

BRICS nations now generate over half of the world's solar power, driven primarily by China, India, and Brazil. In 2024, these countries accounted for 51% of global solar electricity generation, with China alone contributing 39%. Solar power met 37% of the total increase in electricity generation across BRICS members in 2024, contributing to a total clean energy share of 70% for new generation growth. While China, India, and Brazil show strong continued growth in 2025, other members like Russia, Indonesia, and Egypt lag in solar deployment or remain dependent on fossil fuels.

Twenty years after the 7/7 bombings, Islamist extremism remains a significant security threat in the UK, though it has shifted from top-down, group-organised attacks to grassroots, self-initiated actions by loosely connected individuals. The landscape is now characterised by a mix of traditional ideologies and hybridised forms of extremism amplified by social media. While some global movements have transitioned toward nationalist local governance, others, particularly in Africa, are expanding. A critical emerging trend is the radicalisation of minors, with a significant portion of recent terrorism convictions involving children and a rise in Prevent referrals for youth.

The BRICS bloc generated over half of the world's electricity in 2024, with China dominating renewable energy production. While solar and wind capacity have grown exponentially in China, India, and Brazil since 2015, progress has stalled in Russia and South Africa. Hydropower's share of BRICS renewable generation fell from 82% in 2015 to 45% in 2023 as solar and wind expanded. China leads the bloc in total renewable energy jobs, though Brazil has the highest proportion of such jobs relative to its population.

The document outlines a new energy security framework for Central and Eastern Europe, emphasizing the transition to clean energy to reduce vulnerabilities associated with fossil fuel imports and geopolitical instability. It advocates for the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, the establishment of a grid security framework to counter hybrid warfare, and the expansion of the EU single energy market through harmonized permitting and increased interconnectivity. Additionally, it calls for the EU to adopt an incentive-based investment approach, similar to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, to maintain global competitiveness and avoid reliance on non-EU financing.

The briefing warns that 63 oil and gas fields in development could emit 2,300 kilotonnes of methane annually by 2030, a volume comparable to current fossil fuel production emissions in Europe. It highlights a critical gap where high-emitting projects in countries exporting to the EU will reach peak capacity before EU methane regulations take full effect in 2027 and 2030. The report notes significant data transparency failures among top operators and argues that continued investment in new infrastructure undermines the Global Methane Pledge and overall climate mitigation efforts.