Lessons from Extremism Prevention for Countering Hybrid Threats

The research paper argues that hybrid threats—combining hostile state operations with extremist violence—require a 'whole-of-society' prevention approach. It suggests adopting a 'public health' model of prevention, categorised into primary (building resilience), secondary (targeted vulnerability efforts), and tertiary (minimising acute harm) interventions. The authors emphasize the need to break down government silos between domestic and foreign security, avoid the over-securitisation of communities, and integrate gender and intersectional analysis into threat assessments.

• There is an increasing convergence between hostile state hybrid threats and extremist violence, particularly in the recruitment of young people via platforms like Telegram and Snapchat. In the UK, minors aged 17 and under represented nearly 20% of terrorism-offence arrests in 2023, while in the EU, over 29% of those arrested for terrorism offences in 2024 were minors.
• Hostile states like Russia and Iran utilize 'violence-as-a-service' by leveraging criminal networks and 'ghost proxies' to maintain plausible deniability. For instance, the 'Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right' functioned as a ghost proxy for IRGC-backed activities, and Russia has used approximately 1,100 Ukrainians as proxies for sabotage and arson since February 2022, with 240 of these being minors.
• Effective responses to hybrid threats require a 'whole-of-government' approach that bridges the gap between domestic and foreign security agencies. The document highlights Germany's model, where the domestic intelligence service's mission is framed as the 'protection of the constitution and its democratic values' rather than just public safety.
• The paper advocates for a 'public health' model of prevention divided into three tiers: primary prevention (e.g., digital citizenship education and 'inoculation' against propaganda), secondary prevention (e.g., evidence-driven strategic communications and alternative narratives), and tertiary prevention (e.g., disrupting financing via blockchain analytics and legal designations).
• To avoid 'community securitisation'—which can fuel mistrust and radicalisation—governments should move away from relying on unrepresentative 'community leaders' and instead engage with a diverse range of voices, particularly within diaspora communities.
• Gender and intersectionality are identified as critical analytical tools for understanding hybrid threats. The document notes that hostile actors exploit narratives around masculinity, loss of status, and identity, and that specific groups—such as queer members of diaspora communities or racialised journalists—experience these threats differently.

APA

Comerford, M., Winterbotham, E., Guhl, J., & Smith, M. (2026). Lessons from Extremism Prevention for Countering Hybrid Threats. Institute for Strategic Dialogue. https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lessons-in-Extremism-Prevention-for-Countering-Hybrid-Threats-A-Framework-for-Policy-Response.pdf

Chicago

Comerford, Milo, Emily Winterbotham, Jakob Guhl, and Melanie Smith. Lessons from Extremism Prevention for Countering Hybrid Threats. Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2026. https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lessons-in-Extremism-Prevention-for-Countering-Hybrid-Threats-A-Framework-for-Policy-Response.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Comerford |first1=Milo |last2=Winterbotham |first2=Emily |last3=Guhl |first3=Jakob |last4=Smith |first4=Melanie |title=Lessons from Extremism Prevention for Countering Hybrid Threats |publisher=Institute for Strategic Dialogue |date=2026 |url=https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lessons-in-Extremism-Prevention-for-Countering-Hybrid-Threats-A-Framework-for-Policy-Response.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{comerford2026lessons, author = {Comerford, Milo and Winterbotham, Emily and Guhl, Jakob and Smith, Melanie}, title = {{Lessons from Extremism Prevention for Countering Hybrid Threats}}, institution = {Institute for Strategic Dialogue}, year = {2026}, url = {https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lessons-in-Extremism-Prevention-for-Countering-Hybrid-Threats-A-Framework-for-Policy-Response.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }