Search Climate Insights Directory

The report examines the financial and operational crisis facing South African municipal electricity distribution, characterized by rising bulk costs from Eskom and a massive infrastructure maintenance backlog. It proposes that municipalities leverage the growing amount of behind-the-meter rooftop solar PV—estimated at 3,495 MWp as of December 2024—to reduce reliance on expensive bulk purchases. By purchasing curtailed excess power and deploying leased BESS for peak demand arbitrage, municipalities could significantly increase operating surpluses to fund infrastructure renewal. The report specifically analyzes the City of Johannesburg, arguing that rooftop solar is not the primary cause of its revenue decline—which is instead driven by high technical and non-technical losses—and warns that punitive policies toward solar owners may accelerate grid defection.

The Centre for Environmental Rights, acting for the Vaal Environmental Justice Alliance (VEJA), submitted formal objections to ArcelorMittal South Africa's (AMSA) application for an alternative SO2 emission limit at its Vanderbijlpark Works. The objections argue that granting a limit of 1,500 mg/Nm³—three times the legal standard of 500 mg/Nm³—would violate constitutional rights to a healthy environment, ignore the conversion of SO2 into dangerous particulate matter (PM), and prioritize corporate cost-savings over public health in a known pollution hotspot.

The report examines South Africa's development prospects to 2043, contrasting a 'Current Path' of modest growth and persistent poverty with a 'Combined scenario' where strategic interventions in manufacturing, trade, infrastructure, and governance lead to a 33% increase in GDP per capita. It highlights critical structural constraints, including a high disease burden, poor education quality, and energy insecurity, while proposing a transition toward an export-led, green economy.

The report outlines South Africa's transition from apartheid to democracy, its current economic challenges including deindustrialisation and low savings rates, and the state of its mining sector and infrastructure. It details the country's political fragmentation following the 2024 elections and the formation of a Government of National Unity.

The report analyzes Lesotho's development prospects up to 2043. Under the Current Path, GDP is projected to grow to US$7.6 billion, but poverty and food insecurity remain endemic. The report evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios, finding that the 'Free Trade' scenario offers the highest per capita income boost, while the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario could raise GDP per capita to US$7,375 and significantly reduce poverty to 27.7%. Energy access is identified as a critical constraint, with the 'Leapfrogging' and 'Infrastructure' scenarios proposing significant increases in electricity access through renewables and grid investment.

The document analyzes the transition of South Africa from dominant-party rule to a coalition-based political landscape. It examines the formation and fragility of the 10-party Government of National Unity (GNU), provincial coalitions in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Northern Cape, and the chronic instability of municipal coalitions. The authors argue that while coalitions can broaden representation and introduce checks and balances, South Africa's current reliance on informal, non-binding agreements leads to gridlock and a reliance on courts for dispute resolution. The paper recommends formalizing coalition pacts, limiting motions of no confidence, and establishing transparent monitoring mechanisms to restore public trust.

South Africa holds approximately 80% of global Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), which are essential catalysts for PEM electrolysers and fuel cells used in green hydrogen production. While this provides a strategic opportunity for re-industrialisation and decarbonisation, the transition faces severe constraints, including an outdated electricity grid, water scarcity in high-resource areas, and a significant skills gap. The shift also threatens the coal and internal combustion engine automotive sectors, risking large-scale job losses in regions like Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape. Geopolitically, South Africa must navigate competition between China and Western powers, particularly as the US has withdrawn support for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). The paper argues that for the transition to be 'just', the government must integrate mineral beneficiation with social safeguards, regional SADC integration, and comprehensive workforce reskilling.

The report identifies an investible renewable energy market in South Africa of R161.2 billion across 12.9 GW of capacity by 2030. It highlights two primary investment areas: large-scale solar PV, wind, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) targeting the private wheeling market, and behind-the-meter (BTM) solar PV and BESS for commercial and industrial users. Key drivers include electricity price instability, decarbonisation pressures from international regulations like the EU's CSRD, and energy security needs. However, the market faces significant barriers, most notably severe grid connection constraints in high-resource zones and a lack of standardised municipal wheeling frameworks. The report also notes the transition toward a competitive South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM) and the introduction of the Independent Transmission Infrastructure Procurement Programme (ITIPP) to attract private capital for grid expansion.

The submission argues that South Africa's draft second NDC lacks sufficient ambition and fails to reflect the 'highest possible ambition' required by the Paris Agreement. It proposes more stringent emission targets—350 Mt CO2e for 2025-2030 and 248 Mt CO2e for 2031-2035—based on 'fair share' calculations and the best available science. The document highlights legal risks under the South African Constitution, the Climate Change Act, and NEMA, while criticizing the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) for a non-transparent process that delayed the release of the underlying technical report. It further calls for a stronger focus on phasing out fossil fuels, enhancing climate adaptation for vulnerable groups, and incorporating climate justice principles from the Presidential Climate Commission's recommendations.

The Centre for Environmental Rights (CER), on behalf of the Life After Coal Campaign, submitted comments on the Presidential Climate Commission's (PCC) draft recommendations for South Africa's 2030–2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) update. The submission emphasizes the need for high mitigation ambition to avoid fossil fuel lock-in, the integration of social justice, and the urgent implementation of adaptation measures in accordance with the Climate Change Act.

South Africa has committed to an ambitious plan of action to prevent and respond to violence against children by 2027, including implementing parenting programmes in 52 districts and strengthening school safety via the 2024 Basic Education Laws Amendment Act. However, the authors contend that these goals are jeopardized by the Social Development Department's failure to pay NGO service providers in provinces like Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, as well as a lack of operational competence and clean audits at the national level. The document emphasizes that because NGOs deliver most services, the state must implement the Sector Funding Policy and adopt a holistic approach to family services to succeed.

The report argues that South Africa's current free basic services (FBS) for electricity and water are insufficient to lift households out of poverty, providing only 'survival access' rather than 'developmental access'. It finds that for 40% of the population living below the lower-bound poverty line, current tariffs are unaffordable, often forcing a trade-off between paying for utilities and purchasing adequate nutrition. The document identifies 'adverse inclusion'—where physical connection to a grid exists but the terms of use are restrictive or unaffordable—as a primary barrier to socioeconomic development. It recommends increasing free electricity from 50kWh to 150kWh and water from 6kl to 8kl per month for the poorest 7.5 million households, while replacing municipal discretion in indigent registration with a national policy.

The report uses the SATIMGE modelling framework to compare a least-cost Reference Case against various Policy Scenarios and an 'Ideal Energy Scenario' for South Africa. The Ideal Energy Scenario targets net zero CO2 by 2050 with a cumulative GHG limit of 8 Gt CO2-eq, featuring a systemic shift to 80% public transport, expanded social provisioning for low-income households (including 6.5 million solar water heaters), and a domestic clean energy manufacturing sector with 85% local content. Results indicate that while total system investment costs increase, an affordable and socially inclusive transition is possible, with energy sector employment increasing due to localisation measures, despite a slight relative decline in economy-wide employment compared to the Reference Case.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) criticizes South Africa's Budget 3.0 as an 'austerity budget' that reverses previous spending gains. The IEJ highlights significant reductions in non-interest spending, social grants, and infrastructure projects compared to earlier budget versions. The document argues that the government is relying on regressive revenue measures, such as fuel levy increases and unadjusted income tax brackets, while ignoring progressive alternatives and failing to utilize available reserves like the GFECRA.

The document asserts that Johannesburg's efforts to implement 4IR initiatives, such as its Smart City Strategy, are hindered by systemic governance weaknesses, including political instability and administrative inefficiency. It highlights specific urban challenges in transport, pedestrian safety, and waste management, proposing 4IR solutions like real-time data analytics and blockchain transparency. Drawing on a case study of Medellín, Colombia, the brief recommends shifting toward participatory budgeting, digital land registries, and integrated transport systems to ensure technological advancements reduce inequality and improve urban resilience.

The report examines the state of green public procurement (GPP) in South Africa, noting that while the country lacks dedicated GPP legislation, the Public Procurement Act of 2024 provides a new opening for sustainable development measures. It highlights successful subnational initiatives in the Western Cape and cities like Cape Town and Tshwane, but identifies systemic barriers including a 'fear of the auditor', high perceived 'green premiums', and limited capacity among small, medium, and micro enterprises (SMMEs). The authors recommend embedding GPP into national law, creating a centralized knowledge platform, and developing a robust monitoring and evaluation framework to track environmental outcomes.

The policy brief advocates for an evidence-based approach to transforming land administration in South Africa, specifically addressing off-register rights in urban and rural settings. It highlights that current formal registration systems fail to capture the social and customary norms governing land use, such as 'family houses' in cities and household-level rights in rural areas. The author argues that a comprehensive, transformed land administration system is necessary to record these diverse tenures and resolve disputes administratively rather than relying solely on constrained common-law court remedies.

The report evaluates how national, provincial, city, and corporate entities in South Africa incorporate social justice into their net zero commitments. It finds significant disparities in ambition and implementation, with wealthy urban centres leading and less affluent provinces lagging. While the financial sector and some state-owned enterprises show strong just transition frameworks, many private companies and multinational corporations rely on vague offsetting strategies with limited socio-economic integration.

The report outlines a shift in South Africa's renewable energy sector from public procurement to private off-taker agreements, driven by electricity market liberalisation and corporate decarbonisation needs. It estimates a total investment potential of R132 billion for private renewable energy development and R16 billion for local component manufacturing by 2030. Key barriers include severe grid capacity constraints in high-resource provinces and policy uncertainty regarding the future of public procurement programmes.

The document examines the decline of voter participation in South Africa, attributing it to a perceived lack of accountability and a disconnect between voting and service delivery. Based on workshops with 309 participants, it suggests moving toward direct representation and enhancing civic education to restore faith in the democratic process.