MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT SOUTH AFRICA 2025

The report outlines a shift in South Africa's renewable energy sector from public procurement to private off-taker agreements, driven by electricity market liberalisation and corporate decarbonisation needs. It estimates a total investment potential of R132 billion for private renewable energy development and R16 billion for local component manufacturing by 2030. Key barriers include severe grid capacity constraints in high-resource provinces and policy uncertainty regarding the future of public procurement programmes.

• The South African large-scale renewable energy market is shifting from public procurement via the REIPPPP toward private off-taker agreements, which have emerged as the primary driver of new projects.
• Severe grid capacity constraints exist, with zero available capacity for new large-scale developments in the Northern Cape, Western Cape, and Eastern Cape, and limited capacity in Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Gauteng, and KwaZulu-Natal.
• The unbundling of Eskom is underway, with the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA) becoming operational in July 2024 and the National Electricity Distribution Company South Africa (NEDCSA) expected to be operational in 2026.
• Corporate demand for renewable energy is driven by the need for energy security and international regulations such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which pressures companies to decarbonise supply chains.
• South Africa's manufacturing environment is competitive in solar panel assembly, battery module assembly, and inverter production, scoring high on profitability and quality compared to China, India, Morocco, and Kenya.
• Local manufacturers face significant competition from imports; in 2023, solar PV module imports reached R42.4 billion, while exports were only R1.6 billion.
• The South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM), approved in June 2024 and due for launch in early 2025, aims to industrialise the renewable energy and energy storage value chain.

APA

Terblanche, U., Magoda, N., Khoza, S., Radmore, J., Pienaar, C., Basson, L., Raw, B., & Fordyce, N. (2025). MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT SOUTH AFRICA 2025. GreenCape. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Large-Scale-Renewable-Energy-2025.pdf

Chicago

Terblanche, Ulrich, Nyawasedza Magoda, Sithobile Khoza, Jack Radmore, Cilnette Pienaar, Lauren Basson, Bruce Raw, and Nicholas Fordyce. MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT SOUTH AFRICA 2025. GreenCape, 2025. https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Large-Scale-Renewable-Energy-2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{terblanche2025market, author = {Terblanche, Ulrich and Magoda, Nyawasedza and Khoza, Sithobile and Radmore, Jack and Pienaar, Cilnette and Basson, Lauren and Raw, Bruce and Fordyce, Nicholas}, title = {{MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT SOUTH AFRICA 2025}}, institution = {GreenCape}, year = {2025}, url = {https://greencape.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Large-Scale-Renewable-Energy-2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }