Coalition Politics, Democratic Accountability and the Potential for Reform in Post-Majority South Africa

The document analyzes the transition of South Africa from dominant-party rule to a coalition-based political landscape. It examines the formation and fragility of the 10-party Government of National Unity (GNU), provincial coalitions in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Northern Cape, and the chronic instability of municipal coalitions. The authors argue that while coalitions can broaden representation and introduce checks and balances, South Africa's current reliance on informal, non-binding agreements leads to gridlock and a reliance on courts for dispute resolution. The paper recommends formalizing coalition pacts, limiting motions of no confidence, and establishing transparent monitoring mechanisms to restore public trust.

• The 2024 elections marked the end of the African National Congress (ANC) era of dominant-party rule, leading to a 10-party Government of National Unity (GNU) and several provincial coalitions. This shift is driven by a fragmented electorate, with ANC support falling from 62.65% in 1994 to 40.2% in 2024.
• Coalition governance in South Africa is currently characterized by fragility due to a lack of formal, binding power-sharing agreements. The GNU relies on a non-binding 'Statement of Intent', and municipal coalitions often operate without any formal agreements, leading to a reliance on the judiciary to resolve internal conflicts.
• Small 'kingmaker' parties often wield disproportionate influence in coalition negotiations. Examples include the National Freedom Party (NFP) in KwaZulu-Natal and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) in the Northern Cape, the latter of which reportedly secured a commitment regarding the self-determination of Orania in exchange for support.
• Municipal coalitions, particularly in metropolitan areas like Johannesburg, have been marked by extreme instability, revolving leadership, and poor service delivery. In contrast, Cape Town is cited as a successful example where a DA-led coalition stabilized governance and eventually led to an outright majority in 2011.
• Current legislative proposals to stabilize coalitions focus on three main areas: extending the time allowed for coalition formation (from 14 to 30 days), limiting the frequency of motions of no confidence to prevent leadership churn, and introducing electoral thresholds to reduce party fragmentation.
• The authors propose a 'transparency-first' approach to reform, suggesting the publication of detailed coalition pacts, clear procedural guidelines for dispute resolution, and the creation of a public 'Coalition Tracker' to monitor progress against delivery targets.

APA

von Treskow, F., Bosman-Burnett, I., & Gruzd, S. (2026). Coalition Politics, Democratic Accountability and the Potential for Reform in Post-Majority South Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SAIIA_OP_365_CoalitionPoliticsDemocraticAccountability.pdf

Chicago

von Treskow, Friedrich, Isabel Bosman-Burnett, and Steven Gruzd. Coalition Politics, Democratic Accountability and the Potential for Reform in Post-Majority South Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2026. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SAIIA_OP_365_CoalitionPoliticsDemocraticAccountability.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=von Treskow |first1=Friedrich |last2=Bosman-Burnett |first2=Isabel |last3=Gruzd |first3=Steven |title=Coalition Politics, Democratic Accountability and the Potential for Reform in Post-Majority South Africa |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=March 2026 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SAIIA_OP_365_CoalitionPoliticsDemocraticAccountability.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vontreskow2026coalition, author = {von Treskow, Friedrich and Bosman-Burnett, Isabel and Gruzd, Steven}, title = {{Coalition Politics, Democratic Accountability and the Potential for Reform in Post-Majority South Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SAIIA_OP_365_CoalitionPoliticsDemocraticAccountability.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }