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The report examines how risk mitigation and transfer (RMT) instruments, such as political risk insurance and guarantees from development finance institutions (DFIs), help utility-scale renewable energy projects reach financial close in West and Central Africa. While these tools are critical for addressing offtaker and political risks, the authors argue they are insufficient to overcome structural macroeconomic barriers, including high sovereign debt and insolvent state-owned utilities. The report highlights innovative models, such as the re-deployable modular solar solution in Cameroon and the use of viable businesses as anchor loads in Ghana, as potential pathways for deployment in high-debt contexts.

Ghana's December 2024 elections are occurring during a period of extreme economic distress and high political tension. The race is primarily between the NPP's Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and the NDC's John Dramani Mahama. Public trust in the Electoral Commission and the judiciary is low, and the NDC has previously threatened to boycott the courts if the results are unfavourable. The country faces risks of election-related violence, particularly in the North, and the outcome is seen as a critical test for democratic resilience in West Africa.

The LoCAL+ programme aims to increase the climate resilience of approximately 3.49 million people across 85 local governments in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Niger. The initiative combines a performance-based climate resilience grant (PBCRG) system for public investments with Blended Finance Facilities to support local SMEs and producers' organisations. The programme focuses on seven key intervention areas: climate-adapted agriculture, forestry and ecosystem conservation, agroforestry, water and health, energy efficiencies and renewables, climate-resilient infrastructure, and coastal areas in Ivory Coast. It is implemented by the West African Development Bank (BOAD) as the Accredited Entity, with UNCDF as an implementing partner and various national agencies as executing entities.

The document examines the resurgence of military coups in Africa since 2020 and the fragmented reactions of BRICS nations. It argues that while Russia engages in 'coup protection schemes' and China maintains a 'non-interventionist policy' to secure economic interests, India, Brazil, and South Africa have taken more muted or supportive stances toward constitutional order. This lack of unity suggests BRICS operates as a 'house of cards' with disaggregated interests, potentially limiting its ability to effectively challenge US and European influence in Africa.

The report analyzes the complex landscape of African migration governance, highlighting the role of the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in promoting free movement and regional integration. It identifies significant gaps between the adoption of policy frameworks—such as the 1991 Abuja Treaty and the 2018 Free Movement Protocol—and their actual implementation. The document emphasizes the growing impact of climate change as a driver of mobility and the risks posed by the increasing use of immigration detention. It concludes that while subregional progress exists, overlapping memberships in RECs and a lack of compliance monitoring hinder the achievement of a borderless continent.

The AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol (AfCFTA DTP), adopted in February 2024, establishes a comprehensive framework to integrate digital trade across Africa. The protocol covers 52 articles across 11 parts, addressing market access, data governance, digital inclusion, and trade facilitation. While it aims to unlock significant economic potential—with Africa's digital economy potentially reaching USD 712 billion by 2050—its success depends on the completion of eight ongoing annex negotiations and the ability of state parties to overcome infrastructure gaps and regulatory fragmentation. Key features include a focus on digital inclusion for MSMEs and the establishment of trust frameworks for cybersecurity and data protection, though some critics argue its data flow provisions may favor foreign big tech companies over local technology transfer.

The report assesses gender dynamics and climate vulnerabilities in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Niger. It identifies a consistent gap between national gender policies and real-world implementation, noting that women are often framed as victims rather than active agents of adaptation. Key challenges include limited access to land, finance, and education, alongside high rates of gender-based violence. The document recommends institutionalizing local gender assessments, ensuring women's representation in project design, and using gender-disaggregated data to guide the LoCAL+ programme's investments in climate resilience.

The document explores the 'climate-crime nexus,' detailing how environmental stresses drive rural petty crime, urban violence, drug use, gender-based violence, hate crimes, trafficking, and white-collar crime. It highlights how climate-induced economic collapse and extreme heat increase desperation and aggression, while the green transition creates new opportunities for organized crime and corruption.

The report finds that while climate finance in Africa grew by 48% to USD 43.7 billion in 2021/22, it remains severely insufficient, meeting only 23% of the annual needs required for NDC implementation. Public finance dominates the landscape, providing 82% of total flows, while private finance is heavily concentrated in energy systems and a small number of countries. The document highlights a critical 'trilemma' where climate-vulnerable countries are also debt-distressed and conflict-affected, further hindering their ability to attract investment. Key recommendations include scaling the use of guarantees, improving domestic capital market regulations, and enhancing the transparency and equity of voluntary carbon markets.

The report finds that international concessional climate finance grew by 50% from 2019 to reach USD 81 billion in 2022, though it remains small compared to fossil fuel subsidies. Sub-Saharan Africa is the primary recipient of these flows. The analysis highlights a gap in adaptation finance and a lack of standardized impact metrics. Domestic concessional finance is heavily concentrated in high-income economies, particularly Western Europe, and focuses primarily on mitigation. The report recommends redirecting fossil fuel subsidies, targeting fragile and conflict-affected states, and streamlining project approval processes to enhance efficiency.

The AfCFTA Protocol on Digital Trade, adopted in February 2024, aims to create a comprehensive regulatory framework to facilitate digital commerce across Africa. It covers 52 articles across 11 sections, addressing market access, data governance, and digital inclusion. While it mirrors advanced global models like the CPTPP, it includes specific provisions for digital inclusion and capacity building to support Least Developed Countries. However, its success depends on overcoming significant infrastructure gaps, regulatory fragmentation, and the completion of eight pending annexes.

The AfCFTA Protocol on Digital Trade (DTP), adopted in February 2024, establishes a comprehensive framework to facilitate digital trade across Africa through 52 articles covering market access, data governance, and digital inclusion. While it aims to unlock a digital economy potentially worth USD 712 billion by 2050, its success depends on the finalization of eight pending annexes and the ability of member states to overcome significant infrastructure gaps and regulatory fragmentation. The protocol emphasizes digital inclusion and capacity building, though critics argue its data flow and source code provisions may favor large tech firms over local technology transfer.

The document argues that while WTO rules provide significant policy space for LDCs to invest in agriculture through the 'Green Box' and 'Development Box', the primary barrier to increasing agricultural productivity is a lack of fiscal space rather than regulatory constraints. It suggests that new WTO rules should focus on reducing trade-distorting 'Amber Box' subsidies in developed and large developing countries to make LDC agriculture more competitive and attractive to private investors. Additionally, it recommends improving LDC market access by simplifying sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT) measures and expanding duty-free market access for key agricultural exports.

The document argues that while WTO rules provide significant policy space for LDCs to invest in agriculture through 'Green Box' and 'Development' categories, these countries are primarily constrained by fiscal limitations rather than trade rules. It suggests that food security in LDCs can be improved by reducing trade-distorting 'Amber Box' subsidies in developed nations for key products like cotton and rice, and by easing non-tariff barriers and import duties to stimulate LDC exports.

The document examines the role of migrant remittances as a resilient financial flow to Africa, highlighting their potential to bypass bureaucratic barriers in climate adaptation. It notes that while remittances reached US$100.1 billion in 2022, high transaction costs and low climate literacy hinder their effectiveness. The brief recommends lowering remittance costs, enhancing diaspora engagement through mechanisms like diaspora bonds, and improving climate literacy to empower local communities in building resilience.

CPI has introduced a bespoke taxonomy and machine learning model to better capture private sector adaptation finance, increasing the annual average tracked flows from USD 1 billion to USD 4.7 billion for the 2019-2022 period. The analysis identifies significant gaps in reporting, particularly among insurers and pension funds, while highlighting that the majority of project-level private investment is concentrated in the water and sanitation sector. The report also estimates that annual consumer and household spending on high-adaptation-likelihood products ranges between USD 48 billion and USD 61 billion.

The Sahel region is experiencing a major geopolitical shift as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and severed ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This move reflects deep-seated anti-French and anti-EU sentiment, driven by perceptions of neo-colonialism and a focus on security and migration over socio-economic development. As the EU's influence wanes, Russia has expanded its presence through military cooperation and strategic economic interests, including potential control over Niger's uranium. The author argues that the EU and ECOWAS must move away from punitive sanctions and colonial-era approaches toward equal partnerships and dialogue to maintain stability and influence in the region.

The research paper examines the role of vertical industrial policies in Africa, contrasting them with horizontal policies and global value chain (GVC) theories. It highlights how Nigeria and Morocco successfully developed their cement sectors through targeted government interventions, while noting that replicating these specific tools in other sectors, such as sugar and tomato paste in Nigeria, has failed due to different raw material coordination needs.

The report analyzes seven categories of enclosure-based and open measurement methods for greenhouse gas emissions in sanitation systems. It finds that while enclosure-based methods like flux chambers are widely used, they are limited by scale. Emerging optical and remote sensing methods offer broader coverage but are constrained by high costs. The document highlights a critical lack of empirical data for non-sewered sanitation in low- and middle-income countries and advocates for standardized, affordable methodologies and increased collaboration to improve national greenhouse gas inventories.

The report evaluates a proposed land restoration project in Burkina Faso using nature-based infrastructure (NBI) to address severe land degradation and climate-driven displacement. The analysis finds that NBI outperforms grey infrastructure, offering a return of USD 14.8 in benefits for every USD 1 invested, while providing significant carbon storage and reducing conflict by stabilizing rural livelihoods.