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COP30 in Belém, Brazil, is positioned as a critical inflection point for the global climate regime, occurring ten years after the Paris Agreement. The briefing highlights a tension between the summit's goals and local environmental degradation, such as the construction of the Avenida Liberdade expressway through a rainforest protection area and Brazil's pursuit of oil exploration in the Equatorial Margin. Key negotiation priorities include updated NDCs, the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, and a new collective quantified goal for climate finance estimated at USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035. The document also underscores the influence of non-state actors, such as YOUNGO and the Women and Gender Constituency, and argues that recent advisory opinions from the ICJ and IACHR have transformed climate action from a political choice into a binding legal responsibility for states.

The document details the three main priorities for COP30 in Belém: closing the ambition gap for 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to limit warming to 1.5ºC, mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually for developing countries by 2035, and concluding the global adaptation indicators program. It also highlights the launch of the Tropical Forest Forever Fund (TFFF) led by Brazil to protect forests through innovative financing, and a broader global action agenda focusing on renewable energy, just transition, and urban resilience.

The statement calls for COP30 in Belem to establish an action plan for a just transition to 100% renewable energy, specifically targeting the reform of multilateral development banks (MDBs). It argues that current MDB models prioritise private profit and increase debt in the Global South, citing examples of harmful green hydrogen and hydropower projects. The authors propose three shifts: an immediate end to fossil fuel and 'false solution' finance, the provision of grants instead of debt-creating instruments, and a move toward small-scale, community-owned renewable energy projects to ensure energy sovereignty.

This synthesis report discusses the role of South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency in advancing the 'just transition' agenda, building upon a Ministerial Statement from October 2024 that emphasizes structural actions in national economies and the international financial system to scale up climate action.

The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) has launched with an initial $5 billion to reward countries and Indigenous communities for forest protection, with a long-term goal of reaching $125 billion to generate $4 billion in annual funding. Additionally, the Forest and Land Tenure Pledge secured $1.8 billion from four governments and various foundations to support Indigenous land protection. In Indonesia, the government committed to quadrupling the recognition of Indigenous lands to 1.4 million hectares of customary forests. Despite these gains, the document notes that nature receives less than 3% of total climate finance, despite representing 37% of the climate solution.

Clean Air Task Force (CATF) outlines its priorities for COP30, advocating for 'pragmatic climate action' that integrates decarbonization with socioeconomic development. The statement highlights a disconnect between African nations' climate commitments and their development plans, while urging immediate action on methane emissions from agriculture, fossil fuels, and waste. CATF promotes a diverse technology suite, including nuclear and geothermal energy, to ensure energy security and economic viability across different regional contexts.

The report finds that while total emissions from 25 major emitters may peak by 2026, current policies are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Fifteen countries are likely on track to meet their 2030 unconditional NDC targets, while nine are off track, including the US, UK, and Japan. Projections for the US have worsened due to policy rollbacks, and eight countries are already projected to miss their 2035 unconditional NDC targets.

The document outlines three positive framing strategies for COP30: highlighting the unstoppable momentum of renewable energy, depicting a cleaner and fairer future for children, and emphasizing the protection of natural environments. It advises against using politicized or intangible terms like 'net-zero' and 'growth', suggesting instead a focus on tangible benefits such as job creation, cheaper energy bills, and cleaner air. The guide also provides specific UK-based case studies and public opinion statistics to support these narratives.

The World Resources Institute argues that COP30 must move beyond pledges to implementation by establishing a global roadmap for ambition, accelerating sectoral action for 2030 goals, and mobilizing long-term net-zero strategies. It emphasizes the need for G20 leadership in aligning near-term goals with long-term transitions and calls for a credible finance package, including the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap and country platforms, to unlock capital for developing nations.

The report examines how Brazil's agribusiness sector, despite being the country's largest climate polluter, maintains a privileged position through lobbying and 'corporate capture'. It highlights the omission of agricultural methane from Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and warns that industry-led efforts at COP30, such as the 'AgriZone', aim to position the sector as a climate solution while resisting meaningful regulation.

The report identifies 30 international financial mechanisms for tropical forests, totaling US$ 25.9 billion in planned, issued, and disbursed funds. It highlights a significant funding gap, noting that current flows are far below the US$ 66.8 billion annually needed by 2030. The analysis reveals that while conservation is the most common focus, restoration offers higher potential for private and blended finance. The report also notes that nearly half of the mapped mechanisms are globally accessible, but access remains concentrated in Latin America, particularly Brazil and Guyana, leaving other high-potential countries underserved.

Carbon Market Watch warns that carbon markets are being promoted as a 'cure-all' for the climate crisis, which risks camouflaging climate inaction. The organization asserts that these markets are riddled with systemic flaws, often violate human rights, and cannot replace the scale of climate finance required for developing countries. It calls for COP30 to prioritize rapid, substantial emissions cuts over the use of carbon credits for offsetting.

RMI highlights the transition from climate commitments to action across several global regions. China is leading in renewable deployment and clean tech exports, while Brazil focuses on low-carbon shipping and ambitious NDCs as the COP30 host. India is pursuing energy independence by 2047 through clean mobility and cooling innovations. Southeast Asia is scaling clean infrastructure and battery storage, and the United States continues to see subnational progress in grid optimization and clean industrialization despite federal delegation concerns.

The World Resources Institute outlines a seven-part framework to move intergovernmental climate coalitions from symbolic announcements to measurable impact. The guide emphasizes the need for clear purposes, actionable goals, diverse leadership—particularly from the Global South—and robust institutional structures like secretariats. It argues that without systematic monitoring and the integration of goals into national policies, the growing number of climate pledges risks duplication and dilution rather than systemic delivery.

The statement asserts that climate change is a justice issue, as historically wealthy industrialized nations caused the crisis while disadvantaged communities in the Global South suffer disproportionately. It argues that 'communication and information deficits'—such as limited media access and a lack of public interest journalism—prevent the knowledge of affected communities from reaching policymakers. To address this, the World Association for Christian Communication (WACC) proposes several measures, including promoting ICT access for Indigenous groups and supporting the sharing of traditional ecological knowledge, which it will present at COP30.

The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) is an international framework designed to set measurable targets and indicators for climate adaptation. While an overarching framework was agreed upon in 2023, approximately 100 draft indicators are set for negotiation at COP30 in Belém to move beyond vague pledges toward quantifiable progress. Adaptation remains critically underfinanced, with developing countries' annual needs estimated between USD 310 and 365 billion, far exceeding current flows. Despite this gap, research indicates high returns on investment, with some estimates suggesting every dollar spent on resilience can generate over ten dollars in benefits over a decade.

The report finds that 73% of Poles are worried about climate change and 74% believe it will negatively impact future generations. Despite this, there is a growing 'I don't know' group (plemię nie wiem) regarding government action, which the authors attribute to a lack of political advocacy and the polarization of topics like wind energy. While some negative sentiment spiked following protests against the EU Green Deal, overall support for climate policy remains high, and no significant public opposition to environmental action was found across multiple surveys.

The July 2025 ICJ Advisory Opinion affirms that states have a legal obligation to prevent significant environmental damage and provide financial support to developing countries, a duty embedded in customary international law. The brief argues that this ruling provides a legal foundation for reparative justice—including restitution and compensation—and reinforces the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). It highlights that while the Baku to Belém (B2B) Roadmap aims for US$1.3 trillion annually by 2035, it currently lacks binding targets and transparency. The document urges that COP30 use the ruling to ensure developed countries lead in delivering at least US$300 billion per year by 2035, primarily through grants and concessional resources, to support ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Global Goal on Adaptation.

The report examines methane emissions from Brazil's waste sector, which accounts for 15% of the country's methane emissions. It identifies significant infrastructure gaps, such as the continued operation of approximately 2,000 inadequate disposal sites and a low organic waste recovery rate of 1%. While Brazil has a comprehensive regulatory framework, including the National Solid Waste Policy (PNRS) and the 'Fuel of the Future' law, implementation is hindered by financial constraints and a lack of technical capacity at the municipal level. The report recommends expanding composting, anaerobic digestion, and landfill gas capture to meet Paris Agreement commitments and the targets of the National Solid Waste Plan (PLANARES).

The report examines how Brazil's powerful agribusiness sector uses greenwashing and political lobbying to avoid climate regulation, specifically regarding methane emissions, as the country prepares to host COP30. It highlights the contradiction between Brazil's global climate leadership goals and the exclusion of agricultural methane from its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The document details corporate efforts to shape the COP30 agenda through the 'AgriZone' and media partnerships, while criticizing structural weaknesses in the Brazilian Climate Plan, such as the exclusion of agriculture from the Emissions Trading System and the inefficiency of the ABC+ Plan. It concludes that the livestock industry's influence threatens the effectiveness of Brazil's climate commitments and the broader goals of the Paris Agreement.