The ICJ Advisory Opinion: Shaping a New Trajectory in Climate Finance, Policy and Action

This policy brief by the African Future Policies Hub analyzes the implications of the July 2025 International Court of Justice (ICJ) Advisory Opinion on the Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change. The document argues that the ruling provides a legal and moral foundation to demand scaled-up climate finance, emphasizing the principles of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) and the necessity of reparations. It specifically links the ruling to the Baku to Belém (B2B) Roadmap and the financing of the third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) leading up to COP30.

• The ICJ Advisory Opinion affirms that states have a legal obligation to prevent significant environmental damage and must act with due diligence to curb climate change. The ruling specifies that states breaching these obligations may be required to provide full reparation, including compensation for loss and damage, and that fossil fuel production, consumption, and subsidies may be considered internationally wrongful acts.
• The ICJ established specific findings regarding climate finance, stating that the duty to provide financial support to developing countries is embedded in customary international law and treaty law. This means the obligation applies even to states that have exited the Paris Agreement. While no specific dollar amount was set, the Court ruled that finance must be provided at a level that allows for the achievement of the goals in Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, including the 1.5 degree temperature goal.
• The document identifies significant gaps in current climate finance, noting that the US$100 billion pledge from the 2009 Copenhagen Accord and 2010 Cancun Agreements has not been fully met. It cites Global Stocktake (GST) estimates that developing countries need between US$5.8 trillion and US$5.9 trillion pre-2030, with adaptation needs alone ranging from US$215 billion to US$387 billion annually through 2030.
• The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) includes two primary finance decisions: scaling up total financing for developing countries from all sources to at least US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035, and a specific goal for developed countries to lead by delivering at least US$300 billion per year by 2035.
• The Baku to Belém (B2B) Roadmap is criticized for providing little scope for binding targets or interim milestones and containing transparency and accountability gaps. The brief argues that the ICJ ruling should serve as the foundation for this roadmap to ensure that the mobilization of finance aligns with the obligations of the Paris Agreement.
• The ICJ ruling is expected to influence the financing of the third generation of NDCs post-COP30 by reinforcing that developed countries—rather than a general category of 'all actors'—must take the lead. It provides a legal basis for prioritizing grant-based finance, technology transfer, and the operationalization of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD).

APA

Kaluba, D. (2025). The ICJ Advisory Opinion: Shaping a New Trajectory in Climate Finance, Policy and Action. African Future Policies Hub. https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/8ddab85b-df47-4580-819e-fa72ad00de73/FINAL%20v5.1%20-%20COP30%20Finance%20Brief%20on%20the%20ICJ%20Ad.pdf?ver=1780902965461

Chicago

Kaluba, David. The ICJ Advisory Opinion: Shaping a New Trajectory in Climate Finance, Policy and Action. African Future Policies Hub, 2025. https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/8ddab85b-df47-4580-819e-fa72ad00de73/FINAL%20v5.1%20-%20COP30%20Finance%20Brief%20on%20the%20ICJ%20Ad.pdf?ver=1780902965461.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kaluba |first1=David |title=The ICJ Advisory Opinion: Shaping a New Trajectory in Climate Finance, Policy and Action |publisher=African Future Policies Hub |date=November 2025 |url=https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/8ddab85b-df47-4580-819e-fa72ad00de73/FINAL%20v5.1%20-%20COP30%20Finance%20Brief%20on%20the%20ICJ%20Ad.pdf?ver=1780902965461 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kaluba2025icj, author = {Kaluba, David}, title = {{The ICJ Advisory Opinion: Shaping a New Trajectory in Climate Finance, Policy and Action}}, institution = {African Future Policies Hub}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/8ddab85b-df47-4580-819e-fa72ad00de73/FINAL%20v5.1%20-%20COP30%20Finance%20Brief%20on%20the%20ICJ%20Ad.pdf?ver=1780902965461}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }