Search Climate Insights Directory

The document analyzes the stalled negotiations of the SADC EPA, focusing on export taxes, the Most Favored Nation clause, agricultural safeguards, and rules of origin. It argues that the EU should make strategic concessions on these points to avoid straining diplomatic relations and to support African industrialization.

The document examines the relationship between mining and development in Africa, using South Africa as a primary case study. It argues that the 'resource curse' is not deterministic and that the quality of development depends on the strength and nature of a country's institutions. In South Africa, the author identifies failures in policy stability, legislative clarity, and labour relations as key barriers to growth. The briefing recommends that African governments prioritize legislative clarity over executive discretion, integrate labour and mining policies through mechanisms like profit-sharing, and build trust between the state, business, and labour to ensure sustainable economic diversification.

The document examines South Africa's reactive approach to Swaziland's absolute monarchy, highlighting the tension between South Africa's democratic values and its economic interests. It analyzes the role of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the personal relationship between President Jacob Zuma and King Mswati III, concluding that while South Africa possesses significant economic leverage, it has been reluctant to apply it due to concerns over regional stability, commercial interests, and diplomatic norms of non-interference.

The report establishes a framework for evaluating the financial viability of power sectors through four key criteria: cost recovery, ability to meet demand, investment capacity, and adherence to social and environmental norms. It details specific metrics such as Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), system losses, and the 'price-gap approach' for measuring subsidies. The analysis highlights global variances, noting that 82% of 87 analyzed countries provided electricity subsidies in 2011 and that power outages cause significant economic losses, averaging 19% of annual sales for affected firms. The framework also emphasizes the tension between achieving full cost recovery and maintaining affordability for low-income households, particularly in African nations.

The document argues that internal armed conflict acts as 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where low development leads to war, which further degrades socio-economic conditions. Research by PRIO indicates that conflict detrimentally affects most MDG indicators, including GDP per capita, infant mortality, and access to potable water. Notably, the indirect effects of conflict—such as the destruction of health infrastructure and diversion of resources to military spending—can be as severe as direct battlefield casualties. The authors advocate for the UN General Assembly to make conflict reduction an explicit goal in the post-2015 development agenda to break this cycle.

The report examines the five-year campaign by the Save Mapungubwe Coalition to protect the Mapungubwe World Heritage Site from the Vele Colliery project operated by Coal of Africa (CoAL). It analyzes three primary engagement strategies: strategic litigation to challenge mining licenses, bilateral negotiations to establish best-practice environmental standards, and multilateral participation in the Vele Colliery Environmental Management Committee (EMC). The document concludes that while litigation and negotiations have limitations, they provide essential leverage, and that inclusive multi-stakeholder governance via EMCs can effectively monitor corporate compliance. It also highlights the correlation between CoAL's non-compliance with environmental laws and the decline of its JSE share price.

The document identifies three primary pressure points affecting South Africa's mining outlook: a negative macroeconomic environment characterized by currency volatility and regulatory uncertainty, structural gaps in infrastructure and skills, and the need to better leverage existing strengths such as reserve size and financial services. It warns that internal instability and global headwinds, including slowing demand from China, are eroding South Africa's competitive edge relative to other sub-Saharan African nations and mature mining jurisdictions.

The paper examines the tension between 'positive' and 'negative' governance values in Africa. While the African Union has established comprehensive frameworks like the APRM and ACDEG to promote transparency, accountability, and human rights, the author argues that a lack of political will and moral leadership hinders their implementation. The document highlights persistent issues such as systemic corruption, political clientelism, the marginalisation of women, and electoral manipulation, while noting that a small group of countries has made significant progress toward democratic governance.

The document examines the potential for low-carbon technologies to address energy poverty in Africa, highlighting that while grid expansion is suitable for urban areas and some rural zones, off-grid and mini-grid renewables are increasingly viable for remote regions. It identifies significant barriers to adoption, including high upfront capital costs, lack of local technical capacity, and the political influence of fossil fuel reserves. Using Morocco's rural electrification programme as a success story, the briefing argues that low-carbon options must be integrated into broader development objectives—such as job creation for youth, health improvements from reduced air pollution, and national energy self-sufficiency—to become politically and economically competitive.

The document examines the intersection of G-20 financial regulatory initiatives and African economic development. It identifies five key G-20 focus areas—financial stability, financial inclusion, local currency bond markets, agricultural finance, and trade finance—and assesses the mechanisms through which non-member African states can influence these global standards. While acknowledging that the G-20 recognizes the needs of developing countries, the author argues that African representation remains limited and that the adoption of international standards like Basel II/III must be sequenced to align with local developmental goals.

The document analyzes the decline of South Africa's mining sector, linking it to labour market inefficiency and a dysfunctional institutional framework. It argues that the current legal and political environment encourages a 'prisoners' dilemma' between mining houses and unions, where mutual defection (wildcat strikes) becomes the dominant strategy. The author suggests that democratizing labour relations through balloting and introducing credible third-party penalties for violence could transform this into an 'assurance game' that promotes long-term industry sustainability.

The document examines the political, economic, and scientific ties between Russia and South Africa, noting a significant imbalance where political coordination is strong but economic and civil society linkages remain underdeveloped. While bilateral trade grew from $138.1 million in 2002 to nearly $1 billion in 2012, the authors argue that the relationship is hindered by a lack of mutual knowledge and limited cultural exchange. Key areas of cooperation include mineral resources, nuclear energy, and aviation, culminating in the March 2013 Joint Declaration on the establishment of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) argues that the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Amendment Bill 2013 requires greater transparency and less ministerial discretion to attract investment and ensure sustainable development. Drawing on Botswana's success, SAIIA recommends against replacing the 'first-in, first-assessed' licensing system with auctions without better geoscience data, suggests introducing 'retention licences' to secure tenure, and advises against the state acting as both regulator and operator through free carried interests. The submission highlights that Botswana's high ranking in the Fraser Institute Survey is due to institutional quality and predictable legislation, contrasting this with South Africa's regulatory uncertainty.

The document argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the sole direct cause of conflict, it acts as a 'threat multiplier' that intersects with poor political governance and socio-economic vulnerabilities to increase the risk of violence. In the Zambezi basin, this manifests as competition over dwindling water and food supplies, migration-induced tensions, and the manipulation of resource scarcity by political elites. Case studies of Bulawayo and Chinde highlight how chronic water shortages, flooding, and political marginalisation create flashpoints for unrest. The author emphasizes that strengthening Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) and community resilience through grassroots organisations and traditional governance can mitigate these risks.

The document examines Russia's strategic return to Africa after a period of decline in the 1990s. It details the transition from Soviet-era ideological support to a modern, pragmatic approach focused on natural resources, arms trade, and diplomatic influence. The analysis highlights the role of the BRICS framework, particularly South Africa's membership, as a catalyst for renewed engagement. While Russia has established diplomatic ties with all African nations and increased investments in mining and energy, the paper notes a gap between high-level agreements and practical implementation, as well as a continued disparity in attention between North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa.

The document analyzes the shift from traditional official development assistance (ODA) and commercial bank lending toward alternative financing for infrastructure in Africa. It highlights the role of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), blending finance, and institutional investors like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. A significant portion of the text focuses on the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan (RIDMP), which requires an estimated $500 billion in capital, and the systemic challenges facing the region, including underdeveloped financial markets and high utility tariffs.

The case study examines the disconnect between regional water management agendas in SADC and the national development priorities of member states. It argues that traditional donors have prioritised environmental conservation and river basin organisations over the large-scale infrastructure needed for hydropower and irrigation. This has led to 'economic water scarcity' where resources exist but lack the funding for development. The author notes a shift in this dynamic due to the emergence of China and Brazil as financiers for public infrastructure, which aligns more closely with national development goals.

The case study examines the implementation of REDD+ within the SADC region, highlighting the tension between global carbon sequestration goals and regional needs for sustainable development. It details the SADC FANR Directorate's efforts to provide a 'regional value add' through a support programme, specifically focusing on a measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) project funded by GIZ. The analysis emphasizes that while carbon is the primary global driver, local and regional benefits—such as hydrological services and non-timber forest products—are often more critical to the region's population. The document concludes that SADC's approach to REDD+ pilots balances carbon effectiveness with regional equity to avoid marginalizing countries with lower forest cover.

The document examines the establishment of Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs) in Southern Africa, highlighting their role in protecting regional public goods and fostering integration. It identifies the Peace Parks Foundation (PPF) and SADC as key drivers, while noting significant barriers such as rhino poaching, livestock disease concerns, and sovereignty issues. The study concludes that successful implementation relies on a combination of high-level political leadership and ground-level collaboration among officials and local communities.

The document examines the evolution of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) from a cooperative pool to a competitive regional electricity market (REM). It highlights the role of the SADC Energy Protocol and the integration of independent power producers (IPPs) and renewable energy sources (RES), using South Africa's REIPPPP as a primary example of private sector participation. The analysis identifies significant challenges, including the lack of political will among member states, disparities in national energy policies, and infrastructure deficits, while noting the potential for regional integration through shared hydropower and thermal resources.