Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict

The document argues that internal armed conflict acts as 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where low development leads to war, which further degrades socio-economic conditions. Research by PRIO indicates that conflict detrimentally affects most MDG indicators, including GDP per capita, infant mortality, and access to potable water. Notably, the indirect effects of conflict—such as the destruction of health infrastructure and diversion of resources to military spending—can be as severe as direct battlefield casualties. The authors advocate for the UN General Assembly to make conflict reduction an explicit goal in the post-2015 development agenda to break this cycle.

• Internal armed conflict has a detrimental effect on the majority of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) indicators, including undernourishment, poverty headcount, life expectancy, GDP per capita, primary school enrollment, infant mortality, and access to potable water.
• The indirect consequences of conflict, such as increased exposure to disease and the destruction of health infrastructure, can be as significant as direct deaths. For infant mortality, the indirect effects typically result in surplus deaths on a par with direct casualties.
• A conflict of median severity—defined as 2,500 battle deaths over five years—is associated with a 15% decrease in GDP per capita and a 10% increase in infant mortality.
• The economic damage from conflict persists long after the fighting ends. Even with recovery growth, a median conflict country remains approximately 10% below the growth trajectory it would have followed had the conflict not occurred.
• Conflict in neighboring countries negatively impacts education; a neighbor experiencing five years of minor conflict is associated with an average reduction in educational attainment of 1.3%, which equates to a loss of 3–4 years of education for an individual.
• Conflict creates a 'conflict trap,' a vicious cycle where low socio-economic development facilitates the outbreak of conflict, and the resulting conflict further lowers development levels, making the total cost higher than direct estimates.

APA

Gates, S., Hegre, H., Nygård, H. M., & Strand, H. (2014). Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ff919045-f18d-4e54-8e3c-ce4af474e4fa/Gates Hegre Nygård and Strand - Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict Conflict Trends 3-2014.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Gates, Scott, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Håvard Strand. Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2014. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ff919045-f18d-4e54-8e3c-ce4af474e4fa/Gates Hegre Nygård and Strand - Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict Conflict Trends 3-2014.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gates |first1=Scott |last2=Hegre |first2=Håvard |last3=Nygård |first3=Håvard Mokleiv |last4=Strand |first4=Håvard |title=Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=March 2014 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ff919045-f18d-4e54-8e3c-ce4af474e4fa/Gates Hegre Nygård and Strand - Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict Conflict Trends 3-2014.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gates2014development, author = {Gates, Scott and Hegre, Håvard and Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv and Strand, Håvard}, title = {{Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2014}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ff919045-f18d-4e54-8e3c-ce4af474e4fa/Gates Hegre Nygård and Strand - Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict Conflict Trends 3-2014.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }