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Critical Minerals Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document analyzes the surging demand for critical minerals driven by the energy transition, the environmental impacts of mining, and the strategic trade policies developing countries can employ to add value to their mineral resources while ensuring climate resilience.
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Document type: Briefing
U.S. Tariffs Hit Latin America Hard—China's Policy Response May Matter Even More
U.S. tariffs have created a mixed impact across Latin America, with Mexico and Central American countries facing the highest effective tariff rates due to their export profiles and reliance on the U.S. market. However, the authors argue that South American nations are more vulnerable to indirect spillovers from China, which is now the primary trading partner for most of the subregion. A slowdown in Chinese demand for minerals, metals, and energy products, driven by high U.S. tariffs on China, could depress regional growth and commodity prices if China fails to implement effective countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies.
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Document type: Research paper
Criminal networks linked to illegal gold mining in the Brazilian Amazon
The document details how illegal gold mining in the Brazilian Amazon is sustained by a complex network of corrupt politicians, logistics providers, and international smuggling routes for mercury and aviation fuel. It highlights a systemic failure of Brazilian regulatory agencies to coordinate efforts, leading to significant gold exports lacking proper documentation. The report also establishes strong links between illegal mining and other serious crimes, including drug trafficking by organizations like the First Capital Command (PCC), forced labor, and sexual exploitation. Geographically, the illicit activity extends across borders into Guyana, French Guiana, and Venezuela, with specific hotspots identified in Roraima, Rondônia, Pará, and Amapá states.
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Document type: Fact sheet
CEO Note: Meat Industry’s Pyrrhic Victory
The CEO of Mighty Earth discusses the risks associated with JBS's listing on the New York Stock Exchange, citing a history of bribery, fraudulent climate claims, and pollution. While noting progress such as the suspension of 1,000 suppliers linked to deforestation by JBS and other Brazilian meatpackers, the author highlights ongoing failures in South American cattle companies to prohibit deforestation in the Cerrado, Pantanal, and Chiquitania ecosystems, as well as a general lack of methane pollution disclosure.
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Document type: Statement
Energy Transitions and Ecological Security Risks
The document outlines how the shift to renewable energy creates socio-ecological risks through expanded critical mineral mining and the rise of oil and gas decommissioning. It highlights environmental degradation, such as water pollution in China and orphan wells in the US, and explains how these issues can escalate into regional conflicts or local violence, as seen in Papua New Guinea. The author argues that current approaches often separate human rights from environmental impacts and recommends integrating these perspectives, increasing data transparency on site locations and health impacts, and sharing decommissioning best practices between experienced and novice nations.
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Document type: Briefing
Border crossings drop, climate pressures persist
The document argues that while US border crossings have declined due to restrictive policies, climate-driven pressures in the Americas persist. It encourages journalists to link economic migration to slow-onset climate impacts and provides resources for reporting on climate adaptation and displacement.
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Document type: Guide
Los cruces fronterizos caen pero la presión climática persiste
The document argues that while migrant crossings at the US-Mexico border have decreased due to restrictive policies, climate pressures in Central and South America persist. It encourages journalists to look beyond 'economic migration' to find the underlying climate drivers, such as crop failure and water scarcity, and to view migration as a form of climate adaptation.
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Document type: Guide
Superhot Rock Methodology Report
The report establishes a methodology for mapping superhot rock (SHR) geothermal resources globally, defining SHR as heat from subsurface formations exceeding 374°C. Using the LithoRef18 global reference model and a 'hydrothermal proxy' to account for non-steady-state heat flow, the study estimates the un-risked global resource. For depths of 4-8 km ('today's resource'), the estimated potential is 3,272 GWe (13,895 GWth). For depths of 8-12.5 km ('tomorrow's resource'), the potential increases to 59,930 GWe (245,581 GWth). The analysis identifies 125 countries with SHR potential, with significant resources in the US, China, Indonesia, and others. The report also analyzes flow rate uncertainties using a database of 33 petrothermal projects, determining a P50 flow rate of 55 l/s for its calculations.
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Document type: Report
BRICS can lead clean energy transition, but new members are where fossil fuels predominate
In 2024, fossil-powered capacity fell below half of the total electricity mix for the BRICS group, driven by renewable growth in China, India, and Brazil. However, new BRICS members—including Indonesia, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria—show a stark gap between net-zero pledges and action, currently constructing ten times more fossil fuel capacity (25 GW) than wind and utility-scale solar (2.3 GW). Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are central to this expansion, backing 62% of all power capacity under construction in new member geographies, with particularly high involvement in hydropower (93%) and coal (88%).
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Document type: Research paper
LONG-TERM ENERGY PLANNING
The PELP 2023-2027 establishes three development scenarios—Slow Recovery, Carbon Neutrality, and Accelerated Transition—to project Chile's energy needs and supply through 2060. The plan emphasizes the expansion of wind and solar photovoltaic generation, the integration of energy storage, and the phased retirement of coal-fired power plants. A key innovation is the introduction of Electric Generation Development Poles (PDGE) in the provinces of Antofagasta and Tocopilla to optimize transmission and promote renewable energy. The report also analyzes the role of green hydrogen in decarbonizing industry and transport, and assesses the resilience of the National Electric System (NES) against climate-induced hydrological and wind variability.
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Document type: Report
Strengthening national adaptation planning towards a more climate resilient society in the Plurinational State of Bolivia
The proposal seeks €2,773,855 over 36 months to develop Bolivia's first National Adaptation Plan (NAP) targeting 2035. It addresses critical barriers including weak institutional capacity, poor intersectoral coordination, and insufficient scientific evidence for adaptation. The project focuses on four priority sectors: water, forests and biodiversity, agriculture and rural development, and human health, with education as a cross-cutting theme. Key objectives include establishing a monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) system, catalyzing private sector investment, and creating a pipeline of bankable adaptation projects. Implementation will be led by the Plurinational Authority of Mother Earth (APMT) and the Ministry of Development Planning (MPD), with GIZ as the delivery partner.
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Document type: Report
Empowering Himalayan communities: Solar micro-grids for enhanced resilience in Ladakh, India
The document details how GHE leverages tourism and corporate social responsibility (CSR) funding to install decentralized solar micro-grids in remote Himalayan villages in Ladakh. These projects provide clean energy to homes, schools, and health centers, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and improving living standards. Key outcomes include the electrification of 94 villages in Ladakh, the training of over 200 women as entrepreneurs and solar technicians, and the mitigation of over 230,500 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually. The model emphasizes community ownership, where households eventually take over operations and maintenance, and integrates livelihood support through homestays and traditional handicrafts.
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Document type: Case study
A COHERENT FRAMEWORK FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: TOWARDS GLOBAL SOUTH DEBTORS’ COALITION
The document analyzes sovereign debt in the Global South as a tool of neocolonial control that perpetuates structural dependencies in food, energy, and manufacturing. It critiques existing G20 restructuring mechanisms for treating debt as a liquidity issue rather than a structural one. Drawing on the failure of the 1980s Cartagena Initiative, the authors advocate for a Global South Debtors’ Coalition to leverage collective bargaining power. This coalition would pursue 'The Bargain of the Century,' proposing that Global South nations use their strategic mineral wealth and market size to secure technology transfers from major powers like China, the US, and the EU. The paper specifically urges South Africa to use its G20 Presidency to advance this framework, linking debt justice to food sovereignty, renewable energy independence, and regional industrial policies.
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Document type: Research paper
Integrity and Trust Underpin the Democratic Digital Sphere
The document argues that communication is a fundamental human right essential for dignity and justice, rather than just a tool for progress. It critiques the current digital ecosystem for being dominated by Global North monopolies and surveillance capitalism, which marginalizes voices in the Global South. Through various case studies and reports, it advocates for a 'people-first digital ecosystem' based on public digital infrastructure, multilingual accessibility, and ethical AI governance to ensure that digital transformation expands rather than narrows human rights.
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Document type: Research paper
Reseña del estado financiero del AF 2024-2025
The document reports that as of March 31, 2025, the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research had received 78% of the approved contributions for the 2024-2025 fiscal year. While overall expenses were 10% lower than budgeted, the Executive Directorate warns that delays in voluntary contributions significantly limit its operational capacity. The report also outlines projected voluntary contributions for the next three fiscal years, with the USA providing the largest share.
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Document type: Briefing
Presupuesto operativo y Contribuciones de los países para el AF 2025-2026 y solicitud preliminar para 2026-2028
The IAI is requesting an operating budget of US$ 1.68 million for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, which remains unchanged from the previous year. Preliminary requests for subsequent years show a gradual increase, reaching US$ 1.8522 million by 2027-2028. The budget is funded by contributions from member countries, with the USA providing the largest share. The IAI reports administrative adjustments to optimize spending and a reduction in IT costs following its move to Panama.
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Document type: Briefing
Improving Climate Resilience by Increasing Water Security in the Amazon Basin Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Suriname
The programme aims to protect approximately 1.52 million direct beneficiaries and 4.15 million indirect beneficiaries in the Amazon Basin from climate-induced water insecurity. It focuses on three components: strengthening hydro-meteorological knowledge and early warning systems, catalyzing investments in climate-resilient water, sanitation, and waste (WSW) infrastructure, and enhancing regional governance and transboundary cooperation. The initiative employs a mix of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), nature-based solutions (NbS), and advanced monitoring technologies to mitigate the impacts of extreme droughts and floods.
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Document type: Report
Debt for Climate Swaps – A primer for FiCS members
The document provides a comprehensive guide to debt-for-climate (DFC) swaps, which are financial operations where public debt is cancelled, exchanged, or refinanced in return for policy commitments to invest savings into environmental conservation, mitigation, or adaptation. It distinguishes between official bilateral swaps and trilateral commercial swaps, highlighting recent large-scale examples in Ecuador, Belize, and Seychelles. The primer emphasizes that DFC swaps are most effective when limited fiscal space is the primary barrier to climate investment, rather than in cases of extreme debt distress. It also outlines the critical roles of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), Policy Development Banks (PDBs), and National Development Banks (NDBs) in providing credit enhancements, monitoring KPIs, and building government capacity.
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Document type: Guide
Shipping industry’s biofuels plan threatens rainforests, communities and climate
Trend Asia warns that integrating biofuels into the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) Global Fuel Standard would drive catastrophic environmental and social damage. The statement highlights that food- and feed-based biofuels, particularly those promoted by Brazil, are linked to land grabbing, deforestation, and life-cycle emissions that can exceed those of fossil diesel. It calls for the IMO to instead prioritize energy efficiency, wind assistance, and demand reduction to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
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Document type: Statement
Interdependencias energéticas e integración regional en la cuenca del Plata
The document examines the challenges of energy integration in the Plata Basin, noting that while interconnection infrastructure developed in the 1990s increased energy exchanges, these gains were not sustained due to disputes over volumes and regulations. It specifically highlights conflicts between Argentina and Chile, and Bolivia and Brasil, which hindered regional energy complementarity and integration processes.
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Document type: Research paper