LONG-TERM ENERGY PLANNING

The PELP 2023-2027 establishes three development scenarios—Slow Recovery, Carbon Neutrality, and Accelerated Transition—to project Chile's energy needs and supply through 2060. The plan emphasizes the expansion of wind and solar photovoltaic generation, the integration of energy storage, and the phased retirement of coal-fired power plants. A key innovation is the introduction of Electric Generation Development Poles (PDGE) in the provinces of Antofagasta and Tocopilla to optimize transmission and promote renewable energy. The report also analyzes the role of green hydrogen in decarbonizing industry and transport, and assesses the resilience of the National Electric System (NES) against climate-induced hydrological and wind variability.

• The PELP 2023-2027 defines three distinct energy scenarios: Slow Recovery, Carbon Neutrality, and Accelerated Transition, which project national energy demand growth between 24% and 28% relative to 2020 by the year 2060.
• By 2050, the generation mix in all three scenarios is projected to exceed 96% renewable sources, primarily driven by wind and solar photovoltaic energy.
• The plan introduces Electric Generation Development Poles (PDGE) to prioritize renewable energy generation and optimize transmission; the provinces of Antofagasta and Tocopilla have been identified as candidate poles.
• Coal-fired power plant retirement trajectories vary by scenario: total retirement is projected by 2040 in the Slow Recovery scenario, 2035 in the Carbon Neutrality scenario, and 2033 in the Accelerated Transition scenario.
• Green hydrogen is projected to be a significant component of the energy matrix by 2060, with a share between 8% and 19%, primarily used for road freight transport and mining motor uses.
• Transmission expansion is critical for evacuating wind energy, with identified needs for at least 3,000 MW of capacity between the Alto Jahuel and Río Malleco substations within the next 20 years.
• Energy intensity is projected to decrease across all scenarios by 2060, with reductions ranging from 28% in the Slow Recovery scenario to 36% in the Accelerated Transition scenario compared to 2020 levels.
• The report identifies a high complementarity between energy storage and solar photovoltaic technology, which is essential for supplying green hydrogen during the day and electromobility at night.
• Resilience analysis indicates that the 2030 infrastructure is capable of accommodating a 30% to 50% reduction in wind power inflows at critical nodes like Parinas 500 and PDGE-ANF-B2 by increasing LNG and reservoir hydro generation.
• The plan projects that the electrification level of the final energy consumption matrix will grow from 24% currently to between 47% and 73% by 2050, depending on the scenario.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2025). LONG-TERM ENERGY PLANNING. https://leap.sei.org/documents/Chile_PELP_2023-2027_EN.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. LONG-TERM ENERGY PLANNING. 2025. https://leap.sei.org/documents/Chile_PELP_2023-2027_EN.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=LONG-TERM ENERGY PLANNING |date=22 April 2025 |url=https://leap.sei.org/documents/Chile_PELP_2023-2027_EN.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2025longterm, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{LONG-TERM ENERGY PLANNING}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://leap.sei.org/documents/Chile_PELP_2023-2027_EN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }