Energy Transitions and Ecological Security Risks

The document outlines how the shift to renewable energy creates socio-ecological risks through expanded critical mineral mining and the rise of oil and gas decommissioning. It highlights environmental degradation, such as water pollution in China and orphan wells in the US, and explains how these issues can escalate into regional conflicts or local violence, as seen in Papua New Guinea. The author argues that current approaches often separate human rights from environmental impacts and recommends integrating these perspectives, increasing data transparency on site locations and health impacts, and sharing decommissioning best practices between experienced and novice nations.

• The transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 is expected to drive a massive increase in critical mineral demand, with the IEA estimating a sixfold increase overall, and specific rises of 90% for lithium and 60-70% for nickel and cobalt.
• Oil and gas decommissioning is increasing in complexity and volume, with the IEA predicting 2,500 to 3,000 offshore projects will require decommissioning by 2040, alongside approximately 50,000 offshore wells and 10,000 structures globally.
• Critical mineral mining causes severe environmental degradation, including biodiversity loss and pollution; for example, the use of chemicals to separate rare earth minerals for wind turbines has caused extensive water and soil pollution in Jiangxi, China.
• Inadequate decommissioning of oil and gas wells leads to 'orphan wells' that emit harmful gases like methane and benzene. In the United States, over 120,000 orphan wells are documented, with some estimates suggesting up to two million inactive, unplugged wells.
• Environmental degradation from mining can escalate into violent conflict, as demonstrated in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea, where toxic tailings from the Panguna copper mine contributed to a violent conflict from 1988 to 1998.
• Mining-induced pollution can strain international relations, such as the 2009 tension between Bolivia and Peru over Lake Titicaca, where Bolivia withdrew funding due to concerns that Peruvian mining licenses caused eutrophication and heavy metal contamination.
• Legislative gaps and company bankruptcies often leave governments and taxpayers to bear the cost of decommissioning, as seen in Australia and New Zealand, or lead to persistent pollution and displacement in regions like Ogoniland in the Niger Delta, Nigeria.
• To mitigate these risks, the author recommends integrating socio-ecological perspectives, increasing transparency regarding the location and health impacts of decommissioned sites, and sharing innovative policy solutions, such as Alberta's Licensee Liability Rating.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (2025). Energy Transitions and Ecological Security Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/06/12/energy-transitions-and-ecological-security-risks/

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Energy Transitions and Ecological Security Risks. 2025. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/06/12/energy-transitions-and-ecological-security-risks/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Energy Transitions and Ecological Security Risks |date=12 June 2025 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/06/12/energy-transitions-and-ecological-security-risks/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisks2025energy, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Energy Transitions and Ecological Security Risks}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2025/06/12/energy-transitions-and-ecological-security-risks/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }