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The report analyzes forest compensation in the MATOPIBA region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia), where agricultural expansion has led to significant deforestation. It evaluates three existing modalities—reforestation by the debtor, forest compensation credits, and cash payments—finding that current implementation often lacks technical oversight, transparency, and environmental effectiveness. To address these gaps, the authors propose four innovative mechanisms: the adoption of computerized management platforms, the use of payment for environmental services (PES), outsourcing fund management to specialized third parties, and utilizing blended finance and match funding to scale restoration projects.

The report analyzes forest replacement in Matopiba, noting that current practices often prioritize commercial timber over ecological restoration. It suggests adopting digital platforms for credit management, using Payments for Environmental Services (PSA), outsourcing fund management to specialized entities, and employing blended finance to scale restoration efforts.

A study by World Weather Attribution found that human-induced climate change significantly increased the intensity and likelihood of an early spring heat event in South America, which affected Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia. The event, occurring approximately once every 30 years in the current climate, would have been 1.4 to 4.3 °C cooler without human-caused warming. The study notes that the likelihood of such an event has increased by at least 100 times due to climate change. Future warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels is projected to make similar events five times more likely and 1.1 to 1.6 °C hotter. The researchers highlight a lack of heat action plans in the affected region, which increases vulnerability for the urban poor and ecosystems, despite the fact that adaptation can reduce morbidity and mortality.

The Low-Carbon Agriculture Transition Mechanism (LATM) is a financial structure designed to decarbonize Brazil's agricultural sector by providing small and medium-sized farmers with long-term loans, technical assistance, and a first-of-its-kind income guarantee. The mechanism targets four specific credit lines: Pasture Recovery, Sustainable Livestock Intensification, Integrated Systems, and Agroforestry and Bioeconomy. It aims to mobilize USD 115 million in total capital—combining commercial, concessional, and grant funding—to reach 78,000 hectares by 2030 and avoid or remove over 187,245 tons of CO2e per year. The implementation follows a three-phase pathway: a Pilot Phase testing components in the Amazon and Cerrado, a Commercial Phase scaling the full structure across three biomes, and a Scale-up Phase reducing dependency on concessional capital.

The report analyzes forest replacement policies in the Amazon and Cerrado, arguing that current regulations are outdated because they treat forests as biomass stocks for market supply rather than ecological systems. It highlights that while financial mechanisms like replacement fees exist, funds are rarely directed toward actual restoration. The document specifically criticizes a 2022 law in Goiás for creating exemptions that undermine environmental compensation for agribusiness.

ClientEarth has filed a legal complaint with the US National Contact Point alleging that Cargill's due diligence processes in Brazil are insufficient to prevent deforestation and human rights abuses. The complaint highlights failures in monitoring soy sourced from the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, as well as issues with indirect land use change and the displacement of Indigenous Peoples. While Cargill has committed to being deforestation-free in the Amazon and Cerrado by 2025, ClientEarth argues these policies lack necessary commitments to be 'conversion free' and fail to address the systemic risks associated with its vast operations in Brazil.

ClientEarth has filed a complaint with the OECD against Cargill, arguing that the company's due diligence fails to address deforestation and human rights abuses in Brazil. The document details specific allegations regarding the Cerrado, Amazon, and Atlantic Forest biomes, and calls for the full disclosure and implementation of effective environmental and human rights policies.

The report assesses the progress of the Brazilian Forest Code's implementation in 2022, highlighting a heterogeneous landscape where registration (CAR) is advanced but analysis and regularization (PRA) remain significant bottlenecks. While states like São Paulo and Espírito Santo show leadership in analysis, only 2% of national registries have completed analysis. The document identifies critical gaps in the registration of traditional territories and the slow adoption of the PRA, while noting that some states are integrating CAR data with deforestation alerts to enforce compliance.

The report examines the gap between soybean production distribution and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change—manifesting as severe droughts, hail, and frost—has led to unprecedented insurance claim payments. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers found that while insurance data is insufficient to predict losses in the North and Northeast regions, agricultural yield data from PAM/IBGE can effectively identify climate variables (precipitation, fire risk, and wind) that correlate with losses. The authors recommend expanding insurance supply to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA, utilizing production history for pricing in underserved areas, and strengthening the reinsurance market and public-private funds to ensure insurer liquidity.

An investigation by Mighty Earth, Repórter Brasil, and Ecostorm found that Tesco's UK meat products are linked to illegal deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The report traces soy from the Santa Ana farm in Mato Grosso, which used illegal fires to clear 400 hectares of forest in 2022, through Cargill's logistics network to UK suppliers Avara and Pilgrim's UK. The authors argue that Cargill's monitoring systems are flawed, allowing 'grain laundering' where illegal soy is mixed with legal crops. Despite public pledges to be deforestation-free by 2025, Tesco continues to source heavily from Cargill, which has a 2030 target. The report also criticizes proposed UK due diligence legislation for failing to cover 'legal' deforestation, potentially making the UK a leakage market for soy that does not meet EU standards.

The report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (Law no. 12,651/2012), focusing on the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Environmental Compliance Program (PRA). While registration in the CAR is largely consolidated, the analysis of this data remains a critical bottleneck, with only 2% of national registrations fully analyzed. The document identifies significant disparities between states, noting that a few, such as Acre, Mato Grosso, and Pará, have completed all implementation stages, while others like Pernambuco, Piauí, and Roraima have stagnated. Key challenges include institutional gaps, lack of technical resources for forest restoration, and the illegal use of CAR for land grabbing on public lands. To address these, the authors recommend a national implementation plan, strengthening the SICAR IT infrastructure, adopting dynamic analysis tools, and aligning the Forest Code with rural credit incentives and anti-deforestation policies.

The report analyzes Brazil's sustainable securitisation market, highlighting the role of Agribusiness Receivables Certificates (CRA) and Real Estate Receivables Certificates (CRI) in funding green and social projects. It identifies a significant opportunity to use ABS to aggregate small-scale sustainable projects, particularly in agriculture and renewable energy, to attract institutional capital.

The report provides a detailed 'radiography' of how Brazilian states are implementing the Forest Code, highlighting that while CAR registration is consolidated, the analysis of these registries and the subsequent execution of the PRA remain significant bottlenecks. It identifies a heterogeneous landscape where a few states like Pará and Mato Grosso lead in implementation, while others remain stagnant. The document emphasizes technical challenges, such as insufficient cartographic bases and poor communication with landowners, as well as institutional hurdles like the instability of the national Sicar system. It also notes a concerning legal precedent in Goiás, where state legislation has introduced rules more flexible than federal law, potentially undermining the Forest Code's integrity.

The policy brief provides a detailed 'radiography' of the implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code, focusing on the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Environmental Regularization Program (PRA). It identifies a significant gap between the initial registration of properties and the final stage of environmental regularization, noting that while registration is consolidated, the analysis of data remains a primary bottleneck. The authors highlight extreme heterogeneity among states, with a few leaders like Mato Grosso and Pará, and others remaining stagnant. The document outlines systemic challenges across individual, institutional, technical-economic, and legal dimensions and recommends a national implementation plan, strengthening of the SICAR system, and better integration with agricultural credit and anti-deforestation policies.

The document examines four critical legal uncertainties hindering the implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code: the conflict between the Forest Code and the Atlantic Forest Law, the temporal benchmarks for Legal Reserve requirements under Article 68, the validity of revising previous environmental commitment terms, and the contradictory criteria for Environmental Reserve Quotas (CRA). These controversies create a state of permanent legal insecurity, leading to the suspension of CAR validations in states like Paraná and Santa Catarina, and a reliance on bureaucratic donation mechanisms for Legal Reserve compensation due to the lack of a functional CRA market.

The policy brief examines the Constitutional Financing Funds (FCFs) in Brazil's North, Northeast, and Midwest regions. It finds that while FCFs are designed to support small producers and low-income areas, the criteria for 'priority' beneficiaries and geographies have become so broad that they encompass nearly all producers and most municipalities. This lack of strict targeting has led to a concentration of resources in higher-value contracts and a small number of municipalities, particularly in the Matopiba region. Despite this concentration, FCFs remain a critical source of credit for the most underdeveloped municipalities in the North and Northeast, where alternative financing is often unavailable.

The document serves as a legislative annex listing the legal framework governing the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Environmental Regularization Program (PRA) in Brazil. It details federal laws, such as Law No. 12,651/2012, and specific state-level regulations for 23 Brazilian states and the Federal District, covering topics such as native vegetation protection, legal reserve compensation, and environmental licensing.

The report examines rural credit in the Cerrado, noting that while the biome accounts for about one-third of Brazil's rural credit and agricultural production, financing is highly concentrated among large producers and public banks. It highlights a growing reliance on private funding sources like Agricultural Credit Notes (LCA) and a significant scarcity of credit for family farming through programs like PRONAF. The authors argue that improving credit access for smaller producers is essential for increasing productivity and reducing deforestation pressures.

The report examines rural credit in the Cerrado, noting that while the biome accounts for about one-third of Brazil's rural credit and agricultural production, financing is highly concentrated. Average contract values in the Cerrado are 181% higher than in other biomes, primarily benefiting large-scale soy and cattle producers. While there is a growing trend toward private funding sources like Agribusiness Credit Notes (LCA), public banks—specifically Banco do Brasil—continue to dominate distribution. The study highlights a significant gap in credit access for small and medium producers (Pronaf and Pronamp), arguing that improving this access is essential for increasing productivity and reducing deforestation pressures.

The report examines the transition of Ibama's environmental sanctioning process toward a model centered on environmental conciliation. It argues that while conciliation could theoretically speed up processes, its implementation under the current administration has been deficient due to regulatory delays, a lack of technical qualification in key appointments, and a dangerous centralization of power. These failures, combined with the replacement of career staff with political appointees, are found to weaken the deterrent effect of environmental fines and contribute to increased deforestation in the Amazon.