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The report finds that Pronaf exhibits a regressive distribution of credit, where the most capitalized producers receive the bulk of resources while the most vulnerable are excluded. It highlights that 79% of family farmers did not access Pronaf credit in 2024/25, and resources are heavily concentrated in the South and Southeast regions and in conventional crops like soy, corn, and coffee. The document argues that lines for bioeconomy and agroecology remain marginal, often representing less than 1% of total credit. It emphasizes the critical but underfunded role of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (ATER), which received less than 0.3% of the total family agriculture budget in the 2025/26 Plan Safra. To address these failures, the report recommends establishing minimum allocation targets for smallholders and the North/Northeast regions, updating outdated fiscal modules for eligibility, integrating the Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy, and blocking subsidized credit for properties with recent deforestation.

The research identifies significant regional and gender disparities in access to PRONAF credit in Brazil, finding that technical assistance (ATER) and cooperative membership are critical determinants of access. While the 2025/26 Agricultural Plan allocated R$ 78.2 billion to PRONAF, a previous study indicated that approximately 85% of smallholders lack credit access. Simulations show that expanding ATER would most effectively increase access in the North and Northeast, while strengthening cooperatives would be most impactful in the Southeast and Midwest. The report warns that declining federal investments in ATER—dropping to approximately R$ 26.48 million by October 2025—compromise the program's ability to build climate resilience among vulnerable smallholders.

The report analyzes inequalities in access to Pronaf credit among Brazilian family farmers, identifying technical assistance (ATER) and cooperatives as key drivers of access. It highlights a stark regional divide, with the South region having significantly higher access than the North and Northeast. The study argues that credit alone is insufficient for climate adaptation and calls for increased investment in ATER, which has seen a downward trend in federal spending, to ensure a just and sustainable agricultural transition.

Between 2021 and 2023, bioeconomy finance in Brazil averaged US$ 3.213 billion per year, heavily concentrated in the planted forest and bioenergy sectors. While domestic private sources provided 69% of the funding, biodiversity products and native forests remain significantly underfunded, with the Northern region receiving only 12% of biodiversity-related finance.

The policy brief outlines recommendations for the 2024-2025 Plano Safra, focusing on restricting credit for properties linked to deforestation, creating incentives for sustainable practices aligned with the Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy, and improving credit access for small-scale farmers via Pronaf. It also suggests harmonizing social and environmental restrictions across rural insurance programs like PSR and Proagro to mitigate climate risks and promote low-carbon agriculture.

The document reveals that only 15% of Brazilian family farmers access credit, with resources heavily concentrated in the South region, larger family properties, and grain production. It argues that the current eligibility criteria, particularly the outdated 'fiscal module' system, create distortions that exclude the most vulnerable producers. The brief recommends revising these criteria and integrating sustainability requirements to support a transition to low-carbon agriculture.

The report finds that only 15% of Brazilian family farmers access credit, with resources heavily concentrated in the South region, larger properties, and grain production. It argues that the current eligibility criteria, particularly the outdated 'fiscal module' system, create distortions that exclude the most vulnerable producers. The authors recommend revising these criteria and integrating sustainability requirements to support a transition to low-carbon agriculture.

The report analyzes Brazil's agricultural policy framework, highlighting that while mitigation and adaptation tools exist, many lack social justice elements. It identifies key policies like PNAPO and the PRONAF ABC+ credit line as essential for a just transition, while noting that the ABC+ Plan primarily targets large-scale producers. The document recommends expanding technical assistance to smallholders and improving coordination between the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA) and the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Family Farming (MDA).

The report analyzes the institutional framework and policies of the Brazilian agricultural sector regarding climate change. It distinguishes between mitigation and adaptation policies and evaluates whether they incorporate 'justice elements'—such as prioritizing family farming, increasing income for vulnerable producers, and promoting gender and racial equity. The mapping identifies the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) as the primary actor, while noting a lack of a dedicated national strategy for a just transition in agriculture.

The report analyzes the high climate vulnerability of the Caatinga biome, highlighting that family farmers—who manage 79% of rural properties in the region—are the most exposed to drought. Using an aridity index, the study demonstrates that increased aridity leads to significant relative losses in the productivity of beans, maize, and livestock compared to other Brazilian biomes. Beyond immediate agricultural losses, the report establishes correlations between increased aridity and worsening socio-economic outcomes, including higher poverty rates, increased infant mortality, higher school delay rates in primary education, and increased unemployment. It argues that a 'just rural transition' in the region requires integrating social policies with low-carbon agricultural technologies to build resilience among the most vulnerable producers.

The document argues that Brazil's Plano Safra must align with climate goals by prioritizing low-carbon credit lines, improving rural insurance for climate resilience, and redirecting constitutional funds toward small-scale sustainable producers.

The report examines the gap between soybean production distribution and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change—manifesting as severe droughts, hail, and frost—has led to unprecedented insurance claim payments. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers found that while insurance data is insufficient to predict losses in the North and Northeast regions, agricultural yield data from PAM/IBGE can effectively identify climate variables (precipitation, fire risk, and wind) that correlate with losses. The authors recommend expanding insurance supply to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA, utilizing production history for pricing in underserved areas, and strengthening the reinsurance market and public-private funds to ensure insurer liquidity.

The document examines the gap between soybean production and rural insurance coverage in Brazil, highlighting how climate change exacerbates risks through extreme events. Using LASSO machine learning models, researchers demonstrate that while insurance data is scarce in regions like the North and Northeast, agricultural yield data can effectively identify climate variables—primarily precipitation, fire risk, and wind—that drive production losses. The brief argues for expanding insurance to vulnerable regions like MATOPIBA and improving the solvency of insurers through reinsurance and public-private funds to support a low-carbon agricultural transition.

The report compares the Proagro and PSR rural insurance programs in Brazil, finding that Proagro's design—where the government assumes risk while financial institutions operate the program—creates significant information asymmetries and moral hazard. This leads to higher claim rates and increasing costs for the National Treasury. In contrast, the PSR, where private insurers bear the risk, shows greater efficiency and growth, though it struggles to reach small-scale producers. The authors recommend migrating resources toward the PSR, improving claim verification through technology and training, and integrating sustainable farming criteria into risk zoning to enhance the sustainability of Brazilian agriculture.

The policy brief examines the Constitutional Financing Funds (FCFs) in Brazil's North, Northeast, and Midwest regions. It finds that while FCFs are designed to support small producers and low-income areas, the criteria for 'priority' beneficiaries and geographies have become so broad that they encompass nearly all producers and most municipalities. This lack of strict targeting has led to a concentration of resources in higher-value contracts and a small number of municipalities, particularly in the Matopiba region. Despite this concentration, FCFs remain a critical source of credit for the most underdeveloped municipalities in the North and Northeast, where alternative financing is often unavailable.

The document examines the role of BNDES in Brazil's agricultural investment credit, highlighting a significant increase in disbursements between 1995 and 2020. It details the bank's credit structure, noting a predominance of indirect loans and a focus on crop activities, particularly soy. The analysis reveals that credit for equipment is concentrated in the Midwestern region and primarily operated by private financial agents, such as banks owned by machine manufacturers, which contrasts with the broader Brazilian rural credit market dominated by public banks.

The report examines BNDES's impact on Brazilian agricultural investment credit, noting that disbursements nearly quadrupled in real terms between 1995 and 2020. The bank's credit is heavily concentrated in crop activities, particularly soy, and the acquisition of harvesters and tractors. Geographically, the Center-West region has become the primary recipient of these funds, reflecting the expansion of the agricultural frontier. Unlike general rural credit in Brazil, which is dominated by public banks, BNDES equipment credit is primarily channeled through private commercial banks and manufacturer-owned banks.

The report analyzes Brazil's rural credit system, highlighting its complexity and fragmentation. It provides empirical evidence that rural credit, particularly when directed at small farmers, increases land and labor productivity and reduces deforestation by promoting the conversion of degraded pastures into cropland. The document argues for simplifying the credit system, increasing private sector participation, and strengthening the link between credit access and compliance with the Forest Code to ensure sustainable agricultural growth.

The document examines how credit cooperatives in Brazil serve as an efficient tool for financial inclusion, particularly for small rural producers. It highlights that while overall rural credit declined by 14% between 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, cooperative credit grew by 51.3%, increasing its market share from 11% to 17.5%. The brief explains that cooperatives reduce transaction costs and information asymmetry due to their proximity to producers. Geographically, cooperative presence is strongest in the South, Midwest, and Southeast regions, while it remains scarce in the North and Northeast. The analysis also details the interbank relationship where commercial banks use cooperatives to meet mandatory rural credit application requirements. Finally, it outlines the tax and regulatory advantages cooperatives hold over traditional banks, such as exemptions from Income Tax and CSLL on cooperative acts.

The document examines how credit cooperatives in Brazil serve as critical distribution channels for rural credit, particularly for small and medium-scale producers. It highlights that while total rural credit fell by 14% in real terms between 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, cooperative lending grew by 51.3%, increasing its market share from 11% to 17.5%. The brief attributes this success to the cooperatives' proximity to borrowers, which reduces transaction costs and information asymmetry. It also details the interbank relationship where commercial banks use cooperatives to meet regulatory requirements for rural credit distribution. Geographically, cooperative presence is strongest in the South, Central-west, and Southeast, while remaining scarce in the North and Northeast.