Qual É o Risco Climático para os Produtores Rurais na Caatinga?

The report analyzes the high climate vulnerability of the Caatinga biome, highlighting that family farmers—who manage 79% of rural properties in the region—are the most exposed to drought. Using an aridity index, the study demonstrates that increased aridity leads to significant relative losses in the productivity of beans, maize, and livestock compared to other Brazilian biomes. Beyond immediate agricultural losses, the report establishes correlations between increased aridity and worsening socio-economic outcomes, including higher poverty rates, increased infant mortality, higher school delay rates in primary education, and increased unemployment. It argues that a 'just rural transition' in the region requires integrating social policies with low-carbon agricultural technologies to build resilience among the most vulnerable producers.

• The Caatinga biome is characterized by higher frequency and intensity of droughts compared to other Brazilian biomes, with an average annual precipitation of 930mm, which is 39% lower than in other biomes.
• Family farmers are the most vulnerable group in the Caatinga, representing 79% of rural properties (1.36 million). They face significant barriers, including low access to technical assistance (8% vs 18% national average) and high illiteracy rates (53%).
• Agricultural productivity in the Caatinga is historically lower than in other biomes and shows high sensitivity to aridity. A one-unit increase in the aridity index results in a relative productivity drop of 16% for beans, 35% for maize, and 9% for livestock, whereas other biomes see drops of 6%, 16%, and a 1% increase, respectively.
• Municipalities with a high concentration of family farmers (over 90% of rural area) suffer significantly greater productivity losses during droughts than those with low family farming presence (under 10%). For maize, the loss is 32% in high-presence municipalities compared to 19% in low-presence ones.
• Increased aridity is strongly correlated with immediate socio-economic decline. A one-unit increase in the aridity index is associated with a 7% decrease in per capita income, a 9% increase in the Gini inequality index, and a 13% increase in the proportion of people living in poverty.
• Climate shocks have severe long-term social consequences in the Caatinga. A one-unit increase in the aridity index correlates with a 10% increase in infant mortality, a 19% increase in school delay rates for primary education, and a 20% increase in the unemployment rate for people aged 18 and older.

APA

de Albuquerque, A., Castro, P., & Assunção, J. (2023). Qual É o Risco Climático para os Produtores Rurais na Caatinga? Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Risco-Climatico-na-Caatinga.pdf

Chicago

de Albuquerque, Amanda, Pablo Castro, and Juliano Assunção. Qual É o Risco Climático para os Produtores Rurais na Caatinga? Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Risco-Climatico-na-Caatinga.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Albuquerque |first1=Amanda |last2=Castro |first2=Pablo |last3=Assunção |first3=Juliano |title=Qual É o Risco Climático para os Produtores Rurais na Caatinga? |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=July 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Risco-Climatico-na-Caatinga.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dealbuquerque2023qual, author = {de Albuquerque, Amanda and Castro, Pablo and Assunção, Juliano}, title = {{Qual É o Risco Climático para os Produtores Rurais na Caatinga?}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Risco-Climatico-na-Caatinga.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }