Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America

A study by World Weather Attribution found that human-induced climate change significantly increased the intensity and likelihood of an early spring heat event in South America, which affected Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia. The event, occurring approximately once every 30 years in the current climate, would have been 1.4 to 4.3 °C cooler without human-caused warming. The study notes that the likelihood of such an event has increased by at least 100 times due to climate change. Future warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels is projected to make similar events five times more likely and 1.1 to 1.6 °C hotter. The researchers highlight a lack of heat action plans in the affected region, which increases vulnerability for the urban poor and ecosystems, despite the fact that adaptation can reduce morbidity and mortality.

• Human-induced climate change significantly intensified the heat event; without the warming caused by burning fossil fuels, the event would have been between 1.4 and 4.3 °C cooler.
• The likelihood of this specific heat event has increased by at least 100 times due to the strong trend of human-induced climate change.
• In the current climate, the heat event is estimated to be a 1 in 30 year occurrence based on gridded observational products.
• If global mean temperatures reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels, similar heat events are projected to be approximately 5 times more likely and 1.1 to 1.6 °C hotter than they are today.
• While ENSO may have affected large-scale weather patterns, its direct contribution to the extreme heat was small relative to the signal from climate change.
• The researchers found no existing heat action plans in the affected area, which represents a missed opportunity to mitigate impacts on vulnerable populations through early warning and public services.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2023). Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/strong-influence-of-climate-change-in-uncharacteristic-early-spring-heat-in-south-america/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America. 2023. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/strong-influence-of-climate-change-in-uncharacteristic-early-spring-heat-in-south-america/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America |date=10 October 2023 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/strong-influence-of-climate-change-in-uncharacteristic-early-spring-heat-in-south-america/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2023strong, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2023}, month = oct, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/strong-influence-of-climate-change-in-uncharacteristic-early-spring-heat-in-south-america/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }