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The report finds that while electricity access finance in 20 high-impact countries increased to USD 30.2 billion per year in 2015-16, it remains far below the USD 52 billion needed annually for universal access by 2030. Investment is heavily skewed toward non-residential consumers and grid-connected technologies, including a doubling of fossil fuel investments to USD 8 billion. Clean cooking finance has decreased to USD 30 million per year, a fraction of the USD 4.4 billion required. Geographically, finance is concentrated in a few countries, with Sub-Saharan Africa falling further behind despite having the highest need.

The document examines the deteriorating security and political situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as of October 2017, specifically focusing on the repeated postponement of national elections by President Joseph Kabila and the humanitarian crisis in the Kasai region. It criticizes SADC for its 'lacklustre' response and adherence to 'non-interference', which the author suggests aligns the body with the incumbent regime. The briefing warns that further instability could trigger a full-scale war, exacerbate refugee flows into neighbouring countries like Angola, and undermine previous peace gains. It recommends that SADC pressure President Kabila to hold elections, condemn government involvement in mass killings, and revive its role as a peace facilitator.

The document analyzes the strategic relationship between Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), asserting that the DRC is Luanda's most critical foreign policy objective. It details Angola's history of military intervention to protect the Congolese government and its own security interests, while noting a recent shift in policy. Angola is now signaling impatience with President Joseph Kabila's delay of elections, which Luanda views as a threat to long-term stability. This tension is exacerbated by the influx of over 32,000 refugees from the Kasai region into Angola since April 2017. The author concludes that while economic constraints may deter immediate military action, Angola will prioritize the DRC's political transition to prevent regional destabilization.

The briefing examines the rise of agricultural growth poles, or agropoles, across Africa as a strategy to attract private investment and transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture. It identifies 36 growth poles and 9 corridors across 23 countries, covering at least 3.5 million hectares. While these tools aim to boost competitiveness and industrialization, the document highlights operational failures, such as delays in Morocco and Senegal, and risks like 'land grabbing' and the creation of economic dualism. It argues that for agropoles to be sustainable, they must be supported by robust national legal frameworks, avoid restrictive stabilization clauses, and follow a three-step development process: vision, design, and implementation, with a strong emphasis on community engagement and environmental impact assessments.

The policy brief examines the rise of agricultural growth poles in Africa, which are coordinated investments designed to shift the continent from subsistence to commercial agriculture. While these 'agropoles' aim to attract private investment and promote industrialization, the document highlights significant operational challenges, including poor coordination, financial mismanagement, and risks to small-scale farmers. It argues that for these initiatives to be sustainable, governments must implement robust legal frameworks, avoid stabilization provisions in contracts, and follow a three-stage development process consisting of vision, design, and implementation, with a strong emphasis on transparency and community engagement.

The report identifies a gap between Namibia's strong economic growth and its poor human development indicators, particularly in sanitation, electricity access, and nutrition. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it models various policy interventions to determine their impact on GDP, extreme poverty, and infant mortality. Key findings suggest that while individual sectoral pushes like 'Health Extension' or 'Infrastructure Push' provide specific gains, an 'Integrated Development Push' combined with household transfers offers the most comprehensive path to reducing poverty and inequality, though it involves trade-offs in funding and specific health outcomes.

The paper investigates the dynamics between South Africa, as a regional hegemon, and several 'secondary powers' in sub-Saharan Africa. It concludes that while these states possess significant material power, their ability to contest South African leadership is limited by poor governance and a lack of overlapping strategic interests. Most contestation is found to be unintended, with the exception of Angola, which employs a strategy of soft balancing through economic protectionism and strategic investments.

The document analyses 64 agricultural adaptation projects in sub-Saharan Africa approved between 2010 and 2016, finding that 61% involved the private sector. It categorises this involvement into three levels: stimulating future investment through awareness and business models, using private actors as service providers for public activities, and leveraging private capital through incentives. While the first two roles are more common, the report finds limited evidence of large-scale private investment being leveraged, with one notable exception in Madagascar. The authors argue that project designers should identify commercial opportunities across the entire value chain from the start to better attract diverse private actors.

Tanzania possesses estimated natural gas reserves of roughly 60 TCF, with the potential to generate up to $6 billion in annual revenue. While the country has established formal governance frameworks, including the Petroleum Act and the Tanzania Extractive Industries Transparency and Accountability Act, the paper argues that the actual impact on development depends on the political will to combat 'grand corruption' and the ability of civil society to hold the ruling coalition accountable. The author warns that windfall rents could incentivize elite predation and weaken the state's incentive to maintain a broad tax base, potentially destabilizing the political equilibrium.

Angola is undergoing a critical presidential transition amid a severe financial crisis and rising social discontent. The report argues that the state's stability has relied on four unsustainable pillars: a centralized presidency, oil-funded patronage via Sonangol, instrumentalized foreign relations, and a securitized society. With plummeting oil prices and high debt—particularly to China—the ruling MPLA party faces internal factionalism and a strengthened opposition, primarily UNITA. The author contends that the incoming president, João Lourenço, must implement deep economic diversification and security sector reforms to avoid mass unrest or further authoritarianism.

The document provides a detailed analysis of energy access and efficiency across high-impact countries, highlighting a significant gap between urban and rural electrification and the critical role of enabling policy frameworks. It reports that 3.04 billion people lacked clean cooking access in 2014 and 1.06 billion lacked electricity. While some countries like India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda show strong policy support for energy access, Sub-Saharan Africa remains the least electrified region with underdeveloped policy environments. The report also examines energy efficiency and renewable energy, noting that while renewable energy targets are nearly universal, energy efficiency mandates often lag, particularly in developing nations.

The report argues that insurance promotes growth through two primary channels: risk mitigation (protecting assets and facilitating credit) and intermediation (mobilizing long-term capital for investment). It identifies a four-stage evolution path for insurance markets, noting that most sub-Saharan African countries are currently in the first two stages, where asset insurance dominates and the intermediation-for-growth role is not yet active. The transition to the third stage—retail expansion—is hindered by low income levels, high economic informalisation, and a shortage of actuarial skills. The authors recommend stage-appropriate interventions, such as developing contractual savings solutions for the informal sector and improving domestic professional capacity, to unlock the sector's potential to support capital markets and inclusive growth.

The paper argues that African countries should pivot away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy toward minerals and metals essential for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as copper and platinum. It highlights a decline in mineral exploration in Africa, particularly South Africa, and warns against the 'resource curse' associated with oil wealth. The author contends that the falling cost of renewables and the rise of smart technologies make fossil fuel investments risky, urging African policymakers to align industrial policies with the demand for green energy minerals to avoid premature de-industrialisation.

The report analyzes development trajectories for 14 Southern African countries, forecasting that while GDP is expected to grow, extreme poverty will persist due to rapid population growth and governance challenges. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated policy interventions in governance, health, education, and infrastructure can significantly improve regional outcomes, with governance capacity identified as the primary catalyst for economic growth.

The document outlines the evolution of China-Africa relations from early diplomatic ties to a complex modern partnership. It highlights the role of FOCAC as a primary vehicle for cooperation, the shift toward a 'New Normal' characterized by slowing economic growth and commodity price drops, and China's increasing involvement in African peace and security, marking a departure from its traditional 'non-interference' policy.

The document explores the potential for the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to monitor Agenda 2063 and the SDGs, noting strong normative and thematic alignment. However, it identifies critical barriers, including administrative weaknesses, lack of funding, and slow review cycles, which currently render the APRM incapable of the extensive monitoring required. The authors suggest that for the APRM to succeed, it must undergo substantial reform, improve the frequency of its reviews, and enhance its data-gathering capabilities through ICT and partnerships.

The report details a workshop focused on integrating civil society into South Africa's Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) process. It identifies critical gaps in the Draft MSP Bill and Framework, such as the lack of an ecosystem-based approach and insufficient public participation. Key recommendations include establishing a civil society institutional structure (like a stakeholder forum or Community of Practice), aligning academic research with national MSP milestones, and developing an information-sharing portal to improve transparency and data accessibility.

The document analyzes Ethiopia's rapid economic growth and human development progress since 1991, while highlighting persistent gaps in basic service access and agricultural productivity. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, it compares a 'Current Path' forecast against various intervention scenarios, concluding that an integrated approach across agriculture, education, health, and governance is necessary to reach lower-middle-income status by 2025.

The document forecasts that Africa's population will grow to over 1.8 billion by 2035, potentially compounding poverty if economic growth and job creation do not keep pace. While economic growth is expected, it will be heterogeneous, with oil-dependent nations remaining vulnerable to price shocks. The region faces significant infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity and water, and rapid urbanisation that may increase social instability. Despite a rise in riots and protests, high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s. Popular support for democracy remains strong, although actual democratic governance remains fragile and limited in scope.

The report examines arms brokering practices and national legislation in 12 Southern African countries, including Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. It finds that most of these states lack specific domestic laws to regulate brokers, leaving them vulnerable to illicit trafficking and sanctions-busting. While South Africa and Mauritius have established comprehensive brokering controls, others rely on outdated laws or general criminal codes. The document emphasizes the role of regional frameworks like the SADC Protocol and international treaties such as the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) and the UN Programme of Action (UNPoA) in closing legislative loopholes and improving cross-border cooperation.