Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world

This research paper analyzes the impact of commodity price trends, geopolitical shifts under the Trump administration, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution on investment and economic growth in African countries. It argues that while some commodity prices are recovering, African nations should pivot away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy toward minerals essential for renewable energy and digital technologies to avoid premature de-industrialization.

• Investment in mineral and metals exploration in Africa is experiencing a sharp decline, with South Africa being particularly affected, despite forecasts that some commodity prices will recover.
• World Bank forecasts suggest crude oil prices will rise from an average of $43/bbl in 2016 to $60/bbl in 2018. While this may improve growth prospects for countries with large reserves like Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda, it may complicate patronage and budget deficits in Nigeria and Angola.
• Copper and platinum are identified as more attractive investments than oil and coal. Platinum prices may increase if fuel cell technology gains traction, while gold prices are projected to decline from a 2016 average of $1,249/oz to $1,138 in 2018.
• The economic case for coal is weakening as the cost of solar PV fell by 66% between 2009 and 2016. In South Africa, new wind and solar power are cheaper per KWh than new coal, challenging the argument that coal and nuclear are necessary for baseload demand.
• The Fourth Industrial Revolution increases demand for minerals and metals used in smart, decentralized energy and smartphones. Solar panels require at least 16 different minerals, metals, or rare earth elements, and wind turbines require at least 13.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2017). Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world. https://saiia.org.za/research/commodity-prices-and-investment-prospects-for-african-countries-in-a-brave-new-world/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world. 2017. https://saiia.org.za/research/commodity-prices-and-investment-prospects-for-african-countries-in-a-brave-new-world/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world |date=3 February 2017 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/commodity-prices-and-investment-prospects-for-african-countries-in-a-brave-new-world/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2017commodity, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2017}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/commodity-prices-and-investment-prospects-for-african-countries-in-a-brave-new-world/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }