Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world

The paper argues that African countries should pivot away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy toward minerals and metals essential for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as copper and platinum. It highlights a decline in mineral exploration in Africa, particularly South Africa, and warns against the 'resource curse' associated with oil wealth. The author contends that the falling cost of renewables and the rise of smart technologies make fossil fuel investments risky, urging African policymakers to align industrial policies with the demand for green energy minerals to avoid premature de-industrialisation.

• Investment in the exploration of metals and minerals in Africa is seeing a sharp decline, with South Africa being particularly affected, despite some predicted recoveries in commodity prices.
• World Bank forecasts suggest crude oil prices will rise from an average of $43/bbl in 2016 to $60/bbl by 2018, which may incentivize economic diversification but risks empowering repressive elites in oil-wealthy African nations.
• Copper and platinum are identified as more attractive investments than oil and coal; platinum prices specifically may rise if fuel cell technology gains traction.
• The economic case for coal-fired power is weakening as the cost of solar PV fell by 66% between 2009 and 2016, and in South Africa, new wind and solar are cheaper per KWh than new coal.
• The Fourth Industrial Revolution is driving demand for minerals and metals needed for smart, decentralized energy and smartphones, with solar panels requiring at least 16 different minerals, metals, or rare earth elements and wind turbines requiring at least 13.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2017). Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world. https://saiia.org.za/research/commodity-prices-and-investment-prospects-for-african-countries-in-a-brave-new-world/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world. 2017. https://saiia.org.za/research/commodity-prices-and-investment-prospects-for-african-countries-in-a-brave-new-world/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world |date=3 February 2017 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/commodity-prices-and-investment-prospects-for-african-countries-in-a-brave-new-world/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2017commodity, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Commodity prices and investment prospects for African countries in a brave new world}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2017}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/commodity-prices-and-investment-prospects-for-african-countries-in-a-brave-new-world/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }