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The report analyzes local content policies (LCPs) used by mineral-rich nations to increase the use of domestic labor, goods, and services in the mining sector. It details various policy instruments—ranging from mandatory quotas and ownership requirements to government incentives and voluntary business initiatives—and examines their practical application in countries such as Norway, Chile, Ghana, and Brazil. The document argues that LCPs often fail when implemented as blanket provisions without clear objectives or sufficient industrial capacity. It identifies critical prerequisites for success, including institutional readiness, a favorable business climate, and a long-term vision that transcends political cycles. The report concludes that effective LCPs require a combination of quantitative and qualitative measures, robust monitoring through key performance indicators, and strong partnerships between governments, mining firms, and local suppliers to ensure sustainable economic diversification.

The paper examines how African countries attempt to move beyond the export of raw minerals through resource-based industrialisation, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese investment. It analyzes tools such as export restrictions, local content requirements, and fiscal policies, concluding that these measures often fail due to inadequate infrastructure, energy shortages, and a lack of human capital. The author argues for a shift toward 'product space diversification'—developing capabilities that allow for a broader variety of exports—rather than focusing solely on downstream mineral processing (beneficiation).

The author contends that Africa's high fertility rates, particularly in countries like Tanzania, hinder economic growth by maintaining a high ratio of dependents to working-age people. By comparing Africa to the 'Asian Tiger' economies and the US, the text illustrates how a higher ratio of working-age persons per dependent drives income growth. The document suggests that improving water, sanitation, education, and contraceptive access could lead to a significantly larger economy and the elimination of poverty by 2063.

The Green Aggregation Tech Enterprise (GATE) is a proposed guarantee facility designed to mitigate demand and payment risks for mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa. By guaranteeing a baseline level of revenue, GATE aims to transform mini-grids into a bankable asset class, shifting their financing from donor grants to private debt. The instrument will be piloted in Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and the DRC, with a phased implementation pathway moving from a proof-of-concept (2018-2019) to full commercialization by 2028-2030. Financial modelling suggests that at scale, GATE can be sustainable and catalytic, potentially mobilizing US$ 1.725 billion in private investment by 2030 and providing electricity to millions of households and businesses.

The document analyzes the volatile political climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ahead of the December 2018 elections. It highlights the systematic elimination of political competition by the ruling party, deep distrust in the electoral commission (CENI), and the persistent insecurity in the eastern DRC. The authors present four scenarios: a worst-case scenario of election cancellation leading to violence, a win by the ruling party's candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary (either as a puppet for Joseph Kabila or as an independent leader), a contested win legitimized by a biased judiciary, and a popular opposition victory. The paper emphasizes that the DRC's vast mineral wealth, particularly cobalt, sustains international interest but also fuels internal instability and patronage networks. It recommends that SADC and the AU maintain pressure on the government to ensure a credible election and prepare for potential wide-scale violence.

The report examines the economic landscape of SADC, noting a decline in intra-regional trade and investment since 2013 and a persistent overdependence on primary commodities. It identifies key barriers to integration, including non-tariff barriers, infrastructure gaps in energy and transport, and a lack of policy harmonisation. While the report highlights the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA), it argues that sustainable growth requires a shift toward regional sector complementarity and the creation of regional value chains (RVCs) to reduce vulnerability to global commodity price shocks.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The document outlines findings from a multi-year research project on FDI in SADC, highlighting that while FDI can catalyze regional trade and economic development, its success is heavily dependent on governance, policy certainty, and the transition from donor-led to private-sector-led investment. It examines the FDI regimes of South Africa, Namibia, Angola, Mozambique, and Tanzania, alongside specific analyses of the energy, transport, and agricultural sectors (specifically macadamia nuts and soybeans). The briefing concludes that regional value chains in SADC remain limited and that the primary barriers to deeper integration are trade facilitation and the lack of private sector opportunities rather than a lack of financing.

The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The document outlines a four-step process for governments to leverage mining investments for national development: aligning with national objectives, taking stock of current capabilities, crafting specific policies, and establishing monitoring mechanisms. It details five types of local content policies: local procurement, direct employment, horizontal linkages (infrastructure and capabilities), downstream beneficiation, and the fostering of national mining firms. The guide emphasizes that policies must be context-specific, gender-equitable, and compliant with international trade and investment laws, while warning that automation may reduce future employment and procurement opportunities.

The report argues that global fossil fuel subsidies, estimated at USD 425 billion in 2015, represent a massive untapped financial resource that could fund universal energy access multiple times over. It contends that untargeted consumption subsidies are often regressive, benefiting wealthier households and potentially hindering energy access by straining utility budgets and encouraging fuel smuggling. The authors propose a 'Remove, Target, and Swap' framework: removing subsidies with no energy access benefit, targeting necessary subsidies toward the poor (e.g., through connection subsidies), and swapping fossil fuel support for investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency.

The document analyzes Zimbabwe's transition following the ousting of Robert Mugabe, focusing on the 2018 general elections. It argues that while Emmerson Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF are likely to win, the legitimacy of the process is crucial for unlocking foreign investment and implementing economic reforms. The author suggests a 'pragmatic' economic approach, citing Cote d'Ivoire as a positive model for recovery through IMF engagement and market-friendly policies, while warning against the political instability seen in Egypt. Key priorities identified include addressing the $9 billion debt, stabilizing the currency, and re-engaging with Western partners and the IMF.

The SADC region faces a significant electricity supply-demand gap, with 68% of residents lacking access and a heavy reliance on coal, primarily driven by South Africa. The report argues for a dual approach: strengthening the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) through better regional regulation and transboundary projects, and scaling up renewable energy mini-grids in rural areas. It highlights that while the region has vast solar, wind, and hydro potential, investment is hindered by poor policy frameworks and the financial insolvency of national utilities.

The policy brief contends that climate risks are often 'borderless' and that treating adaptation as a local problem hinders global ambition. It advocates for a shared terminology and a transboundary framing of risk—recognizing how impacts in one country create risks in others via trade, migration, and ecosystems—to better utilize the Paris Agreement's mechanisms, such as the global stocktake and National Adaptation Plans, for collective resilience.

The document examines the systemic failures of public-private partnerships (PPPs), citing the collapse of Carillion in the UK and concerns over the US 'Rebuilding Infrastructure' plan. It argues that PPPs often fail when used primarily to keep debt off public balance sheets, leading to poor project preparation and skewed risk allocation. To improve outcomes, the author suggests moving toward systemic master planning, enhancing public sector negotiation skills, and adopting procurement strategies that prioritize lifecycle value over the lowest bid. The paper emphasizes that for PPPs to support the UN Sustainable Development Goals, they must be designed with transparent, equitable contracts and a focus on sustainable development rather than just financial returns.

The briefing argues that climate adaptation is currently undervalued and incorrectly viewed as a local problem, which hinders global ambition. It proposes a 'transboundary' approach to climate risk, recognizing that impacts in one country create risks in others through trade, biophysical flows, people, and finance. The authors review progress from COP23 and suggest that the Paris Agreement's mechanisms—such as the global stocktake and National Adaptation Plans—should be operationalized to track and manage these cross-border risks to avoid 'climate change contagion' in the global economy.

The paper argues that SADC's integration efforts have been hindered by weak leadership, a lack of enforcement powers in its Secretariat, and a reluctance by member states to cede sovereignty. It suggests that President Ramaphosa's background in mining could drive a future-oriented regional mining strategy, particularly regarding minerals for renewable energy batteries, and that strengthening the SADC Parliament is necessary to ensure regional policies are domesticated into national laws.

The report introduces a framework for measuring 'additionality' in climate finance, focusing on whether public investments catalyze activity that would not have occurred under a business-as-usual scenario. It details a qualitative multi-criteria assessment (MCA) for individual projects and a quantitative 'additionality modifier' based on the IESE VCPE Index for portfolio-level analysis. The findings suggest that private equity is a viable instrument for additionality as it often targets high-risk markets where commercial investment is otherwise lacking.

The document outlines the proceedings of a three-day conference focused on the causes, mechanisms, and aftermath of state capture in South Africa. It examines the role of apartheid legacies, the influence of the private sector, the vulnerability of state-owned enterprises, and the failure of oversight institutions. The report emphasizes that state capture is a politico-economic project involving both formal and informal power, often facilitated by the politicization of the bureaucracy and the erosion of the criminal justice system. It argues for comprehensive state reform, including electoral changes, transparency in party funding, and the protection of whistleblowers, while drawing comparisons with state capture in Nigeria, Kenya, and Angola.

The document examines Resource-for-Infrastructure (RFI) agreements, which allow resource-rich but credit-constrained developing countries to secure infrastructure funding by securitizing future mineral or oil revenues. Using the Sicomines deal in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as a case study, the author highlights the benefits of rapid investment and reduced embezzlement risks, while warning against high costs, poor quality, and a lack of transparency. The brief recommends increasing supply-side competition, implementing third-party quality controls, and adopting conservative risk calculations to improve the outcomes of such deals.