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The paper examines the transformation of German-African energy relations, moving from a focus on energy poverty and development aid to a complex mix of energy diplomacy, strategic resource interests, and hydrogen technology. It highlights a tension between 'green objectives' (renewables) and 'fossilist objectives' (LNG imports), while warning against 'energy colonialism' in large-scale projects. The author advocates for a transition toward 'energy justice' and a value-chain approach to hydrogen to ensure equitable benefits for African nations.

The Europe Gas Tracker 2023 reports that the EU is pursuing a costly and uncoordinated expansion of gas infrastructure, including a potential 136% increase in LNG import capacity. This build-out, estimated to cost €53.5 billion, risks locking the bloc into fossil fuel dependency and contradicts the European Climate Law's goals of a 55% emissions reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050.

The NewClimate Institute argues that Germany's planned LNG terminal expansion exceeds necessary reserve buffers and threatens the country's climate targets. The report suggests that current floating terminals are sufficient for energy security, while further onshore expansion risks creating stranded assets and fossil fuel lock-ins. It criticizes the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) and the Energy Economics Institute (EWI) for underestimating technical capacities in their analyses and for assumptions that conflict with the legally binding Climate Action Act.

Natural gas is the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, with methane leakage potentially making its climate impact equivalent to coal. To align with the 1.5°C goal, global gas production and consumption must decrease by 30% by 2030 and 65% by 2050, with developed countries phasing out gas power by 2035. The document rejects the use of gas as a bridge fuel or a solution to the 2022 energy crisis, noting that expanding infrastructure creates stranded asset risks, particularly for non-OECD countries. It further argues that converting gas infrastructure to hydrogen is technically unproven and economically inefficient, and highlights severe public health risks associated with gas extraction, flaring, and domestic use.

Thirty-seven global NGOs are calling on the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) to stop financing fracked gas export projects in South Texas, arguing that the Texas LNG and Rio Grande LNG terminals are incompatible with the 1.5°C climate goal and violate Indigenous and environmental rights.

Recourse argues that the World Bank Group's Evolution Roadmap lacks essential commitments to the 1.5C goal and fails to rule out direct or indirect funding for fossil fuels, including through financial intermediaries and technical assistance.

The report details a surge in EU gas infrastructure projects, including 30 fast-tracked LNG terminals and extensive pipeline networks, driven by the 'gas panic' after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It warns that the proposed 227.2 bcm/y of additional LNG capacity would increase the EU's maximum import capacity by 136%, potentially costing €53.5 billion and emitting up to 950 million tons of CO2 annually. The document argues that these uncoordinated efforts, led by countries like Germany, Greece, and Italy, conflict with the EU's 'Fit for 55' climate goals and the European Climate Law. Additionally, it critiques the 'European Hydrogen Backbone' initiative, stating that repurposing methane pipelines for hydrogen is technically risky and economically unjustified, further entrenching fossil fuel use.

The document analyzes plans for €3.5 billion in new gas-fired power plants, pipelines, and LNG terminals in the Western Balkans. It argues that these projects, promoted by EU and U.S. institutions, would create a dependency on volatile gas markets and risk creating stranded assets, contradicting the region's carbon-neutral goals and the EU's 2050 targets.

One year after the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has substituted nearly 75% of Russian gas imports and seen wind and solar generate a record 22% of its electricity in 2022. Globally, gas demand is forecast to peak by the end of the decade, with 88% of electricity demand growth to 2025 expected to be met by renewables. While renewable energy saved billions in fossil fuel costs, high gas and coal prices drove 90% of the global increase in electricity costs in 2022. Russia faces significant financial losses from sanctions, including a USD 25 billion public deficit in January 2023, while EU industrial production grew by over 2% on average despite a 15% drop in industrial gas demand.

The report details the significant financial backing provided by private equity firms for both approved and proposed LNG export terminals in the United States. It argues that the rapid growth of this industry, driven by short-term price spikes, is incongruent with diminishing international demand and the EU's carbon reduction goals. The document highlights specific firms like KKR, I Squared Capital, and Fortress Investment, noting that such investments expose institutional investors to climate-related financial risks and cause environmental and social harm to frontline communities.

The document argues that ENGIE's transition strategy is incompatible with a 1.5°C scenario due to its continued investment in gas power and lack of transparency in its decarbonization plans.

The document criticizes ENGIE for expanding its fossil gas capacity and lacking a detailed transition strategy aligned with a 1.5°C scenario, despite its efforts to phase out coal.

The document examines the 2023 Nigerian elections, highlighting the role of ethno-regional configurations over ideology and the specific platforms of the APC, PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP. It assesses how different winners would impact domestic security, economic policy—specifically regarding oil and fuel subsidies—and Nigeria's energy relationship with Europe.

The report examines the early exploration phase of the Cabora Bassa Project (Special Grant Permit 4571) in Zimbabwe, highlighting significant gaps in transparency and community engagement. While the project has identified substantial potential liquid natural gas reserves, the authors find a lack of meaningful consultation with local populations in the Muzarabani and Mbire districts, creating an information asymmetry between investors and residents. The document warns of potential risks including securitization, human rights abuses, and environmental degradation in a region already highly vulnerable to climate-induced flooding and drought. It recommends making production and exploration agreements public, conducting an independent review of the Environmental Impact Assessment, and implementing an equity-based benefit-sharing model for local communities.

The document argues that ENGIE's transition plan is incomplete and incompatible with a 1.5°C scenario, as the company targets a "well below 2°C" world and continues to expand its fossil gas and LNG infrastructure. While ENGIE has significantly reduced its coal capacity and set ambitious renewable energy targets for 2030, the briefing highlights a lack of transparency in capital expenditure, accounting practices, and the feasibility of its 2045 gas decarbonization goal.

The report outlines a two-tiered approach to an EU methane import standard: an initial prescriptive standard focusing on practices and technologies, followed by a more ambitious emission intensity standard. It argues that there are no insuperable legal obstacles to such a standard under WTO or UNFCCC rules, provided the EU applies equivalent burdens to domestic production. Key recommendations include using an equivalence principle for exporting countries and companies, implementing financial penalties for non-compliance, and establishing an EU methane fund to support mitigation in developing countries. The document also highlights the need for robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) and warns of 'methane leakage' where high-emitting gas is redirected to less regulated markets.

The report analyzes how the Russian War in Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have disrupted decades of energy diplomacy. While Russian crude oil exports proved resilient by redirecting volumes to India and China, the gas sector faced a severe crisis due to its reliance on European pipelines. The document details the use of 'shadow fleets' and blending to circumvent oil price caps and the limited feasibility of redirecting pipeline gas. It concludes that Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on China and that the focus on survival and new fossil fuel markets has marginalized its domestic low-carbon agenda.

The NewClimate Institute finds that Germany's plan to build eleven LNG terminals with a total capacity of 73 bcm per year far exceeds the amount of gas needed to compensate for lost Russian pipeline imports. The report asserts that with continued energy efficiency and pipeline imports from neighbors, no new LNG terminals would be required. Building all planned terminals would likely result in stranded assets and undermine the energy transition by diverting resources from renewable energy and efficiency measures.

The NewClimate Institute asserts that Germany's planned LNG terminals are not necessary to meet gas demand following the loss of Russian imports and would likely become stranded assets. The report suggests that current demand could be met through continued imports from neighboring countries and increased energy efficiency, warning that full implementation of the 11 planned terminals would jeopardize the 2045 climate neutrality goal and violate the Paris Agreement.

The briefing argues that adopting a 45% renewable energy target by 2030 would halve EU fossil gas imports compared to the 40% target in the Fit for 55 plan, resulting in €43 billion in additional savings in 2030 and an estimated €200 billion between 2025 and 2030. It warns that relying on LNG diversification creates new dependencies and exposes the EU to global price shocks and high methane emissions, particularly from the US. The analysis highlights that countries like Italy, France, and Poland would see significant cost reductions, while warning that Poland's current plans for increased gas power generation could lead to power shortages and reduced competitiveness.