Small Step Up for Renewables, Giant Fall for Gas

The briefing argues that adopting a 45% renewable energy target by 2030 would halve EU fossil gas imports compared to the 40% target in the Fit for 55 plan, resulting in €43 billion in additional savings in 2030 and an estimated €200 billion between 2025 and 2030. It warns that relying on LNG diversification creates new dependencies and exposes the EU to global price shocks and high methane emissions, particularly from the US. The analysis highlights that countries like Italy, France, and Poland would see significant cost reductions, while warning that Poland's current plans for increased gas power generation could lead to power shortages and reduced competitiveness.

• Increasing the EU renewable energy target to 45% by 2030 would reduce fossil gas imports by half compared to the 40% target set in the Fit for 55 package. This reduction represents 118 billion cubic metres (bcm) of avoided imports, which equates to €43 billion in additional annual savings by 2030. Over the period from 2025 to 2030, these additional savings are estimated at €200 billion.
• Higher renewable energy targets beyond 45% would lead to even greater gas cost avoidance in 2030 compared to the 40% target, with 50% and 56% targets avoiding €48 billion and €55 billion respectively. A 50% target is identified by industry and civil society as necessary to align with the Paris Agreement.
• The briefing argues that diversifying gas sources through increased Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports is an insufficient solution that replaces one dependency with another, leaving the EU vulnerable to global price spikes and supply constraints. It notes that LNG imports, especially from the United States, are associated with high methane emissions.
• Specific EU Member States would benefit significantly from the 45% target: Italy could reduce gas costs by €6 billion in 2030 and nearly €30 billion between 2025 and 2030; France could save €3.4 billion in 2030 and €16 billion from 2025 to 2030; and Poland could save €18 billion from 2025 to 2030 by cutting imports by 10 bcm.
• Under the REPowerEU plan with a 45% target, total installed renewable energy capacity would rise to 1236 GW, providing 69% of all power generation, with wind and solar accounting for 55% of the electricity mix by 2030.

APA

Brown, S. (2022). Small Step Up for Renewables, Giant Fall for Gas. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/Report_-Small-Step-Up-for-Renewables-Giant-Fall-for-Gas.pdf

Chicago

Brown, Sarah. Small Step Up for Renewables, Giant Fall for Gas. Ember, 2022. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/Report_-Small-Step-Up-for-Renewables-Giant-Fall-for-Gas.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Brown |first1=Sarah |title=Small Step Up for Renewables, Giant Fall for Gas |publisher=Ember |date=7 December 2022 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/Report_-Small-Step-Up-for-Renewables-Giant-Fall-for-Gas.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brown2022small, author = {Brown, Sarah}, title = {{Small Step Up for Renewables, Giant Fall for Gas}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2022}, month = dec, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/Report_-Small-Step-Up-for-Renewables-Giant-Fall-for-Gas.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }