Rapid phasedown of natural gas

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics argues that natural gas is a primary driver of the climate crisis and must be rapidly phased down to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The document contends that gas is as harmful as coal due to methane leakage and the energy intensity of LNG, and that expanding gas infrastructure in response to energy crises creates stranded asset risks and harms public health. It further dismisses the industry claim that gas infrastructure can be cost-effectively converted to hydrogen.

• Natural gas is the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, contributing more than half of the increase over the last five years. Due to methane leakage and transport emissions, gas can have a climate impact equivalent to coal.
• To limit global warming to 1.5°C, global gas production and consumption must decrease by 30% by 2030 and 65% by 2050, requiring a 3% annual reduction in extraction and use during the 2020s. Developed countries should phase out gas power by 2035, and developing countries by 2045.
• The expansion of gas infrastructure as a response to the 2022 energy crisis is viewed as a poor solution that risks creating stranded assets. In the EU, new LNG capacity in development could provide 65% more gas than Russia supplied in late 2022, despite EU gas demand being projected to fall by 43% by 2030 if climate pledges are met.
• Gas extraction and use pose significant risks to human health. Drilling and fracking are associated with cancers, respiratory diseases, and birth defects. In the US, over one million African Americans live in counties with cancer risks above official concern levels due to toxic gases from natural gas facilities. Additionally, gas stoves are a major source of indoor air pollution, and gas boilers contribute significantly to outdoor NOx emissions in the UK and London.
• The gas industry's claim that infrastructure can be converted to hydrogen is described as unproven and expensive. Converting LNG terminals to liquid hydrogen or ammonia is inefficient; liquid hydrogen requires cooling to temperatures nearly 100°C lower than LNG, and converting an LNG terminal to liquid hydrogen would waste approximately 50% of the total cost.
• Gas is an ineffective tool for sustainable development and energy access. Approximately 80% of people without electricity live in rural areas where decentralized renewables are more suitable. Furthermore, non-OECD countries face high stranded asset risks; in a 2°C warming scenario, 60% of stranded oil and gas assets and 80% of government-owned stranded assets (totaling USD 387 billion) are in non-OECD countries.

APA

Team, Z. (2023). Rapid phasedown of natural gas. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/rapid-phasedown-of-natural-gas/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Rapid phasedown of natural gas. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2023. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/rapid-phasedown-of-natural-gas/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Rapid phasedown of natural gas |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=9 March 2023 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/rapid-phasedown-of-natural-gas/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2023rapid, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Rapid phasedown of natural gas}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2023}, month = mar, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/rapid-phasedown-of-natural-gas/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }