Rapid phasedown of natural gas

Natural gas is the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, with methane leakage potentially making its climate impact equivalent to coal. To align with the 1.5°C goal, global gas production and consumption must decrease by 30% by 2030 and 65% by 2050, with developed countries phasing out gas power by 2035. The document rejects the use of gas as a bridge fuel or a solution to the 2022 energy crisis, noting that expanding infrastructure creates stranded asset risks, particularly for non-OECD countries. It further argues that converting gas infrastructure to hydrogen is technically unproven and economically inefficient, and highlights severe public health risks associated with gas extraction, flaring, and domestic use.

• Natural gas is the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, contributing more than half of the increase over the last five years. When accounting for methane leakage during extraction, processing, and transport, gas may have a climate impact equivalent to coal.
• To limit global warming to 1.5°C, global gas production and consumption must be reduced by 30% by 2030 and 65% by 2050. This requires a 3% annual reduction in extraction and use throughout the 2020s, with no new gas fields developed.
• The electricity sector requires a significant reduction in gas generation capacity: more than 55% by 2035 and around 95% by 2040 compared to 2020 levels. Developed countries should phase out unabated gas power by 2035, and developing countries by 2045.
• Expanding gas infrastructure in response to the 2022 energy crisis is viewed as a poor strategy that risks creating stranded assets. In the EU, new LNG capacity under development could provide 65% more gas than Russia supplied in late 2022, despite a projected 43% fall in EU gas demand by 2030 if climate pledges are met.
• Low and middle-income countries face high financial risks from stranded assets; in a 2°C warming scenario, 60% of stranded oil and gas assets and 80% of government-owned stranded assets (totaling USD 387 billion) are in non-OECD countries.
• Gas extraction and use pose severe health risks. Drilling and fracking are linked to cancers and respiratory diseases, while gas flaring in poorer countries affects millions, such as in the Niger Delta. Domestically, gas stoves and boilers contribute to toxic indoor and outdoor air pollution, with gas boilers in the UK emitting over 8.5 times more NOx than the country's gas-fired power stations.
• The claim that gas infrastructure can be converted to hydrogen is dismissed as economically and technically unviable. Converting LNG terminals to liquid hydrogen or ammonia is expensive and inefficient, with estimated energy losses of 30%-40% for liquid hydrogen and 80% for ammonia production.

APA

Team, Z. (2023). Rapid phasedown of natural gas. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/rapid-phasedown-of-natural-gas/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Rapid phasedown of natural gas. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2023. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/rapid-phasedown-of-natural-gas/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Rapid phasedown of natural gas |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=9 March 2023 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/rapid-phasedown-of-natural-gas/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2023rapid, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Rapid phasedown of natural gas}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2023}, month = mar, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/rapid-phasedown-of-natural-gas/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }