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The document argues that climate-risk mapping in the global South is currently split between 'precisionism'—the reliance on standardized indices and models—and 'groundtruthing'—the use of lived narratives and ethnography. Precisionism often creates a 'metrics mirage' that obscures social inequalities and justice claims, while groundtruthing struggles to gain policy traction in indicator-driven bureaucracies. To resolve this, the authors introduce 'epistemic diplomacy,' a power-aware procedural approach for integrating mixed evidence. This framework includes five guiding principles, a ten-step operating model, and specific governance safeguards to ensure community co-production and prevent knowledge extraction. The paper provides practical method pairings, such as combining heat sensors with social diaries, to create 'boundary objects' that maintain both technical precision and social meaning for policymakers.

An event attribution study on the October 2025 floods in eastern Mexico found that the onset of La Niña heightened the likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall. While climate models and observational datasets showed conflicting trends regarding the long-term impact of climate change on regional rainfall, the study emphasizes that vulnerability was amplified by rapid urbanization, informal settlements, and chronic underinvestment in indigenous and rural communities.

An event attribution study by World Weather Attribution found that human-induced climate change, primarily from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, has increased the intensity of 30-day maximum rainfall in northern Pakistan by approximately 15%. The study highlights that while the event had a return period of about five years, the resulting high death toll—300 fatalities nationwide as of August 3, 2025, including 140 children—was exacerbated by rapid urbanization, informal settlements, and poor building code enforcement. The report emphasizes a significant funding gap for adaptation, noting that Pakistan requires US$152 billion for adaptation between 2023 and 2030, much of which remains unfinanced.

The report examines how urban green space access is often socially determined by income, gender, and age, particularly in rapidly growing cities in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It highlights that lower-income communities often prioritize provisioning services—such as food and fuel—over the aesthetic or health-related benefits typically emphasized in high-income contexts. The authors argue that top-down planning frequently fails these populations and can lead to gentrification or social opposition. Using a case study from the Nakuru River area in Kenya, the report identifies systemic barriers to community-led management, including unclear governmental responsibilities, funding shortfalls, and the influence of external NGOs. It concludes that equitable urban greening requires integrating infrastructure improvements and employment opportunities with participatory design that includes women, youth, and people with disabilities.

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) examines the complex nexus of climate change, migration, and justice. It argues that climate change acts as a risk multiplier that interacts with socio-economic and political factors rather than being a sole driver of migration. The document identifies eight key challenges—including the oversimplification of the climate-conflict-migration link, the risks of instrumentalizing migration as adaptation, and the impacts of slow-onset events—and proposes interdisciplinary, rights-based solutions. SEI highlights its strengths in analyzing transboundary climate impacts, conducting grounded comparative research to shift power dynamics, and fostering global cooperation for sustainable livelihoods through tools like AidAtlas and Trase.

Dar es Salaam is one of Africa's fastest-growing cities and Tanzania's economic hub, though it faces significant challenges in infrastructure and governance. While the city's GDP is growing and it leads the country in startups and telecommunications, it is characterized by high levels of informality, with 70% of the population living in informal settlements. Public services such as water, sanitation, and waste management are underperforming, and the city is highly vulnerable to flooding and urban heat. Governance is heavily centralized, with local authorities relying on the national government for approximately 75% to 90% of their revenue, severely limiting their fiscal autonomy and ability to address local needs.

The Harare City Profiling Report 2025 details the challenges facing Zimbabwe's capital, characterized by rapid informal urban growth, severe infrastructure decay, and a strained relationship between the opposition-led city council and the national government. While Harare serves as the country's economic hub, it suffers from critical gaps in water, sanitation, and waste management, with a significant portion of the population living in informal settlements. The report highlights a severe fiscal crisis where the city relies almost entirely on its own limited revenue sources while facing low payment compliance and high levels of non-revenue water.

The Maputo metropolitan area, with a population of 2.9 million, serves as Mozambique's primary economic and political hub but faces significant challenges in service delivery and infrastructure. While the city shows economic growth and improving health indices, it is characterized by high levels of informal settlements, inadequate sanitation, and a fragmented local government system with limited functional autonomy. Key infrastructure projects like the Maputo-Katembe bridge have improved connectivity, but the region remains one of the poorest primary cities in the SADC region, with a heavy reliance on charcoal for cooking and a high prevalence of waterborne diseases among children.

African cities face extreme climate vulnerability, with 83% rated at 'extreme risk', yet they are largely bypassed by the global climate financial architecture. The document highlights that while cities generate 80% of global GDP and are first responders in disasters, they are not parties to international conventions like the UNFCCC. It urges cities to conduct comprehensive vulnerability assessments—including non-economic loss and damage—and to leverage city networks and multi-level governance to access the Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), the Warsaw International Mechanism, and the Santiago Network. The brief recommends that national governments integrate urban loss and damage into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to improve funding access and implementation.

The report examines the landscape of urban resilience solutions in informal contexts across the Global South, finding that while diverse solutions exist, most are in early development stages. It highlights the critical role of philanthropic and research grants for early-stage testing and notes that these interventions often yield co-benefits in sustainable development, health, and gender equity.

The Rodrigo Bueno neighborhood in Buenos Aires transitioned from an informal settlement facing high climatic risks and eviction threats to a resilient community through a collaborative strategy initiated in 2016. The Buenos Aires Housing Institute utilized a 'Territorial Team' to build trust with residents over eight years, leading to the formal recognition of land ownership in 2017 and the construction of 611 energy-efficient housing units with solar-powered water heating. Climate resilience efforts included canal remediation with a stormwater control system and a retaining wall to mitigate flooding. Additionally, the project fostered economic opportunities, such as the La Vivera Organica plant nursery founded in 2019, which provides local produce and connects the community to the broader city.

The Action Against Covid-19 Transmission in Nairobi (ACT Nairobi) project utilized community 'champions' to create murals, comics, music, puppetry, and digital stories to communicate health messages. The project found that messaging from trusted local sources tailored to the local context is more effective at combating misinformation. The initiative resulted in long-term capacity building, including the formation of the Zindua Creative Organisation.

The case study examines how the 2020 flooding of Lake Naivasha and subsequent water level rise exacerbated vulnerabilities in the Kihoto informal settlement. Findings indicate that the combined impact of floods, displacement, and the COVID-19 pandemic severely eroded long-term resilience, particularly for women aged 18-35 and those employed in horticulture and agriculture. The report highlights that a lack of official response capacity and limited access to basic services like sanitation and healthcare further increased displacement risks and slowed economic recovery.

The paper examines how the 2020 flooding of Lake Naivasha displaced approximately 500 people in the Kihoto informal settlement. It finds that vulnerability is driven less by environmental factors and more by socio-economic marginalization, including precarious employment in horticulture and tourism, lack of secure land tenure, and a deficiency in official disaster response. The study highlights a 'double tragedy' where flooding coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, eroding long-term resilience and crippling local informal savings groups (chamas). Findings indicate that women aged 18-35 suffered the highest rates of unemployment post-disaster. The authors argue for vulnerability reduction through livelihood diversification, investment in basic infrastructure, and inclusive, co-produced risk governance.

The 'Roof Over Our Heads' (ROOH) campaign, launched at COP27, focuses on improving housing and living conditions for people in informal settlements in the Global South. The initiative seeks long-term transformation through community empowerment, incremental upgrading, retrofitting, and peer learning, while collaborating with stakeholders and policymakers to secure resources and implement climate-resilient solutions.

The document reviews Rwanda's progress in establishing a monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) system for climate adaptation in the human settlement and transport sectors. It evaluates seven specific indicators from the 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), identifying gaps in data quality, consistency, and the ability to track informal settlements. While systems like the WASH MIS and urban dynamic maps exist, the report notes they are not yet fully operational or comprehensive. Recommendations include expanding urban mapping, aligning indicators with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and developing dedicated rural monitoring systems.

The report finds that while a diverse range of urban resilience solutions exist in the Global South's informal settlements and economies, most are in early development stages and heavily reliant on philanthropic funding. It highlights a significant gap in private sector investment and municipal buy-in, while noting that these interventions often yield co-benefits in health, gender equity, and livelihoods. The document recommends that municipalities integrate informal settlements into city plans and that funders coordinate to streamline access for small-scale innovators.

The GRP 2024–2029 Strategy focuses on three transformative opportunities: regenerative food systems, reimagined finance flows, and community-led resilience. The partnership aims to scale locally-led innovations and bridge the adaptation finance gap, which is currently five to ten times lower than required for developing countries. Key goals include transforming food and financial systems, scaling formal-informal collaborations, increasing transdisciplinary learning, and embedding resilience in the private sector. Geographically, the strategy prioritises sub-Saharan Africa, South and South East Asia, and Small Island Developing States in the Pacific and Caribbean.

The document examines the role of urban informality—including unplanned settlements, unregistered economic activities, and unrecognized governance—in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change in southern Africa. It argues that while informality is often invisible or politically challenging, it provides critical services and livelihoods where formal systems fail. The brief recommends that city governments use 'bridging organizations' (such as NGOs and academic institutions) to mediate between formal and informal systems, create inclusive participatory spaces for innovative governance, and address the inequitable distribution of burdens and benefits associated with informal activities. Case studies from Cape Town, Malawi, Harare, and South African waste pickers illustrate how community-led responses and innovative finance can build resilience.

The author argues that the South African government has neglected urban land reform in favor of agricultural land distribution, leaving urban youth and the poor in precarious informal settlements. The letter calls for the adoption of an urban land policy and the signing of the Expropriation Bill to unlock idle land and provide secure housing and economic opportunities for the youth.