Search Climate Insights Directory

The report describes the technical framework of WeatherPower v3.0, which uses a 0.05° grid of weather data (wind speed and solar irradiance) and installed capacity data to estimate electricity generation for 'Yesterday', 'Today', and 'Tomorrow'. It outlines the data sources for utility and residential solar and wind capacities, the mathematical power curves used to calculate generation, and the reporting metrics used to contextualize the results, such as CO2 emissions avoided and equivalent homes powered. The document also includes a validation study comparing its wind generation estimates against actual data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

The report analyzes the gap between Canada's GDP and GHG emissions, noting that while national decoupling has occurred, significant regional disparities exist. It highlights that Canada's economy remains more carbon-intensive than other developed nations and suggests three primary pathways for achieving low-carbon growth: reducing emissions intensity, reallocating resources, and accelerating the growth of low-carbon firms.

In 2019, wind and solar generated 8.2% of global electricity, with the EU leading at 18%. The report highlights that wind and solar are now the cheapest new generation sources for two-thirds of the global population and that electricity grids remained stable during the 2020 Covid-19 lockdowns even as renewable shares reached record highs in countries like Denmark (65%), Germany (45%), and Greece (41%). To limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees, the report notes that coal's market share must drop from 35% to 8% by 2030, requiring wind and solar's share to increase to approximately 29%.

Using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), this research note assesses how different GDP outlooks from Goldman Sachs, the EIA, and the IMF affect U.S. energy demand and emissions. It finds that while 2020 emissions may drop by 7% to 11% relative to 2019, these reductions are primarily driven by the transportation sector and are expected to rebound to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, resulting in no material impact on cumulative emissions through 2050.

The document analyzes the energy transition in North Africa, noting that electricity generation must nearly double by 2030 to meet growing demand. While the region is expanding renewable energy capacity and implementing efficiency regulations, natural gas is projected to remain the dominant power source by 2030 unless international financial support and technology transfer accelerate. The author highlights a tension between the region's low historical emissions and its high vulnerability to climate change, warning that insufficient climate finance from developed countries risks the region's ability to meet its Paris Agreement commitments.

The Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment and other partners urge the Canadian government to tighten electricity standards within the Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS). They argue that the proposed standards for coal and natural gas are too lenient, effectively subsidizing the coal industry and undermining Canada's commitment to the Powering Past Coal Alliance. The authors propose a standard of 370 t of CO2e/GWh for existing facilities and 0 for new ones, suggesting that the Climate Action Incentive be increased to protect consumers from potential price increases resulting from more stringent standards.

The policy brief examines the disproportionate dominance of South Africa within SADC and proposes a model of 'regional champions'—member states taking lead roles in specific sectors—to foster more equitable regional integration. It analyses current power dynamics using economic, military, and diplomatic metrics, identifying potential leaders in industrialisation, infrastructure, and security. The author suggests that South Africa can reduce its regional hegemony and the associated accusations of 'bullying' by supporting a more distributed leadership structure based on the comparative advantages of other member states.

The document analyzes the energy crisis in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) regions, highlighting a significant gap between electricity generation and demand. It identifies key obstacles, including inadequate infrastructure investment, the insolvency of national utilities due to low tariffs, and the disproportionate influence of South Africa's coal-dominated energy system. The authors argue that while energy crises often push states toward inward-looking policies, regional cooperation, harmonized regulation, and transboundary projects offer the most viable path to energy security and economic development.

Nigeria faces a severe energy crisis with 60-70% of its population lacking regular electricity access and an average output of 5,000 MW against an installed capacity of 12,522 MW. The report identifies critical bottlenecks including a non-cost-reflective tariff regime, a N1 trillion revenue shortfall as of December 2016, and significant gas flaring despite the country ranking 9th globally in natural gas reserves. While hydropower provided approximately 32% of supply in 2015, other renewables like solar and wind remain underdeveloped. The author recommends the total deregulation of the gas sector, universal metering to close a gap of 4.09 million customers, and the implementation of the renewable energy masterplan to achieve a 10% renewable energy contribution by 2025.

The report argues that the cost of the low-carbon energy transition can be minimized by correctly allocating investment risks—such as construction, price, and curtailment—between private investors, public entities, and consumers. It introduces a framework to identify key risks based on technology and country context, select an appropriate ownership model, and use specific instruments (like guarantees or Feed-in Tariffs) to fill risk gaps. Case studies suggest that optimizing risk allocation could reduce levelized costs by 10% for onshore wind in New York and 30-40% for solar in India.

The City of Cape Town (CoCT) is challenging the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) over the interpretation of section 34 of the Electricity Control Act (ECA). NERSA maintains that a Ministerial determination is required before it can license an independent power producer (IPP) to generate new capacity. The CoCT argues that section 34 is an empowering provision that does not preclude others from establishing generation capacity if licensed, and further contends that the section is unconstitutional as it interferes with the city's duty to provide electricity to its inhabitants.

The report analyzes the climate impact of electric vehicles (EVs) based on the electricity sources used for charging across different U.S. regions. It finds that while EVs generally produce fewer emissions than gasoline cars, their full potential depends on decarbonizing the power grid by shifting from coal and natural gas to renewable energy. The document also highlights the inherent efficiency of electric drive and the synergistic potential between EVs and renewable energy integration.

The Czech Republic has seen a significant decline in coal production and employment since 1990, with the share of coal in primary energy production falling from 89% to 58% by 2014. The transition has been characterized by the privatization of mines, the imposition of ecological territorial limits in the North Bohemian Brown Coal Basin, and state-funded environmental remediation. While the broader economic transformation is viewed as successful, specific mining regions have faced social isolation and economic distress. Future energy policy aims to further reduce coal's share in electricity and heat, favoring nuclear power and renewables.

The document examines the Dutch coal experience, starting with the state-managed closure of domestic mines in Limburg (1965-1974) driven by the discovery of natural gas and political shifts. It details the social engineering and subsidies used to transition 75,000 workers, noting that while the region eventually diversified, the process was lengthy and marked by economic crises. The study then analyzes the 'return of coal' in the 1970s, where policy shifted toward imported coal to diversify energy security after the oil crises, leading to a lasting reliance on coal-fired power plants. It concludes that current climate targets and court rulings now clash with this path-dependency, creating a risk of stranded assets in modern coal plants.

The report establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) GHG emissions baseline for Pakistan, projecting total emissions to reach 768 Mt CO2e by 2030. Agriculture is identified as the largest emission source, accounting for over 40% of emissions in 2012. The energy sector is further divided into residential, commercial, industrial, transport, and electricity generation. The analysis highlights significant data gaps in agriculture, LULUCF, and waste sectors, and concludes that GDP growth is the primary driver of future emission levels, with a high-growth scenario potentially increasing 2030 emissions by 36% relative to the reference case.

The document establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) GHG emission reference case for Pakistan, projecting emissions from 2000 to 2030. It identifies agriculture as the largest emission source and analyzes how variations in GDP growth and autonomous energy efficiency improvements (AEEI) impact future emission levels. The reference case assumes an average annual GDP growth rate of 6% between 2015 and 2030.

The document outlines the use of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to model the impact of the Clean Power Plan and federal tax credits. It specifies adjustments made to standard EIA cost and performance assumptions for various energy technologies, including wind, solar, coal, and nuclear, and defines three primary analysis scenarios: a Reference Case, a Clean Energy Transition Case, and a Clean Power Plan Only Case.

The document is a formal request to the U.S. House Committee on Ways and Means to permanently extend and increase the value of the Section 45Q Tax Credit for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration. The authors argue that the credit is essential for incentivizing carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) at industrial facilities and power plants, and that current uncertainty regarding its expiration deters private investment. They highlight that CCUS is critical for meeting global mid-century greenhouse gas emission goals and for expanding domestic oil production through enhanced oil recovery (EOR).

The document analyzes the transition from conventional low-pressure cogeneration to high pressure cogeneration (HPC) in Pakistan's sugar industry. While Pakistan has the potential to generate 1000 MW of electricity from its 4.4 million metric tonnes of annual bagasse, adoption is hindered by high costs, technical risks, and regulatory gaps. The study highlights the experiences of Almoiz Sugar Mills, which faced initial failures, and JDW, which successfully integrated 53 MW into the national grid. It concludes that scaling low-emission strategies requires leadership from industry champions and improved risk profiling to attract investment.

The document analyzes clean energy targets communicated by eight of the world's top GHG emitters. It finds that if these plans are fully achieved, total annual clean energy supply across these regions will more than double by 2030, increasing from 8,900 TWh/year in 2012 to 19,900 TWh/year. This represents a level 17 percent higher than Reference Scenario projections. The analysis breaks down these gains across renewable energy supply, electricity generation, electrical capacity, and nuclear energy, noting that nuclear supply in China, India, and Mexico is set to increase nearly tenfold by 2030.