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The document examines the socio-economic and political challenges of phasing out coal in Indonesia, highlighting the role of artificial price caps, political 'revolving doors', and limited government planning capacity. It proposes the creation of a Just Energy Transition Support Facility under Bappenas to coordinate governance, finance, and economic diversification, while advocating for the removal of coal subsidies and the reform of the electricity market to favor renewable energy.

The report analyzes the crisis in La Jagua de Ibirico, Cesar, triggered by Prodeco's 2021 renunciation of mining titles. It highlights a severe mismatch between the high social, environmental, and economic impacts of mine closures and the limited legal competencies and financial resources of municipal governments. The document details the collapse of the local economy, significant loss of tax revenue, and persistent environmental liabilities, while proposing the creation of a permanent subregional fund and the strengthening of local institutional capacities to manage a transition beyond coal.

The research paper examines the role of vertical industrial policies in Africa, contrasting them with horizontal policies and global value chain (GVC) theories. It highlights how Nigeria and Morocco successfully developed their cement sectors through targeted government interventions, while noting that replicating these specific tools in other sectors, such as sugar and tomato paste in Nigeria, has failed due to different raw material coordination needs.

The document analyzes the June 2024 sale of 1.55 billion Saudi Aramco shares, classifying it as a Secondary Share Offering (SSO) where funds benefit the Saudi government rather than the company. While distinguishing SSOs from Primary Share Offerings (PSO) that provide direct capital for expansion, the author argues that financial institutions should avoid both to prevent supporting fossil fuel developers and increasing the attractiveness of oil and gas stocks.

The report finds that many of the world's largest fossil fuel producers fail to address the transition of the fossil fuel sector in their climate plans. It argues that third-generation NDCs must include specific targets, pathways, and policies to wind down production in alignment with the COP 28 agreement to ensure a just and orderly transition.

The report warns that Nigeria's 'decade of gas' strategy, involving a planned USD 18.5bn investment in LNG infrastructure, risks creating stranded assets as global demand is forecast to fall by 2030. While Nigeria is currently the world's sixth largest LNG exporter, the report argues that prioritizing LNG may hinder economic diversification, increase fossil fuel subsidies, and expose the economy to external price fluctuations and climate-driven demand declines in Europe.

The document argues that a just transition requires wealthy, high-emitting nations to phase out fossil fuels first and fastest while providing financial and technological support to less wealthy countries. It outlines a broad menu of policy tools across resource management, financial markets, fiscal and monetary policy, economic diversification, and global governance to manage the decline of fossil fuel production and consumption equitably.

The report analyzes the current state of fossil fuel production references in the climate commitments of the 20 largest producers and provides a framework for including production phase-outs in future NDCs and LT-LEDS. It finds that most producers either omit production plans or signal continued extraction, which contradicts 1.5°C-compatible scenarios. The authors propose five key elements for new commitments: background production data, phase-out targets, restrictive policies, just transition planning, and equity-based international cooperation.

The document outlines the necessity of a Global Just Transition to phase out fossil fuels by 2050, emphasizing the disproportionate economic burden on developing nations. It proposes a framework for financing this transition through new multilateral funds, the redirection of USD 5.9 trillion in annual fossil fuel subsidies, and systemic reforms to debt, taxation, and international financial institutions.

The document examines human capital as a component of comprehensive wealth in Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Trinidad and Tobago. It finds that while Indonesia and Ethiopia saw significant growth between 1995 and 2020, this progress stalled recently. Trinidad and Tobago experienced a severe decline after 2008, erasing previous gains. The authors argue that diversifying human capital away from dominant sectors—such as agriculture in Ethiopia and services in Indonesia—and investing in health, education, and data capacity are essential for long-term prosperity.

The report examines produced capital—human-made assets used in production—across Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Trinidad and Tobago from 1995 to 2020. It finds that while produced capital has grown, levels remain low compared to developed nations and are heavily concentrated in a few sectors, such as petroleum in Trinidad and Tobago and manufacturing and real estate in Ethiopia and Indonesia. This concentration creates economic risks and hinders the transition to renewable energy and sustainable agriculture. The authors argue that the lack of regular measurement of produced capital by national statistical offices leaves policy-makers blind to these structural challenges, underscoring the need to move beyond GDP toward comprehensive wealth metrics.

The report finds that while Trinidad and Tobago's GDP grew between 1995 and 2020, its real comprehensive wealth per capita has declined by 36% since the 2008 global recession. This divergence is attributed to an over-reliance on fossil fuel assets, which have seen a nearly 98% loss in value over the study period. The analysis highlights a 'Dutch Disease' effect, where investment in the petroleum sector has crowded out agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Human capital, the largest component of wealth, also declined by 29% from its 2008 peak. The report recommends that the government integrate comprehensive wealth measures into official policy-making to diversify the economy and ensure long-term sustainability.

The African Union is pursuing a long-term goal of customs, monetary, and fiscal union. While the AfCFTA has seen initial tariff offers, progress in liberalising intra-African tariffs remains limited. Achieving monetary union requires the convergence of diverse exchange rate regimes toward an intermediate managed float or crawling peg referenced to a common currency like the XDR. Fiscal stability is hindered by persistent deficits and debt burdens, necessitating countercyclical debt rules and economic diversification to reduce reliance on volatile commodity exports.

The document analyzes the socio-economic and political challenges of transitioning away from thermal coal in the Colombian Caribbean. It highlights the tension between national economic reliance on coal exports and the local need for socio-ecological transformation. The paper identifies significant barriers, including high regional fiscal dependence on royalties, environmental liabilities from unplanned mine closures, and a centralized power structure that often excludes local communities from decision-making. Using the case of La Jagua de Ibirico, it illustrates the crisis triggered by abrupt mining suspensions, emphasizing the urgency of planned closures and economic diversification to avoid systemic collapse in coal-dependent municipalities.

The report analyzes Mozambique's development prospects through 2043 using the International Futures (IFs) modeling platform. It finds that under the current trajectory, Mozambique is unlikely to meet most of its national development goals due to governance failures, infrastructure gaps, and low agricultural productivity. While liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are expected to boost GDP, they are not projected to significantly reduce extreme poverty without broader structural reforms. The report evaluates eight sectoral scenarios, concluding that infrastructure investment has the highest impact on GDP growth, while a combined approach across all sectors—including agriculture, governance, and trade—offers the most substantial improvements in poverty reduction and per capita income.

The report estimates that an immediate low-carbon transition would result in a cumulative annual economic impact of INR 725.9 billion (USD 8.7 billion) for stakeholders in Jharkhand. The most significant losses are concentrated in the solid fossil fuel mining sector, which would see an annual impact of INR 608.3 billion, compared to INR 117.6 billion for the power generation sector. Key fiscal risks include a potential 5% decline in state revenue receipts and an erosion of 7% of the state's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) due to livelihood losses. The analysis highlights the vulnerability of indirect and contractual workers who lack the severance benefits available to direct employees. To mitigate these effects, the report recommends that state-owned enterprises diversify into green hydrogen, energy storage, and solar energy, while the state government develops a comprehensive Just Transition plan focusing on reskilling and social safety nets.

The briefing contends that fossil fuel extraction in Africa has failed to provide energy access, with 600 million people remaining without power while resources are exported. It highlights that Africa possesses 39% of the global renewable energy potential but lacks the investment and technology to harness it. The document proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on non-proliferation, fair phase-out, and a just transition to provide the international framework needed to shift financing from fossil fuels to renewables and ensure a just energy transition for the continent.

The report examines the pathways for a just energy transition in the Pacific, highlighting that while 14 Pacific Island Countries (PICs) contribute only 0.23% of global emissions, they are disproportionately affected by climate change. It estimates the upfront cost of replacing fossil fuel electricity generation in eight profiled PICs between $691 million and $1 billion USD. The document argues that a just transition must go beyond technology swaps to include economic diversification, poverty eradication, and the protection of workers, particularly in Papua New Guinea's fossil fuel sector. It also warns of a 'double exposure' where the region faces both climate impacts and potential environmental damage from increased mining of Energy Transition Metals (ETMs).

The document analyzes Eswatini's current state, highlighting low governance scores in voice and accountability, the historical impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on life expectancy, a high economic dependency on South Africa, and a growing public desire for democratic reform among its predominantly young population.

The report analyzes South Africa's Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) using a 'two-level game' framework to examine the interaction between international diplomacy and domestic politics. While the JETP provided a country-led platform to articulate financial needs and accelerated conversations on NDC implementation, it has faced significant hurdles. These include a lack of transparency from the International Partners Group (IPG), a contested domestic political landscape characterized by ministerial 'turf wars', and a financial package heavily weighted toward loans rather than grants. The study highlights that the JETP's success depends on South Africa's ability to build institutional capacity and deliver on implementation to maintain international credibility, while the IPG must provide more transparent and justice-oriented funding.