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The report argues that new natural gas developments in Appalachia are high-risk investments due to low domestic prices and the global transition toward low-carbon energy. Analysis of 216 prospective gas fields indicates that average 2020 prices for gas and oil do not support widespread expansion. The authors highlight that deep decarbonization consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely keep gas prices below the $3/Mbtu threshold required for average profitability, potentially rendering new fields and associated petrochemical infrastructure, such as ethane crackers, unprofitable.

The report identifies a $1 trillion stranded asset risk associated with 212,000 km of planned oil and gas pipeline expansions. It highlights that gas dominates new developments, with 82.7% of pipelines in development carrying gas. The U.S. and China are leading in capacity and length growth, respectively. The document argues that this expansion is incompatible with net-zero commitments and will lock in significant CO2 emissions, while noting a trend of increasing social and legal opposition to such projects.

The document highlights a significant misalignment between government energy production plans and Paris Agreement goals, noting that governments planned to extract 60% more oil, 70% more gas, and 280% more coal by 2030 than is consistent with a 1.5°C pathway. It suggests that NDCs and LT-LEDS can be used to communicate pathways, targets, and policy measures to manage the transition away from fossil fuels while ensuring a just transition for affected workers and communities.

The Land Transport Criteria Version 2 establishes a framework for certifying green bonds in the transport sector, focusing on quantitative emissions thresholds and the exclusion of fossil-fuel-intensive assets. It prioritizes zero-direct-emissions vehicles and infrastructure, while setting specific benchmarks for passenger and freight transport to align with the Paris Agreement and the EU Taxonomy. The document details eligibility for various assets, including rail, road transport, and supporting infrastructure, while explicitly excluding biofuel vehicles and dedicated fossil fuel transport.

The document critiques the Coal Replacement Bonus and the South Bonus introduced in Germany's Coal Phase-out Law, arguing that they overcompensate gas-based CHP plants, risk creating a carbon lock-in effect, and may delay the phase-out of hard coal by offering more attractive financial incentives than closure auctions.

The document examines how market price support and carbon tax exemptions sustain Sasol's coal-to-liquid operations in South Africa. It estimates that in 2019, these support measures totaled ZAR 8.05 billion, contributing to carbon lock-in and significant environmental externalities, including the operation of the world's largest single point source of greenhouse gases.

The document outlines a framework for establishing comprehensive net-zero targets, emphasizing the need for all-sector and all-gas coverage, the setting of separate emissions reduction targets to avoid over-reliance on carbon removals, and the importance of transparent communication and participatory design processes.

The report argues that a successful global low-carbon transition depends on addressing equity concerns to reduce resistance and ensure fairness. It distills seven principles from literature and historical case studies: actively encouraging decarbonization, avoiding carbon lock-in, supporting affected regions, supporting workers and communities, remediating environmental damage, addressing social inequalities, and ensuring inclusive planning. The authors emphasize that these principles must be pursued in parallel and that the need for social support does not justify delaying decarbonization. Historical analysis shows that poorly managed industrial declines lead to poverty, out-migration, and political instability, often with the public sector bearing the costs of private-sector environmental liabilities.

The document establishes a framework for evaluating 'high-quality' carbon credits across six quality objectives: robust GHG impact determination, avoidance of double counting, addressing non-permanence, facilitating the transition to net zero, strong institutional arrangements, and positive environmental and social impacts. It details specific criteria for each, such as additionality, corresponding adjustments under the Paris Agreement, and the avoidance of carbon lock-in, to guide buyers in a complex market.

A commentary by the Think Sustainable Europe network urging the European Council to ensure recovery plans are based on scientific evidence, strengthen resilience, protect vulnerable populations, avoid carbon lock-in, and provide sufficient green funding. The authors propose an independent green recovery scrutiny board to monitor the adequacy of these plans.

The report evaluates the energy transition in Argentina's power sector, highlighting the need to align long-term Paris Agreement temperature goals with NDC processes to avoid carbon lock-in. It identifies opportunities for leadership in renewables-based hydrogen and synthetic fuels, while noting that grid limitations are the primary short-term barrier to increasing renewable energy participation.

The document examines the role of sustainable finance taxonomies and national climate strategies in tracking and mobilizing climate finance. It specifically highlights the EU Taxonomy as a potential tool for implementing climate finance landscape methodology and argues that linking national strategies with investment landscapes can help avoid carbon lock-in and bridge the gap between current financial flows and low-emission transition goals.

The report argues that to meet the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goals, most countries must reach net-zero emissions by 2050 or shortly thereafter, requiring immediate sector-specific planning. It identifies five critical sectors—power, industry, transport, buildings, and agriculture, forestry and other land-use—and warns that delaying strategic choices until after 2030 risks 'carbon lock-in' and inefficient, costly infrastructure transitions. The document advocates for a multi-disciplinary approach to planning, combining scenario modelling to translate global goals into feasible policies, Political Economy Analysis (PEA) to navigate stakeholder interests and political feasibility, and a focus on transparency, finance, and governance to mobilise investment and ensure systemic implementation.

The document outlines a framework for G20 nations to align their near-term climate pledges (NDCs) with mid-century visions (LTSs) to achieve Paris Agreement goals. It emphasizes that such alignment avoids carbon lock-in, supports just transitions, and unlocks economic benefits, including a potential US$26 trillion in global benefits by 2030. The paper provides guidance on NDC implementation, the process for updating pledges by 2020, and the necessity of G20 support for developing countries to overcome capacity and financing gaps.

ClientEarth argues that Lloyd's of London's current risk management is inadequate regarding coal assets, noting that its Coal Exclusion Policy only covers 2.5% of assets. The letter highlights the Carmichael coalmine as a high-risk project due to potential stranded asset risks and a lack of a 'social licence to operate', which could lead to significant insurance claims. ClientEarth asserts that continuing to enable coal undermines the insurance business model by fueling climate-driven natural catastrophes, and calls for public disclosure of risk management criteria.

The document highlights a 'production gap' where current fossil fuel extraction trajectories far exceed carbon budgets for 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. It advocates for a combination of supply-side measures—such as exploration moratoriums and subsidy removals—and demand-side policies to achieve cost-effective emission reductions and a just transition for affected workers.

The 2019 Production Gap Report reveals that global fossil fuel production plans are significantly incompatible with the Paris Agreement goals. By 2030, planned production is projected to be 50% higher than consistent with a 2°C pathway and 120% higher than a 1.5°C pathway, with the largest gap occurring in coal. The report identifies that this gap is wider than the global emissions gap because governments continue to support production through subsidies, direct investment, and ambitious national targets. It examines 10 key producer countries and suggests 'supply-side' policies—such as extraction bans, subsidy reform, and just transition plans—to close the gap. The report emphasizes that international cooperation through the UN climate process and financial institutions is essential to manage an equitable decline in fossil fuel extraction.

The document argues for a shift from simply mobilizing 'climate finance' to ensuring all investments are 'Paris-aligned', meaning they actively support limiting global warming to well below 2°C. It compares MDB eligibility typologies against a framework of 'aligned', 'misaligned', and 'conditional' investments. Analysis of energy and transport sectors shows that while about half of MDB typologies are aligned, two-thirds of the remainder are only conditionally aligned, necessitating stricter benchmarks and fuel-specific criteria to avoid carbon lock-in.

The report argues that early action on just energy transitions can minimize negative impacts on workers and communities while maximizing opportunities in low-carbon sectors. It outlines a 'How-To' framework consisting of four key stages: understanding the political economy context, identifying champions, making the case through inclusive communication, and implementing complementary policies such as retraining and economic diversification. The document emphasizes that a just transition is not a fixed set of rules but a negotiated process based on social dialogue and tripartism. Through case studies, it demonstrates various approaches: Canada's use of a high-level Task Force, Egypt and Indonesia's reallocation of fossil fuel subsidies into social and infrastructure programs, and Poland's use of 'golden handshakes' and regional support for mining communes. It concludes that overcoming 'carbon lock-in' requires transparent communication, tangible short-term benefits, and the mobilization of dedicated funding from sources like energy taxes or subsidy reforms.

The briefing examines the risks associated with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Southeast Asia, particularly regarding carbon-intensive energy projects and hydropower dams. It argues that current investment patterns may lead to carbon lock-in and ecological damage. To mitigate these risks, the authors propose a decision-making framework based on transparency, stakeholder participation, and adherence to international sustainable finance standards.