The Production Gap 2019 Report

The 2019 Production Gap Report reveals that global fossil fuel production plans are significantly incompatible with the Paris Agreement goals. By 2030, planned production is projected to be 50% higher than consistent with a 2°C pathway and 120% higher than a 1.5°C pathway, with the largest gap occurring in coal. The report identifies that this gap is wider than the global emissions gap because governments continue to support production through subsidies, direct investment, and ambitious national targets. It examines 10 key producer countries and suggests 'supply-side' policies—such as extraction bans, subsidy reform, and just transition plans—to close the gap. The report emphasizes that international cooperation through the UN climate process and financial institutions is essential to manage an equitable decline in fossil fuel extraction.

• By 2030, global planned fossil fuel production is projected to lead to 39 GtCO2 in emissions, which is 53% (13 GtCO2) more than consistent with a 2°C pathway and 120% (21 GtCO2) more than consistent with a 1.5°C pathway.
• The production gap is most severe for coal; by 2030, planned production exceeds 2°C pathways by 150% (5.2 billion tonnes) and 1.5°C pathways by 280% (6.4 billion tonnes).
• Oil and gas production gaps widen over time due to infrastructure lock-in, with projections for 2040 showing production levels 43% higher for oil and 47% higher for gas than consistent with a 2°C pathway.
• The global production gap is wider than the global emissions gap because planned production levels exceed those consistent with the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• Governments support the expansion of fossil fuels through various mechanisms, including direct budgetary transfers, tax expenditures, research and development funding, and the use of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
• Analysis of 10 key producer countries shows that nearly every national plan for coal, oil, and gas exceeds the 2030 levels projected in the IEA's New Policies Scenario (NPS).
• Several countries have implemented 'supply-side' policies to restrict production, including total or partial bans on oil and gas exploration in Belize, Costa Rica, France, Denmark, and New Zealand, and coal phase-outs in Germany and Spain.
• A 'just transition' is necessary to minimize disruptions for workers and communities dependent on fossil fuels, with some countries like Canada, Germany, Spain, Scotland, and New Zealand already developing transition planning processes.
• International cooperation can be leveraged through the UN climate process via the global stocktake, NDCs, and long-term low-emissions development strategies (LEDS) to align production with climate goals.
• Multilateral development banks have begun shifting financial support away from fossil fuels, with the World Bank Group announcing an end to direct financial support for upstream oil and gas after 2019.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2019). The Production Gap 2019 Report. https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Production-Gap-Report-2019.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. The Production Gap 2019 Report. 2019. https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Production-Gap-Report-2019.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=The Production Gap 2019 Report |date=2019 |url=https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Production-Gap-Report-2019.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2019production, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{The Production Gap 2019 Report}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, url = {https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Production-Gap-Report-2019.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }